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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

scane said:
Amazing how every outcome proves him right, even when he was completely wrong.
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Calinative said:
Really comes down to how much this is going to increase our revenue, and if it adds an exit plan after 2030. Not as good as getting out asap or within 2-3 years and into the B1G or SEC, but certainly possible it's better result than any other alternative, especially idiots who thought we should go to B12, which never made a lick of sense.

2024 Distributions, I think were:
- B12 - $34M. But projected to be closer to $50M next year with new TV Deal I think.
- ACC - $45M. No idea what we're expected to get going forward.
- SEC - $51M. But supposed to be like $67M/yr on average until 2033 I think?
- B1G - $61M. But supposed to average $72M/yr on average until 2030. With it being closer to $100M by the time it's 2030 I believe

ACC made $706M in revenue. Stanford and Cal only get 30% payouts currently which is about $13M each. SMU receives 0% payouts. Notre Dame received about 37% payout which was about $17M this season. So taking those numbers out and continuing them as is, leaves like $663M to distribute between 14 programs. If the bottom 7 received like 70% payout, the middle 3 85%, and the top 4 100% payouts, it'd be something like $41M/$50M/$58M per year respectively. So bottom 7 would be taking a $4M/yr reduction vs current, middle 3 would get a $5M increase vs current, and top 4 (us, FSU, Clemson, UNC) would get a $13M/yr increase vs current. Then after that you'd do performance bonuses and CFP appearance distributions where only the teams participating keep the money.

The thing about doing it this way is it really depends on what the B12 payouts are. If they are significantly lower than ACC on average then it is entirely reasonably that the bottom half of the ACC should only receive distributions comparable to B12 schools average, and the top 4 programs should receive substantially more. Because ultimately what separates the ACC from the B12 IS that the ACC still has a handful of marquee brands + Notre Dame. If that were the same as 2024 it'd only be $34M/yr which is equivalent to 56% distribution. So in my scenario of giving 70%, this is actually still quite good for them...

Ultimately if the B10 is at $72M/yr, the SEC is at $67M/yr, we need to hopefully be around $62M/yr....
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B1G/SEC could apply your same rationale to their payout structure too...

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Empirical Cane said:
Big risk is CFPO formatting.

P2 clearly controls it and its changing near term to benefit their teams with auto bids.

ACC and Big 12 on outside looking in for anything other than a single team.

What might come into fashion for ACC/Big 12 is a big OOC tilt against B1G/SEC late in season vs beginning of season. That would give alot more weight to a dub dub. Only problem is ACC/B1G teams likely never agree to any OOC matchups late in season.
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Agree. We may even be able to close a big chunk of the regular season rev share differential if Miami gets its "fair share" of the ACC allocation (which I have a tough time believing it will). But if the BiG/SEC take 8 of the 12 playoff spots, they're going to have a structural advantage over us that will be nearly impossible to overcome.

The irony is they don't even really need to put it into a contract. They're de facto getting to 8 schools by putting every BiG/SEC team in the Top 25 in the preseason polling (Gators in Top 10 ... really?), so they can artificially prop up their strength of schedule and quality wins/losses arguments.
 
Even if the money ends up being closer with all of these new measures, the key will be maintaining perception among recruits and transfers that the ACC is a real conference, and they can come here and play in marquee matchups on a big stage
 
grover said:
"...They're de facto getting to 8 schools by putting every BiG/SEC team in the Top 25 in the preseason polling (Gators in Top 10 ... really?), so they can artificially prop up their strength of schedule and quality wins/losses arguments."
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IYKYK

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canes518 said:
I stopped following him a long time ago when he started becoming an FSU shill, but how does this guy continue take victory laps and claim to be the supreme source on realignment when none of his predictions have actually happened?

I also love the arrogance that he feels the need to say give me a chance to get through the work day like people are sitting there refreshing and waiting for the next genetics nugget to drop
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**** that guy 7 ways to Sunday
 
Rickd said:
He has changed his story so many times it's hard to keep up ... and now he is claiming "to have been right all along ... the only one"??? What happened to "FSU to the Big 10 ... a lock ... approved by FOX and by the presidents ... regardless of AAU".
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He's good. Keeps engagement high that way.
 
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Tony4Canes said:
SO

Do we keep this thread going or to time to lock until next round of realignment in '29 or '30??
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The reality is if you think you’re gonna leave in 2031 that conversation is gonna kick up again in 2028. Texas as an example was a 2021 thing that started in 2024 because they came in a year earlier by paying for it.
 
NorthernVirginiaCane said:
Yes
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Florida State and Clemson never had an offer.

GOR are enforceable.

There there was an argument that the GOR possibly was tied to the ESPN agreement, and would go away if it was not extended. That wasn't a bad argument, but it never seemed plausible in the current market and now it is dead.

Nothing will happen until the early 2030s

ACC isn't going anywhere and neither is FSU or Miami.

we will see the details of the new revenue sharing, and to save face, FSU will say that the lawsuit generated that additional money. But miami and north carolina will also benefit without the lawsuit, the national embarrassment, the bad will and the legal fees. That was going to happen anyways.

This was a lot of legal fees wasted.
 
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NorthernVirginiaCane said:
Florida State and Clemson never had an offer.

GOR are enforceable.

There there was an argument that the GOR possibly was tied to the ESPN agreement, and would go away if it was not extended. That wasn't a bad argument, but it never seemed plausible in the current market and now it is dead.

Nothing will happen until the early 2030s

ACC isn't going anywhere and neither is FSU or Miami.

we will see the details of the new revenue sharing, and to save face, FSU will say that the lawsuit generated that additional money. But miami and north carolina we'll also benefit without the lawsuit, the national embarrassment, the bad will and the legal fees. That was going to happen anyways.

This was a lot of legal fees wasted.
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It just is what it is at this point and before this point I guess. Unfortunately, the schools all signed a bad agreement, notwithstanding the points I’ve seen raised about whether people involved on the schools’ side had conflicts of interest. The schools are sophisticated enough as entities to know what they were signing.

I saw Josh Pate talk about 2031 when all the other tv deals are up - SEC, B1G… maybe the buyout at that point will be worth it???
 
RVACane said:
It just is what it is at this point and before this point I guess. Unfortunately, the schools all signed a bad agreement, notwithstanding the points I’ve seen raised about whether people involved on the schools’ side had conflicts of interest. The schools are sophisticated enough as entities to know what they were signing.

I saw Josh Pate talk about 2031 when all the other tv deals are up - SEC, B1G… maybe the buyout at that point will be worth it???
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Would be nice to see the details of the “agreement”. Also will be interesting to see how the FSU law suit proceeds or if they have some agreement with the ACC at this point. One thing appears clear - ESPN can do what they want with ACC members - when they want. 2030?
 
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Great. We have reached the raging at Genetics again part of the thread.

When all the CIS conference wisdom has been about the same level of accuracy.
 
n0rcalcane said:
I just want to ensure we get competitive media rights revenue with the P2 until the super league form
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It's more competitive, and as good as it gets for now.
Ispyin said:
**** that guy 7 ways to Sunday
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I think he did hear something early on about what was going on. Then, as he proved he couldn't stop trolling for likes on twitter/x his info dried up as those who blabbed knew they couldn't trust him. By then, he had a following and had to satisfy the masses to keep his profile so he began spinning bs, like the FSU to the B1G because Fox insisted on it, nonsense. He's been full of ****e for most of the past two years, so claiming victory again is consistent.
 
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