Does anyone have any theories? (on lackluster recruiting)

[KingB02]

...As to why recruiting has been so lackluster thus far? As fans, we all know how this goes...last year we were letting FSU/Gator fans have it for how bad we were killing them in recruiting, now this year we’ve all adopted the “Stars are overrated and our recruits are better than their actual rating” defense. For the record, I have no issue with taking three stars here or there, but it is a little concerning when all but one is a three star with many of them being low three stars, at that. So I’m having a hard time figuring out what’s going on here, and this certainly isn’t up to par with what we’ve come to expect from Mario da God when it comes to recruiting. So is it because last year was such a disaster that we’re paying dearly for it in recruiting? Is there something that has changed with our NIL game, particularly Ruiz? Do we have some guys on staff that just aren’t great recruiters?

 

[k9cane]

Cristobal can't close!!!

 

[Ghandi]

I wanted to wait a few weeks to respond to this one, as it is a question, but I wanted to add some context to what we’re really looking at from a current commit perspective.

Of the 9 current kids on board, 8 of them are 3* or less.

Current 3* who will finish the cycle rated much higher:

*Dylan Day (speed and instincts)
*CWH (speed and balance)
*Vincent Shavers (instinct and knock back power).
*J Minaya plays in a nationally visible league. If he improves his technique, he should be able to move up the rankings

Isiah Thomas has a shot, but I think he’s rated properly as a 3* kid.

Anderson and Russel are rated correctly. I don’t see any of these guys moving up or down substantially thru the season.

/I know, I know. This isn’t a Gata board, but it is something you have to consider for a good chunk of the early commitments.

 

[Ghandi]

We have 9 kids committed so far. 8 are 3*s. I'll bet a few of them will be bumped up to 4*s.

Last year we had 10 kids who committed as 3*s or less and 2 of them ended up getting bumped up to 4*s (Washington and Horton).

I'll bet we'll take at least 25 kids again and we probably currently have 6ish kids that will stay as 3*s.

I should’ve quoted this post instead of just making a new one.

Of the eight (8) 3* kids Miami signed last year:

*Emory Williams showed some underlying skill and in 3yrs could be a G5 starter. That’s a good find. Same thing for Kaleb Spencer. A little stiff on the backend, but he practiced well during the spring.

*Jackson Carver and Antonio Tripp also made it in time for spring and looked like they’ll make a contribution to the team at some point in the next 2-3 seasons.

The other three guys (Kinsler, Pulliam, and Tinilau) and will get here this summer. These guys are TBD.

So even in last years class, you have 4 contributors from a class that has some high end talent already.

 

[PineCo.]

...As to why recruiting has been so lackluster thus far? As fans, we all know how this goes...last year we were letting FSU/Gator fans have it for how bad we were killing them in recruiting, now this year we’ve all adopted the “Stars are overrated and our recruits are better than their actual rating” defense. For the record, I have no issue with taking three stars here or there, but it is a little concerning when all but one is a three star with many of them being low three stars, at that. So I’m having a hard time figuring out what’s going on here, and this certainly isn’t up to par with what we’ve come to expect from Mario da God when it comes to recruiting. So is it because last year was such a disaster that we’re paying dearly for it in recruiting? Is there something that has changed with our NIL game, particularly Ruiz? Do we have some guys on staff that just aren’t great recruiters?

 

[DoctorKrazey]

I appreciate all the responses. I also realize that it’s only May which is why I’m not getting too overly concerned yet...I remember last year our class didn’t start to pop until July or so. Lastly, I also understand that you want to support the kids who are committed which kept me from writing this for a while. I think what kinda threw me off yesterday is when I was looking at 247’s rankings and our average ranking per recruit is lower than Duke and Purdue right now. I get it though...it’s a long ways until signing day and one thing we’ve learned about Mario is you need to have patience. One thing I agree with several posters about is I think this year kids are going to want to see more results on the field before they commit to us, which is why I feel this may be one of our most important seasons in a very long time.

