And here's why...
292 five-star recruits vs. 16,367 three-star recruits in the time span specified above. There are astronomically more 3* recruits than 5* recruits, which is why any star-ranking discussion has to revolve around percentages in order for it to make any logical sense.
Let's take it a step further. Here is a table of the consensus All-Americans between the 2013 and 2020 seasons that were also in the 2010-2018 recruiting classes.
13.36% of 5* recruits became a consensus All-American
2.4% of 4* recruits became a consensus All-American
.43% of 3* recruits became a consensus All-American
You're right that no recruit's future has been written yet. There are always exceptions to any rule and evaluations are of the utmost importance. But there's a reason every championship-contending coach, including ours, fights like **** to accumulate as much premier talent as humanly possible. When you think you have a stacked position group, land more 5* and high 4* level recruits to compete with them and let the cream rise to the top.
If the star labels really don't mean s***, then why do the same programs that land the best classes every year repeatedly end up in the CFB playoff and dominate the national title scene?