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- Oct 7, 2012
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RPI is 77. I don't think any team has gotten an at-large bid with an RPI worse than 60.
The RPI issue goes without saying. The RPI will go up by default with 16 more ACC games plus two against FGCU and one against UCF. The real question is if we can get to 35 wins.
Up, yes, but up enough? If we get it into the 50s we'll get in by name recognition alone.
I've gotten pretty good at running a predictive RPI model based on future schedules, and with a 17-8 finish - and based on future opponents' records - I have us at .5612, which is currently good for #45 .
Obviously there are a lot of moving parts that could affect this. We really need to take care of a bunch of road games since they count for more. And unfortunately we need Florida to pick it up in the SEC since OWP is 50% of the metric.
Want to know the disgusting thing? The two Dartmouth losses - if reversed - would have us at #53 right now and still in good shape.
That's good (not the Dartmouth part, that's disgusting...on so many levels). Now we just have to go 17-8. We should, with the schedule, but, we shouldn't have lost 2 of 3 to Dartmouth.