 

[mossmadness]

We are in may. Last year ppl had the same concerns for no reason. If you look around the country, you’ll see most the teams you expect to make up the top 15 in recruiting rankings aren’t there rn..at this time last year Texas tech had a top 3 class..it’s clear you don’t follow recruiting all much..no disrespect. But my advice to you would be follow the visits..for us it’s gunna be June/July. That’s probably when the staff is really gunna push for the elite guys to hope on board

Some of this is true.

But a lot of the usual recruiting powers aren’t there yet because they haven’t taken many commits. But the commits they do take are in line with how elite their classes are and will end up.

Alabama has the 16th ranked class right now. But the average recruit ranking of it is 95. They don’t have a single 3* committed.

That’s usually how it works. Lower programs load up on 3* players, causing them to jump in the early rankings due to volume.

The bigger programs eventually overtake them in the rankings, not just because they start loading up on commits too. But because they start landing their big time ranked commits.

But you’ll never see the big time programs with 9 commits and a .86 average recruit ranking.

 

[AtlAtty]

Some of this is true.

But a lot of the usual recruiting powers aren’t there yet because they haven’t taken many commits. But the commits they do take are in line with how elite their classes are and will end up.

Alabama has the 16th ranked class right now. But the average recruit ranking of it is 95. They don’t have a single 3* committed.

That’s usually how it works. Lower programs load up on 3* players, causing them to jump in the early rankings due to volume.

The bigger programs eventually overtake them in the rankings, not just because they start loading up on commits too. But because they start landing their big time ranked commits.

But you’ll never see the big time programs with 9 commits and a .86 average recruit ranking.

By the logic in your finale a sentence UM should just scrap this year’s recruiting class since it’s too late to have a great class for 2024, as of Memorial Day 2023. We will let Mario and staff know that UM is not a big time program and they should stop trying.

 

[mossmadness]

By the logic in your finale a sentence UM should just scrap this year’s recruiting class since it’s too late to have a great class for 2024, as of Memorial Day 2023. We will let Mario and staff know that UM is not a big time program and they should stop trying.

What?

 

[AtlAtty]

What?

You just wrote that you’ll never see a big time program with 9 commits and a .86 average recruit ranking. You are writing that in reference to where UM’s recruiting class is right now. Which, by your own words, means UM is not a big time program.

 

[Bender]

Lackluster?

 

[Brains]

Wow. Great thread. Love the effort.

 

[WestGA'Cane]

By the logic in your finale a sentence UM should just scrap this year’s recruiting class since it’s too late to have a great class for 2024, as of Memorial Day 2023. We will let Mario and staff know that UM is not a big time program and they should stop trying.

He said you'll never see big time programs with 9 commits and an .86 average recruiting ranking. Not sure I want to take the time to try to verify that. A bit underwhelming to date though, no? Sufficient to say the class is still looking for a headliner.
As far as whether we're a big time program - well the visit list says they're recruiting like one. The bottom line though is results: signed LOI's and on-field results.
Are we a 'big-time' program? You think we are, or is that something we're aspiring to be?

 

[AtlAtty]

He said you'll never see big time programs with 9 commits and an .86 average recruiting ranking. Not sure I want to take the time to try to verify that. A bit underwhelming to date though, no? Sufficient to say the class is still looking for a headliner.
As far as whether we're a big time program - well the visit list says they're recruiting like one. The bottom line though is results: signed LOI's and on-field results.
Are we a 'big-time' program? You think we are, or is that something we're aspiring to be?

I think we are on our way back to being a big time program, and I believe we will be there in 1-2 seasons. But I certainly won’t make a definitive statement as to the state of the football program based on our commitment list as of a May 27.

 

[nickster]

I would reserve judgement on that question until later on. I do believe there is a ton of pressure on Mario to win this year. Last year was probably the most disappointing season I've seen since I've been a fan and season ticket holder back to 1983. I know many of you disagree but the **** is going to hit the fan soon if Marion doesn't win. In todays game it's very tough to recruit with stars consistently if you have losing records. Mario is an elite recruiter but a more the sub game par day game coach. If he loses more often he won't be a elite recruiter. You must win! Let alone the money we are playing players. Overall since Mario took over my grade for him is a C-.

 

[mossmadness]

He said you'll never see big time programs with 9 commits and an .86 average recruiting ranking. Not sure I want to take the time to try to verify that.

