MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[one98d]

Hence is why I mention would likely have to counter with.

B1G could do nothing as well, or could even take another FL team.

All are possible COAs with long lasting consequences.

I happen to think their best COA under the FSU + Clemson to SEC scenario is taking the territory of Miami. It's just how my military brain approaches problems, for better or worse.

BOSS MOVE: Sankey takes FSU + Clemson + Miami into SEC just to show everybody "just cuz I can do it ******* out of spite". I wouldn't discount this either.

I could also see the SEC taking them and then also adding Georgia Tech to get a nice 20 teams and completely block out the Big Ten of the current SEC conference footprint. Completely remove the ability of the Big Ten to have neutral site games in Florida and Georgia to further encroach those recruiting grounds. There are a lot of Big Ten alumni in both states and the SEC and ESPN know that, and I just don't see how them both wouldn't want move to completely monopolize the current SEC conference footprint.

Plus, I just don't think either the SEC and Big Ten want to deal with the North Carolina and Virginia governments to try to wrangle VT, Virginia, UNC, and NC State into their conferences. This Reddit thread on r/ACC shows all those schools (except VT) in the bottom half of TV viewership, with all of the North Carolina schools making up 4 out of the 5 worst in the conference.

Like why go through all that hassle for programs whose viewership numbers are only as big as they are when they play Clemson, FSU, and Miami? I just feel that the move for the SEC is to grab Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech to fully monopolize the current SEC footprint, and the move for the Big Ten is to take Cal and Stanford, so that FOX between the Big Ten and Big 12 has all of the remaining relevant programs outside of the southeast.

 

[Rickd]

I see critical thinking is not one of your strong suits. I have no agenda. I interpret data. If it’s bad news , I explain why. I’m not a weak minded man-baby with a neckbeard who cries and calls people a troll when they says something I don’t like, especially when the person explains how they arrived at the conclusion. unfortunately halfwit man-baby neckbeards seems to make up a sizable portion of this site. Turns out I have interpreted the data correctly. Flo basically confirmed what I predicted, so I assume you think he has an agenda as well.

Whoa there squid. What exactly did Flo "confirm"??? He simply said that Miami is doing things behind the scenes ... THEN he posed the question ... what if you had these options .... 50% share from the B10 or full share from the Big 12 ... what would YOU do? He didn't say that is what Miami is considering. Nobody knows what is ACTUALLY being discussed behind closed doors. Everybody is discussing POTENTIAL SCENARIOS AND ALTERNATIVES because nobody at Miami is talking ... to anybody.

 

[Rickd]

Using stall ball at its finest, the ACC is in no hurry to reach a settlement with either school. It realizes if FSU and Clemson exit, they might start a conga line out the door.

ACC sources said the league will fight the Florida State and Clemson lawsuits to the “Nth degree.” Can you force a school to remain in a conference? No. But you can refuse to settle and make it as costly as possible.

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said he’s “optimistic” the FSU and Clemson relationships can be salvaged but added, “Am I going to fight and protect the ACC? Absolutely.”

FSU’s general counsel has estimated it would cost $572 million to exit the ACC and break free from the league’s grant of rights that runs through 2036.

However, FSU claimed in a lawsuit that the ACC’s deal with ESPN includes an option that the network must execute by February 2025 to extend the deal through 2036. If not executed, ESPN could walk away in 2027.

“We’re working with [ESPN] on a piece of the contract,” Phillips said. “The partnership is not going away or being affected in a negative way at all.”

As far as the ACC’s desire to settle with Florida State or Clemson, the percentage chance is between zero and a number less than zero. Multiple ACC sources said this week the league has “absolutely no incentive to settle” with the two schools.

The ACC "cost to exit" figure is as bogus as a $3 dollar bill. Both Clemson and FSU attorneys have SEEN the ESPN media agreement and at some point soon it will be entered into the court proceedings. The same document for Oklahoma, which was stated to be the ESPN boiler plate agreement, stated that "the GOR is in effect while the institution remains a member of the conference". Leave the conference ... and you leave with your future media rights. PLUS, as stated above, the current agreement runs through June 30, 2027, effective for the 24, 25 and 26 seasons.

It appears, unless a settlement is agreed to prior to August 15, FSU and Clemson are both announcing their withdrawal from the ACC, requesting a negotiated exit fee, and taking the position that their future media rights belong to them and if the ACC believes otherwise, then take them to court on that issue. No media buyback required. Sounds like UNC is getting ready to enter the fray as well.

