MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[Squid Bumciorek]

It was a reasonable response to your "will still be available in 2033" comment, in my opinion. As far as age, whew, been a lot of places and done a lot of things. One of my most enjoyable summers was '67, OCS at NAS Penscola, before my senior year in college. Was supposed to be flying Phantoms, but a back injury resulted in a medical discharge and never made it into flight school. That's almost 57 years ago, and I remember it like it was yesterday.

I really do believe Miami has a legit shot at the B10 in this next go around. A lot depends on how aggressive the SEC becomes. If they take Clemson, UNC, UVA, NcSt, then good chance the B10 takes FSU + Miami.

From one veteran to another , thank you for your service, and knock it off with the insults.

 

[FL Cane]

Your math doesn’t quite add up. Whether they get us now or later isn’t going to make it substantially more expensive. Let’s say the media full shares are 100 million per team in the SEC and B1G. That’s the price. Add another team, the P2 teams aren’t going to dilute their shares. Network has to kick in 100 million more for each new team. The networks aren’t getting into a bidding war against each other for a particular team- espn isn’t going to offer 300 million per year to UM to steal us from Fox. So if we take partial shares (let’s say 50%) now for 5 years, then after 5 years it becomes the full 100 million.

If we go to the Big 12 and dominate for 5 years, the full offer shares to join the P2 is still 100 million. 5 years from now it costs the network the same as if we joined now. The only big difference is they would have had UM at a discount price for 5 years.

Thing is the networks could already get the milk for free without buying the proverbial cow. They both own part of the Big 12. Partial shares in the P2 are probably about the same as full shares in the Big 12. They could require the conferences to schedule UM and FSU every year ,or UM and OSU /PSU every 3 years. They would get the great ratings they want ,but without having to make a commitment to UM that over a 10 year span would cost them 1 billion dollars and risk UM doing what is has for the last 15 years. Even someone with orange and green glasses would admit that UM did not pull its weight in the ACC ,and ESPN frequently stuck us on the Ocho because no one was tuning in to watch a bad UM team play Boston College.

Again this is a question of "why would you trust that the UM administration will continue to invest in the program after it gets a P2 invite?" It wasn’t just UM being cheap for the last 15 years, we’ve been cheap since the beginning. We won despite that ,but the game changed. You have to spend to win. And as I said before- if Herbstreit doesn’t pull down UMs pants on national tv , there is a decent chance we’d still have Manny Diaz as HC. The university didn’t have sudden realization that we need to spend, it only made big changes after getting ridiculed on live tv. I dont trust the UM administration and I wouldn’t be surprised if network execs feel the same way.

First, when they add us absolutely has an effect on potential revenue that the Big 10 could make or miss out on, considering the share that we would have.

Second, if the "networks could already get the milk for free without buying the proverbial cow," why even add us to begin with? Why add any team? Why would Miami agree to that and forfeit any leverage it has or any chance it has to get into another conference? Because once Miami agrees to that type of arrangement, there's no incentive whatsoever for any network to change it. If they can get the ratings they want without addings us, they'll never add us to begin with.

Also, the past doesn't matter to the networks or the conferences. Why the school choose to make this investment doesn't matter, what actually matters is that the school has made the investment to begin with. We have the $$$, funding, NIL, and backing to compete with any school in the country. The final of the equation piece is those investments turning into positive on the field results. There's plenty of metrics to trust this version of UM's admin with its financial commitment to CFB, at the least.

You can certainly disagree with me and believe that the past does matter or that we won't get picked in this round of realignment. What I don't understand though is why you think Miami is the equivalent of a toxic asset with nothing to offer. Like anything, we have drawbacks, but you don't seem to believe we have anything whatsoever to offer the Big. That, or we have to do some penance in the Big 12 to meet a standard that no other team in realignment has ever been held to. Which also begs the question, why do you want us in the Big 12 so bad? This isn't meant as a negative comment or anything like that, just that in reading through some of your posts, all your roads lead to the Big 12, so I'm curious why you think that's the best landing spot for us.

 

[3FW]

We are never going to the Big 12.

