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Duke Johnson had the most successful season for a freshman running back in Miami Hurricanes history. That’s a fact.
Also factual is the list of legendary Miami backs to also play immediately include names like James, Portis, McGahee, and Anderson. Yet none came close to matching the versatility and impact Duke provided the Hurricanes in year one. What makes him special is his ability to impact a game on so many different levels. Via the AP’s Tim Reynolds, Duke was one of just two players nationally to have touchdowns by passing, rushing, receiving, and returning.
That’s just wrong.
After gaining eight pounds of muscle this offseason while sliding into a featured role this fall, many pundits are talking Heisman potential. As is Vegas.
According to Bovada, Johnson’s odds to win the 2013 Heisman are currently 16-1. Nine players are above him, and two of those are running backs in Oregon’s De’Anthony Thomas (12-1) and Alabama’s T.J. Yeldon (14-1). For those curious, Miami quarterback Stephen Morris is listed at 33-1.
With fall practice launching this past weekend, let’s look at Johnson’s numbers from a season ago and his outlook for a Heisman-caliber campaign in 2013.
Duke By The Numbers
2nd – Miami ranked only behind Kansas State in kickoff return average (27.4). Duke averaged 31.9 on kickoff returns, also second nationally.
9th – Johnson’s average of 171.7 in all-purpose yardage was second among all freshman nationally to Maryland receiver Stefon Diggs, and ninth overall.
1st – His 947 rushing yards is the highest of any freshman in Canes history.
Heisman Trends
There were no running back finalists for the Heisman this past year, with the award taken home by Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel, the first freshman winner in college football history.
Running back finalists from 2011 included Wisconsin’s Montee Ball and Alabama’s Trent Richardson, with Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III winning the award. Both Ball and Richardson played on teams in BCS games. Ball finished the season with 2,229 yards of total offense and 39 touchdowns through the bowl game, while Richardson finished with 2,017 total yards, and 24 touchdowns.
1 – The number of running backs to win the award dating back to the year 2000, with Alabama’s Mark Ingram winning it in 2009 for the eventual champion Crimson Tide. He finished the season with 1,992 yards from scrimmage (1,658 rushing yards, 334 receiving yards) and 20 total touchdowns.
Of the past 11 winners, all were quarterbacks but one.
Just to be named a finalist, Duke would likely have to meet a few prerequisites in accordance with recent history. First, Miami would have to make it to a BCS Bowl for the first time since 2004. Second, Duke’s stat line would likely have to feature around 2,000 yards of total offense, 20-plus touchdowns, and a healthy resume in the return game, boosting his positional stats.
If those are met, he will be eligible for the conversation. But to become the third Miami Hurricane to win the award, he would need a little help by some lackluster quarterback-play nationally.
Raw Projections
Johnson averaged 14 (13.83, to be exact) touches a game over 12 contests in year one, but Golden wants that number in the 18-20 range this season. For hypothetical reasoning, let’s project his stat line — assuming the same averages — at 20 touches per game through 14 games (12 games plus the ACC championship and a bowl game). Obviously these are no more than rough projections assuming several variables.
Freshman Stats (12 GMS):
139 RUSH, 947 YDS, 27 REC, 221 YDS REC, 13 TOT TD (2 RET TD)
*Projected Sophomore Stats (At 20 touches per game, and with a Bowl Game – 14 GMS):
234 RUSH, 1,591 YDS, 42 REC, 373 YDS, 15 TOT TD
For the sake of the projection we assume he will play 14 games, average 20 touches, and maintain his rushing and receiving averages of 6.8 and 8.2, respectively. Using this math, his 2014 stats project to 1,962 yards of total offense and 15 total touchdowns (Replicating his two kickoff returns for touchdowns). His production as a running back would be nearly identical to Ingram’s successful Heisman year of 2009 sans the touchdowns, when he finished with 1,992 yards and 20 touchdowns. Keep in mind, touchdowns are a highly arbitrary statistic.
Helping Johnson’s case is his polarizing style, considering the award historically rewards the nation’s most tantalizing players. He’s worth the price of admission, and his highlight busting plays attract eyeballs in bunches beyond the Canes faithful.
Far from being considered a bruising back — even after beefing up his 5’9″ frame to nearly 200 pounds — Duke runs with ferocity, utilizing a refined stiff-arm to numb defenders in pursuit. While he’s fast, his game speed exceeds his 4.4 40-time with his elite ability to instantly shift gears. Tackling Duke is much like catching a chicken on speed.
Golden actually said last week he thinks he will be able to play faster this year due to an increase in understanding and knowledge of the game.
He can bleed a defense from any angle, and is undoubtedly among the most dangerous handful of players in the country with the ball in his hands. Duke could feasibly be watching the Heisman Trophy Presentation live from New York, but so much of it depends on the success of his team and whether they are good enough for a BCS Bowl.
His 16-1 odds sound about right, and would seem too low if it weren’t for concerns over the success of his team. No doubting his superstar status, but are any of his peers on the same level? If there is a time for this program to make a leap, this would be the year. The seemingly favorable schedule keeps the Canes in Florida through mid-October. The offense oozes with talent and experience led by a senior quarterback looking to launch himself up the 2014 draft boards. With an average or better defense, 10 wins actually seem doable for the first time in almost a decade.
Soak in every touchdown. Chest-bump every stiff arm. Don’t be bashful with the replay button when Duke makes another aspiring tackler look foolish. Heisman or not, players like Duke Johnson are the reason we love college football.