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

Whoa there squid. What exactly did Flo "confirm"??? He simply said that Miami is doing things behind the scenes ... THEN he posed the question ... what if you had these options .... 50% share from the B10 or full share from the Big 12 ... what would YOU do? He didn't say that is what Miami is considering. Nobody knows what is ACTUALLY being discussed behind closed doors. Everybody is discussing POTENTIAL SCENARIOS AND ALTERNATIVES because nobody at Miami is talking ... to anybody.

He literally asked the exact same questions that I asked months ago and then gave my opinion on the pro/cons of each course of action. I am just wondering where all the assclowns are to claim he’s got an agenda. For some reason they only come out for me. I should change my name to Assclown Magnet

 

[Ispyin]

Somebody posted on the Warchant realignment thread that he has a friend who has reliable information from a contact who has a solid rep that Miami has an invite from both the SEC and B10 if the ACC implodes. That is a new one - stuff is all over the spectrum of possibilities.

We are not going to the big 12 no matter how many times people post about it cause they blah blah.

SEC has come up more often now across the spectrum but I would still say it’s more 95/5 percent if you were trying to put odds on it.

Acc commish today was a clown. There’s being political and not saying anything (hi Dan) and there is being an outfight clown acting like you don’t know what the board of trustees member from North Carolina said, as if you have to go back to Charlotte and verify it to be true when there’s literally video all over the Internet. Swafford might’ve been slimy, but this guy is just stupid.

 

[Ispyin]

Using stall ball at its finest, the ACC is in no hurry to reach a settlement with either school. It realizes if FSU and Clemson exit, they might start a conga line out the door.

ACC sources said the league will fight the Florida State and Clemson lawsuits to the “Nth degree.” Can you force a school to remain in a conference? No. But you can refuse to settle and make it as costly as possible.

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said he’s “optimistic” the FSU and Clemson relationships can be salvaged but added, “Am I going to fight and protect the ACC? Absolutely.”

FSU’s general counsel has estimated it would cost $572 million to exit the ACC and break free from the league’s grant of rights that runs through 2036.

However, FSU claimed in a lawsuit that the ACC’s deal with ESPN includes an option that the network must execute by February 2025 to extend the deal through 2036. If not executed, ESPN could walk away in 2027.

“We’re working with [ESPN] on a piece of the contract,” Phillips said. “The partnership is not going away or being affected in a negative way at all.”

As far as the ACC’s desire to settle with Florida State or Clemson, the percentage chance is between zero and a number less than zero. Multiple ACC sources said this week the league has “absolutely no incentive to settle” with the two schools.

k Jim

 

[Yoyo82]

Will the ACC hold together or fall apart? 'The SEC and Big Ten have cut us open and they’re just watching us bleed out'

While FSU and Clemson are openly and actively forming an escape plan, other schools may now join their cause as revenue dips in comparison to the SEC and Big Ten.

sports.yahoo.com

Maybe this is still the best move going forward.

Get the 8 highest media value teams and dissolve the ACC.

Zero exit or GOR fees.

Then the 8 remaining teams (FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC, UVA/VT, Louisville, GT) make their own media negotiations with the states of, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina/NCState, Kentucky, and Virginia. That's a pretty good portfolio of states and a pretty strong conference from top to bottom with major media markets. You dump all the teams that drag the value down like Syracuse, wake forest, Boston college, duke etc. Could probably increase the annual media payout by at least 50%.

"There is another landing spot for FSU and Clemson: a new, restructured ACC — a similar plan discussed among seven schools last spring.

The idea back then: 8-10 schools vote to break away from the league, end the grant of rights with a majority decision and reform with a TV deal that is just as valuable but with fewer mouths to feed, so to speak.

Administrators from seven schools — FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, NC State, Virginia and Virginia Tech — met multiple times last spring over the matter in what was described as a serious endeavor.

It fizzled over legal fears, mostly from university presidents and counsels.

“Now look,” said one administrator. “It would have been the smart thing to do. The SEC and Big Ten have cut us open and they’re just watching us bleed out."

 

[Empirical Cane]

I could also see the SEC taking them and then also adding Georgia Tech to get a nice 20 teams and completely block out the Big Ten of the current SEC conference footprint. Completely remove the ability of the Big Ten to have neutral site games in Florida and Georgia to further encroach those recruiting grounds. There are a lot of Big Ten alumni in both states and the SEC and ESPN know that, and I just don't see how them both wouldn't want move to completely monopolize the current SEC conference footprint.

