These are two points I take issue with, though admittedly it might be semantics (or a distinction without any practical difference).
Mario was hired to win, not just recruit. But, IMO the Jimmys and Joes > Xs and Os. Mario's path to winning is clearly through recruiting. I don't think even the staunchest slurper would argue against Mario being a better recruiter/closer HC than he is a game day HC or Xs/Os HC. So if Mario isn't consistently recruiting at a top 10 level (still time on that one... fingers are crossed), I'm not going to expect top 10 results. Stated differently, if he's not recruiting we aren't winning.
As far as the money, that's what programs pay these days for those top 15ish HCs. Regardless, I expect my HC to do his job and win games whether he's making $4 million or $8 million per year. Nobody said, "well, ****, Manny is only making about $4 million/year as a HC, so it's ok if we just win 7 games and Clemson destroys us." Otherwise, I'm not the one paying Mario's salary, so it doesn't enter my calculus for expectations.
But, I do find wonder if in this NIL era we would have been better off spending closer to $40 million on some up-and-coming HC, but then adding another $40 million to the NIL warchest. That part of your post is very fair game, and we might have been better off in this era. I suspect it's just a thought experiment though, because we probably don't get boosters to contribute that big warchest without a brand name HC like Mario. But in a world where UM could still raise that money and slide it towards NIL instead of HC salary... yeah, I think you're better off paying for the players.