 

[Antcane]

I just needed time to do what I had to do

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

What I don't understand though is why you think Miami is the equivalent of a toxic asset with nothing to offer.

The UM admin made it a toxic asset by 20 years of neglect. If I told you in 2004 that UM would have one 10 win season and one division title in the next 20 years, you would think that the only possible explanation is that UM got the death penalty. It would be somewhat comforting if that was the simple answer. But sadly it’s an even worse answer. Complete and total incompetence at the highest levels. The reality is that it was just bad hire after another, passing over far better coaches because they weren’t "UM guys".

I think UM has plenty to offer but the expansion is a game of musical chairs. Other teams offer a lot too. No one disputes that FSU and UNC are the two most coveted ACC programs for the P2. No knows how many teams the B1G or SEC want to add right now. We are in ok shape if the B1G takes 4 teams, but If the B1G only takes two teams, I personally don’t think we control our fate- it’s all depends on what happens with other teams. If the B1G is taking two teams and gets FSU and UNC, I think we’re screwed until the next expansion, whenever that is. If the B1G takes 4 teams and it includes FSU and UNC, we still have a fair shot at being one of the last two selections. If the SEC takes FSU and UNC, that is the best scenario possible for UM because I think it all but guarantees a B1G invitation. It’s just probabilities.

So I’m not saying UM is a totally unattractive program, Im saying that once upon a time we had the juice to reject the SEC and tell them we were going to play in the smart conference instead. We don’t have that kind of juice right now and unfortunately we have to sit quietly and hope we get thrown a bone. I don’t like it .

 

[Rickd]

The UM admin made it a toxic asset by 20 years of neglect. If I told you in 2004 that UM would have one 10 win season and one division title in the next 20 years, you would think that the only possible explanation is that UM got the death penalty. It would be somewhat comforting if that was the simple answer. But sadly it’s an even worse answer. Complete and total incompetence at the highest levels. The reality is that it was just bad hire after another, passing over far better coaches because they weren’t "UM guys".

I think UM has plenty to offer but the expansion is a game of musical chairs. Other teams offer a lot too. No one disputes that FSU and UNC are the two most coveted ACC programs for the P2. No knows how many teams the B1G or SEC want to add right now. We are in ok shape if the B1G takes 4 teams, but If the B1G only takes two teams, I personally don’t think we control our fate- it’s all depends on what happens with other teams. If the B1G is taking two teams and gets FSU and UNC, I think we’re screwed until the next expansion, whenever that is. If the B1G takes 4 teams and it includes FSU and UNC, we still have a fair shot at being one of the last two selections. If the SEC takes FSU and UNC, that is the best scenario possible for UM because I think it all but guarantees a B1G invitation. It’s just probabilities.

So I’m not saying UM is a totally unattractive program, Im saying that once upon a time we had the juice to reject the SEC and tell them we were going to play in the smart conference instead. We don’t have that kind of juice right now and unfortunately we have to sit quietly and hope we get thrown a bone. I don’t like it .

Everything hinges on what the SEC does in this next round. If the B10 succeeds in grabbing FSU & Clemson and the SEC takes UNC / UVA and stops ... then we are stuck in a weak ACC most likely for some time, unless the math works on leaving a very weak ACC (new media deal without FSU / Clemson / UNC / UVA might be ?? $25M per year?), and it made $$ sense to join the B12. Really hoping that the SEC takes 4 to get to 20, and those 4 are Clemson, UNC, UVA, NC State. That would give us a decent shot at moving to the B10 with FSU. Heck, right now Stanford is calling the B10 and probably Cal as well, trying to get in for minimal share due to the perception that the ACC is going to implode. IF the ACC does implode ... how many programs can the B10 and SEC absorb by 2026 given current media deals? The SEC has been dragging their feet on going to 9 conference games.

 

[coffeecane]

Just got some news on that first item.

Stop worrying.

As in Rad gave JD one year or else? Hope you're right.

 

[Empirical Cane]

4 games a year, which may not be scheduled every season (other than FSU) justifies paying for 100 million per year for a team that, if the trend of the last 15 years continues, could hover around .500 in perpetuity? Look I am a UM fan so I’ll put the most positive spin on it to any outsiders. But here in the family, truth is I can see a network saying , "UM will still be available in 2033. We will have a much better idea by then of whether this sudden surge in investment was window dressing or is permanent.”