Plus, I just don't think either the SEC and Big Ten want to deal with the North Carolina and Virginia governments to try to wrangle VT, Virginia, UNC, and NC State into their conferences. This Reddit thread on r/ACC shows all those schools (except VT) in the bottom half of TV viewership, with all of the North Carolina schools making up 4 out of the 5 worst in the conference.

Like why go through all that hassle for programs whose viewership numbers only as big as they are when they play Clemson, FSU, and Miami? I just feel that the move for the SEC is to grab Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech to fully monopolize the current SEC footprint, and the move for the Big Ten is to take Cal and Stanford, so that FOX between the Big Ten and Big 12 has all of the remaining relevant programs outside of the southeast.

You get it.

Although no guarantee, hubris (e.g. Sankey and SEC) can never be discounted when thinking through your adversary's moves, particularly when they feel they are in a hugely advantaged positioned (as Sankey and SEC do).

“It is the rule in Conferences, if our schools are ten to our rival's one, to surround him; if five to one, to force his ***** *** into a lesser share in TV deals; if twice as numerous, to divide our Conference into two divisions for more content and a championship game. If equally matched, we can offer a playoff; if slightly inferior in numbers, we can offer the BCS; if quite unequal in every way, we can just go back to AP/UPI pollsters.”
- The Empirical One On Conference Realignment

 

[Empirical Cane]

Meanwhile the other critical thinkers on here disagree with you. So much for your critical thinking.

All this thinking is hurting my head.

 

[CaneinBroward]

Will the ACC hold together or fall apart? 'The SEC and Big Ten have cut us open and they’re just watching us bleed out'

While FSU and Clemson are openly and actively forming an escape plan, other schools may now join their cause as revenue dips in comparison to the SEC and Big Ten.

sports.yahoo.com

Maybe this is still the best move going forward.

Get the 8 highest media value teams and dissolve the ACC.

Zero exit or GOR fees.

Then the 8 remaining teams (FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC, UVA/VT, Louisville, GT) make their own media negotiations with the states of, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina/NCState, Kentucky, and Virginia. That's a pretty good portfolio of states and a pretty strong conference from top to bottom with major media markets. You dump all the teams that drag the value down like Syracuse, wake forest, Boston college, duke etc. Could probably increase the annual media payout by at least 50%.

"There is another landing spot for FSU and Clemson: a new, restructured ACC — a similar plan discussed among seven schools last spring.

The idea back then: 8-10 schools vote to break away from the league, end the grant of rights with a majority decision and reform with a TV deal that is just as valuable but with fewer mouths to feed, so to speak.

Administrators from seven schools — FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, NC State, Virginia and Virginia Tech — met multiple times last spring over the matter in what was described as a serious endeavor.

It fizzled over legal fears, mostly from university presidents and counsels.

“Now look,” said one administrator. “It would have been the smart thing to do. The SEC and Big Ten have cut us open and they’re just watching us bleed out."

The ACC is done. It may take a few years, but its done. It's 2 biggest brands want out. The courts may rule the ACC's way, but those 2 will get out eventually, even if they are forced to stay through the GOR (highly unlikely).

Hard to see how this is an option. Locking in the Kentucky and South Carolina markets and tossing aside the New York, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania TV markets and still expect to receive a payout anywhere near the size of the P2? I just don't see it.

And even if the possible TV contract is as lucrative as they predict, do you think these 8-10 schools would trust each other enough to enter into a brand new conference with each other? I wouldn't. I'd be thinking they would all want to jump to the P2 as soon as they could.

 

[Yoyo82]

The ACC is done. It may take a few years, but its done. It's 2 biggest brands want out. The courts may rule the ACC's way, but those 2 will get out eventually, even if they are forced to stay through the GOR (highly unlikely).

Hard to see how this is an option. Locking in the Kentucky and South Carolina markets and tossing aside the New York, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania TV markets and still expect to receive a payout anywhere near the size of the P2? I just don't see it.

And even if the possible TV contract is as lucrative as you predict, do you think these 8-10 schools would trust each other enough to enter into a brand new conference with each other? I wouldn't. I'd be thinking they would all want to jump to the P2 as soon as they could.

I have no idea how the media companies value market vs having a competitive team.

But if Pitt is more valuable then drop NCSt and if Syracuse is more valuable then drop VT.

Either way, there's lots of valuable media markets left in the ACC right now.

 

[BS85]

He literally asked the exact same questions that I asked months ago and then gave my opinion on the pro/cons of each course of action. I am just wondering where all the assclowns are to claim he’s got an agenda. For some reason they only come out for me. I should change my name to Assclown Magnet

 

[CaneinBroward]

Hence is why I mention would likely have to counter with.