Enjoy him now because Sunday is coming for him.
http://www.pageqsports.com/2013/08/duke-johnsons-heisman-hype-is-very-real/
Also factual is the list of legendary Miami backs to also play immediately include names like James, Portis, McGahee, and Anderson. Yet none came close to matching the versatility and impact Duke provided the Hurricanes in year one. What makes him special is his ability to impact a game on so many different levels. Via the AP’s Tim Reynolds, Duke was one of just two players nationally to have touchdowns by passing, rushing, receiving, and returning.
That’s just wrong.
After gaining eight pounds of muscle this offseason while sliding into a featured role this fall, many pundits are talking Heisman potential. As is Vegas.
According to Bovada, Johnson’s odds to win the 2013 Heisman are currently 16-1. Nine players are above him, and two of those are running backs in Oregon’s De’Anthony Thomas (12-1) and Alabama’s T.J. Yeldon (14-1). For those curious, Miami quarterback Stephen Morris is listed at 33-1.
With fall practice launching this past weekend, let’s look at Johnson’s numbers from a season ago and his outlook for a Heisman-caliber campaign in 2013.
Duke By The Numbers
2nd – Miami ranked only behind Kansas State in kickoff return average (27.4). Duke averaged 31.9 on kickoff returns, also second nationally.
9th – Johnson’s average of 171.7 in all-purpose yardage was second among all freshman nationally to Maryland receiver Stefon Diggs, and ninth overall.
1st – His 947 rushing yards is the highest of any freshman in Canes history.
Heisman Trends
There were no running back finalists for the Heisman this past year, with the award taken home by Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel, the first freshman winner in college football history.
Running back finalists from 2011 included Wisconsin’s Montee Ball and Alabama’s Trent Richardson, with Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III winning the award. Both Ball and Richardson played on teams in BCS games. Ball finished the season with 2,229 yards of total offense and 39 touchdowns through the bowl game, while Richardson finished with 2,017 total yards, and 24 touchdowns.
1 – The number of running backs to win the award dating back to the year 2000, with Alabama’s Mark Ingram winning it in 2009 for the eventual champion Crimson Tide. He finished the season with 1,992 yards from scrimmage (1,658 rushing yards, 334 receiving yards) and 20 total touchdowns.
Of the past 11 winners, all were quarterbacks but one.
Just to be named a finalist, Duke would likely have to meet a few prerequisites in accordance with recent history. First, Miami would have to make it to a BCS Bowl for the first time since 2004. Second, Duke’s stat line would likely have to feature around 2,000 yards of total offense, 20-plus touchdowns, and a healthy resume in the return game, boosting his positional stats.
If those are met, he will be eligible for the conversation. But to become the third Miami Hurricane to win the award, he would need a little help by some lackluster quarterback-play nationally.
Raw Projections
Johnson averaged 14 (13.83, to be exact) touches a game over 12 contests in year one, but Golden wants that number in the 18-20 range this season. For hypothetical reasoning, let’s project his stat line — assuming the same averages — at 20 touches per game through 14 games (12 games plus the ACC championship and a bowl game). Obviously these are no more than rough projections assuming several variables.
Freshman Stats (12 GMS):
139 RUSH, 947 YDS, 27 REC, 221 YDS REC, 13 TOT TD (2 RET TD)
*Projected Sophomore Stats (At 20 touches per game, and with a Bowl Game – 14 GMS):
234 RUSH, 1,591 YDS, 42 REC, 373 YDS, 15 TOT TD
For the sake of the projection we assume he will play 14 games, average 20 touches, and maintain his rushing and receiving averages of 6.8 and 8.2, respectively. Using this math, his 2014 stats project to 1,962 yards of total offense and 15 total touchdowns (Replicating his two kickoff returns for touchdowns). His production as a running back would be nearly identical to Ingram’s successful Heisman year of 2009 sans the touchdowns, when he finished with 1,992 yards and 20 touchdowns. Keep in mind, touchdowns are a highly arbitrary statistic.
Helping Johnson’s case is his polarizing style, considering the award historically rewards the nation’s most tantalizing players. He’s worth the price of admission, and his highlight busting plays attract eyeballs in bunches beyond the Canes faithful.
Far from being considered a bruising back — even after beefing up his 5’9″ frame to nearly 200 pounds — Duke runs with ferocity, utilizing a refined stiff-arm to numb defenders in pursuit. While he’s fast, his game speed exceeds his 4.4 40-time with his elite ability to instantly shift gears. Tackling Duke is much like catching a chicken on speed.
Golden actually said last week he thinks he will be able to play faster this year due to an increase in understanding and knowledge of the game.
He can bleed a defense from any angle, and is undoubtedly among the most dangerous handful of players in the country with the ball in his hands. Duke could feasibly be watching the Heisman Trophy Presentation live from New York, but so much of it depends on the success of his team and whether they are good enough for a BCS Bowl.
His 16-1 odds sound about right, and would seem too low if it weren’t for concerns over the success of his team. No doubting his superstar status, but are any of his peers on the same level? If there is a time for this program to make a leap, this would be the year. The seemingly favorable schedule keeps the Canes in Florida through mid-October. The offense oozes with talent and experience led by a senior quarterback looking to launch himself up the 2014 draft boards. With an average or better defense, 10 wins actually seem doable for the first time in almost a decade.
Soak in every touchdown. Chest-bump every stiff arm. Don’t be bashful with the replay button when Duke makes another aspiring tackler look foolish. Heisman or not, players like Duke Johnson are the reason we love college football.
Enjoy him now because Sunday is coming for him.
http://www.pageqsports.com/2013/08/duke-johnsons-heisman-hype-is-very-real/
![crossover22[]_[]](https://data.canesinsight.com/avatars/m/2/2075.jpg?1518149361){kind=avatar}