The original point/defense of the current recruiting was that, what you see Miami doing, is typical this time of year of all the teams that finish with big time classes. And that’s why you see Texas Tech or whomever with high ranking classes in May, but not in February.

The nice thing is, it doesn’t take that long to verify that that isn’t true. We can look at the current recruiting class rankings.
Miami has 9 commits at an average recruit ranking of 86.9.

Clemson has 8 with an 89

Texas A&M has 6 with 91

OU has 6 with 91

South Carolina has 9 with a 92

Bama has 7 with a 95

UF has 8 with a 94

Auburn has 5 with a 91

All the other recruiting powers have double digit commits and 90+ average recruit rankings.


it’s just not true that every year programs have lower ranked classes in spring because of both number of players and quality of players. It’s purely a numbers problem for them.
Our average recruit ranking isn’t really close to any other major recruiting power right now. This is a unique situation in that it’s both numbers and quality.

Obviously some of these other schools will take more 3* players. And we won’t just keep taking 3* players.

But in the thread with the latest commit, Lance was talking about one thing he does is raise the floor of the class in case Miami misses on some other guys.

That’s not an option now. For the class to be where it needs to be, Mario has to land the 5* and high 4* guys. We almost need a clean sweep from here on out.

Which he’s capable of doing. But you’d like to see a little more room for error.

 

[CT Cane 44]

Not really complicated, Mario **** the bed last year, so it put a little hault to recruiting momentum, everything was in place but the product on field, which wasnt really bad, it was horrendous. Mario is such an elite recruiter that he can overcome alot but his product he placed on field was just that bad, even so.. By sheer will and talent, I still think he will have dominos in place for next couple months to set up what he puts product wise in fall.. Im not gonna blame OC/DC he hand picked with unlimited budget. Its on him, those were his choices..

He set bar soo low last year that now even an 8 win season can create that positive momentum again.. Lets see how it plays out..

I disagree with this entire thing. We recruited like bosses and were so horrible we kept 99% of the class together even when we changed coaches. Mario, highsmith, and company are trying to build a program with hard working tough kids. If fans ( not trying to call you out ) don’t realize that this class will end up being respected just because he’s taken commits from a bunch of 3 star kids early then they can choose to be miserable. Miami will land enough 4 and 5 star kids to be at worst top 15.

We are taking transfers from kids who had 2 or 3 stars from the portal that some are excited about. And what NO one mentions is the fact that with all the talent from last class, and in todays transfer word, you have to mix in more developmental kids

 

[Brooklyndee]

I should’ve quoted this post instead of just making a new one.

Of the eight (8) 3* kids Miami signed last year:

*Emory Williams showed some underlying skill and in 3yrs could be a G5 starter. That’s a good find. Same thing for Kaleb Spencer. A little stiff on the backend, but he practiced well during the spring.

*Jackson Carver and Antonio Tripp also made it in time for spring and looked like they’ll make a contribution to the team at some point in the next 2-3 seasons.

The other three guys (Kinsler, Pulliam, and Tinilau) and will get here this summer. These guys are TBD.

So even in last years class, you have 4 contributors from a class that has some high end talent already.

Bobby

 

[We'retheBoss]

You mean to tell me this wasn't a fraggle thread?

 

[ZoeCane97]

It is apples to apples because it’s the same strategy he’s literally used everywhere. If you’re expecting top classes every year by May you’re going to be sorely disappointed.

We’ve been doing the exact opposite with every coach since Butch and it’s put us in this mess. Why not support a new method and breath of fresh air?

You still think it's apples to apples? Also I never said I expected to have the top class in May. But there's zero momentum. We need it badly. I don't expect every top recruit that visit to commit.

We all know that recruiting has many components, and strategy is definitely key. We also know that winning is a another major component. That strategy needs to be "tweaked" ASAP.

If Mario succeeds we are all better for it. So I'm always going to route for our head coach. But we have to stop this narrative that nothings wrong and "it's just the summer" bs. Something doesn't smell right and I don't like it. Hoping that I'm wrong and your right. All love for my UM family and Go Canes.