B1G could do nothing as well, or could even take another FL team.

All are possible COAs with long lasting consequences.

I happen to think their best COA under the FSU + Clemson to SEC scenario is taking the territory of Miami. It's just how my military brain approaches problems, for better or worse.

BOSS MOVE: Sankey takes FSU + Clemson + Miami into SEC just to show everybody "just cuz I can do it ******* out of spite". I wouldn't discount this either.

"or could even take another FL team."

Good point. If Fox is truly pulling the strings with Big 10 expansion, is it totally outside the realm of possibility that they would push for a state school in a large metropolitan area with the highest enrollment in the entire state of Florida?

 

[Empirical Cane]

"or could even take another FL team."

Good point. If Fox is truly pulling the strings with Big 10 expansion, is it totally outside the realm of possibility that they would push for a state school in a large metropolitan area with the highest enrollment in the entire state of Florida?

If not mistaken, the highest enrollment in the United States.

 

[lindend]

 

[hurricaneman]

We're the former "10" who's convinced she's still a solid "8" but realistically is more of a North Florida "6"

So, yeah, like you said, "just bangable enough" for the corn-fed decision-makers in the Big Ten

Miami is the crazy stripper that you can't get out of your head.

 

[Rickd]

He literally asked the exact same questions that I asked months ago and then gave my opinion on the pro/cons of each course of action. I am just wondering where all the assclowns are to claim he’s got an agenda. For some reason they only come out for me. I should change my name to Assclown Magnet

You stated that "Flo confirmed" ... as in confirmed that is what Miami is doing. He simply put forth a HYPOTHETICAL scenario ... and asked a question "would you prefer 50% share from the B10 for 3 years or full share from the B12 for 6". .... period ..... he didn't state that is what Miami is doing or state which he thought was likely. He confirmed NOTHING.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

You stated that "Flo confirmed" ... as in confirmed that is what Miami is doing. He simply put forth a HYPOTHETICAL scenario ... and asked a question "would you prefer 50% share from the B10 for 3 years or full share from the B12 for 6". .... period ..... he didn't state that is what Miami is doing or state which he thought was likely. He confirmed NOTHING.

In one of his posts he says "I interpret data", then follows it up with "Turns out I have interpreted the data correctly. Flo basically confirmed what I predicted".

@lindend has been on top of keeping his Flo's predictions thread updated WITH hit rate percentages. Flo's "non recruiting hit rate" is 66%. AND as you point out, Flo didn't even say he thinks its likely.

Its all about taking the contraraian pov, and dying on that hill. That's where the troll accusations come from.

I mean.. Washington and Oregon are proof that there's more value half shares with B1G than their is in full shares anywhere else.

Oregon and Washington turned down full shares with the Big 12 for half shares in B1G. In the short term, they're making the same amount in the B1G that the Pac 12 was offering them to stay, which is less than Utah, Arizona, Arizona St and Colorado are making with full shares in the Big 12.

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

You stated that "Flo confirmed" ... as in confirmed that is what Miami is doing. He simply put forth a HYPOTHETICAL scenario ... and asked a question "would you prefer 50% share from the B10 for 3 years or full share from the B12 for 6". .... period ..... he didn't state that is what Miami is doing or state which he thought was likely. He confirmed NOTHING.

“As in confirmed that is what Miami is doing." There you go again with your strawman arguments. This is the second time in the last two days you have done this. You go from having lucid well- reasoned posts to making stuff up and mischaracterizing what I say.

The quote from the original write up about Flo-

“He says he feels sure it will come down to the money - not what the perception will be or what the fan base likes - he also says he is comfortable with info he has from people who would know that Miami has a spot in a conference other than the Big 12. The decision will be about the money.
He doesn't know what the final decision will be but he is positive that the ACC is done.”

Just use a tiny bit of logic and deductive reasoning here. He says ACC is dead. 100% of the fan base, me included, wants UM to join the B1G. He says he has info from people who would know that UM has a spot in a conference other than the Big 12. Why would he then say that he is sure that UM doesn’t care about perception or what the fan base likes, it’s purely about money? And if UM has a spot in the B1G with full shares, why isn’t he able to predict UMs final decision? ACC is out, so there must be some mystery conference that is making the decision complicated for UM.

Well gee, I wonder what conference he is talking about that wouldn’t be perceived as being as good as the B1G, would be unpopular with the fan base, and who
would be offering money that would exceed partial shares from the B1G.

 

[5NC4]

Who says Miami isn't working on an exit plan?