It’s a good question. Hit rates are tough to define because everyone has their own definition.
I think we first have to define what our expectations are for this program. If we’re content with being a Top 25 ish team and occasionally making a run into the Top 15/10,, then that’s one thing. If we want to be a perennial Top 15 team year in and out with the expectation to not only challenge for conference titles, but routinely be a part of the playoff conversation…well that’s another level. It may seem like a small difference, but it’s not.
Personally, my expectations are the latter, and I don’t accept the notion that it’ll take 4-5 years to be in that position as it’s been proven false by a myriad of programs at various levels. Turnarounds can happen within two years. I think the only elite class we’ve brought in was the ‘23 high schoolers. Both portal classes have been underwhelming, and this high school class is as well.
The other thing is hit rates vary…like Bain for example is a hit, but he’s more than that. He’s a superstar in the making. If you get 5-6 of those, they can alter your program dramatically where other lesser “hits” can still come together to form a double-digit win team. We need more superstars and less “he’s good, just not elite”.