So I took a look at all four and five stars from the ‘23 recruiting class on the 247 composite (450 ish kids) and then narrowed it down into some interesting bullet points. Here’s the data broken down into different categories:
Commits that stuck
April: 29/36 (80.56%)
May: 21/27 (77.78%)
June: 62/75 (82.67%)
July: 97/120 (80.3%)
August: 50/57 (87.2%)
Total = 259/315 (82.2%)
- Surprisingly, 27 of the top 450 ish kids committed in 2021, and 23 of them stayed committed (82.2%)
- Similarly, 29 of the top 450 ish kids committed in January, February, or March of 2022; 24 stayed committed (82.8%)
A bit of a preconceived notion that accepting earlier commits results in more de-commitments.
- Oregon was very involved with flipping kids late, as was Auburn (coaching change makes sense here).
- Clemson does the best job of locking their kids up in the summer (mostly June), followed by Ohio State, UGA, and Texas (a bit odd that this cycle is much slower for them)
I will also add that a fair number of these de-commitments were either kids affected by a coaching change (Stanford + Cincinnati were two of the big ones) or kids being dropped (Texas had a few kids end up at Houston or Texas Tech, Alabama had a kid de-commit and wind up with Arizona, Pitt had a D-lineman end up at Notre Dame, Oregon pillaged Northwestern for a defensive back, etc.)
The point here is - if our strategy is "wait til the season"....well that's not the right strategy.
To say July and August are humongous for us is an understatement. Now that it's the end of June and July is approaching, t's time to get this thing rolling. Let's see what Mario has in store.