Let me ask you- let’s say you were best friends with a girl who was a knockout for a few years. She put on a little weight for a while, but lost it and was looking great again for around 5 years. Then she got enormously fat for 15 years and had to use one of those motorized carts to shop at Walmart. Now she discovered Ozempic and has slimmed back down and is a super MILF. You are a single guy , and she says she wants to get married and settle down with you. Do you jump at the chance and put a ring on her finger, or do you flirt for a few years to find out whether she only lost weight to catch your eye and trick you into getting married,or if she made a real permanent lifestyle change?

He gained, and then lost, @Paranos attention all in a single porst.

Well done.

 

[Ispyin]

4 games a year, which may not be scheduled every season (other than FSU) justifies paying for 100 million per year for a team that, if the trend of the last 15 years continues, could hover around .500 in perpetuity? Look I am a UM fan so I’ll put the most positive spin on it to any outsiders. But here in the family, truth is I can see a network saying , "UM will still be available in 2033. We will have a much better idea by then of whether this sudden surge in investment was window dressing or is permanent.”

Let me ask you- let’s say you were best friends with a girl who was a knockout for a few years. She put on a little weight for a while, but lost it and was looking great again for around 5 years. Then she got enormously fat for 15 years and had to use one of those motorized carts to shop at Walmart. Now she discovered Ozempic and has slimmed back down and is a super MILF. You are a single guy , and she says she wants to get married and settle down with you. Do you jump at the chance and put a ring on her finger, or do you flirt for a few years to find out whether she only lost weight to catch your eye and trick you into getting married,or if she made a real permanent lifestyle change?

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

Everything hinges on what the SEC does in this next round. If the B10 succeeds in grabbing FSU & Clemson and the SEC takes UNC / UVA and stops ... then we are stuck in a weak ACC most likely for some time, unless the math works on leaving a very weak ACC (new media deal without FSU / Clemson / UNC / UVA might be ?? $25M per year?), and it made $$ sense to join the B12. Really hoping that the SEC takes 4 to get to 20, and those 4 are Clemson, UNC, UVA, NC State. That would give us a decent shot at moving to the B10 with FSU. Heck, right now Stanford is calling the B10 and probably Cal as well, trying to get in for minimal share due to the perception that the ACC is going to implode. IF the ACC does implode ... how many programs can the B10 and SEC absorb by 2026 given current media deals? The SEC has been dragging their feet on going to 9 conference games.

Good post. The thing that worries me greatly , maybe more so than it does others, is that as you say , a lot of this is out of our hands. You seem to agree that UMs fate depends on the conferences getting (or not getting) certain teams. It doesn’t look like we are in the B1Gs top 2 and probably not on the SECs list at all (though I hope I am wrong).

Again I’m not saying UM is an unattractive program, just that we have to wait and hope that the SEC takes certain teams off the table for the B1G. There is a real possibility that we’re going to be stuck in the ACC or the slightly better option of the Big 12 if we don’t catch some breaks.

 

[Caneoverhere]

Good post. The thing that worries me greatly , maybe more so than it does others, is that as you say , a lot of this is out of our hands. You seem to agree that UMs fate depends on the conferences getting (or not getting) certain teams. It doesn’t look like we are in the B1Gs top 2 and probably not on the SECs list at all (though I hope I am wrong).

Again I’m not saying UM is an unattractive program, just that we have to wait and hope that the SEC takes certain teams off the table for the B1G. There is a real possibility that we’re going to be stuck in the ACC or the slightly better option of the Big 12 if we don’t catch some breaks.

Wow. Far cry from from what everyone thought at the beginning. We're making noise this year on the field, minds will change.

 

[USNAVYCANE]

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

 

[IndayArtHauz]

If an intern did this level of PowerPoint as a gag for their friends I would still fire them.

 

[CaneinBroward]

They BETTER have a deal in hand from one of the P2 - and for a full share. If not, things could get really ugly in Trailerhassee.

Coach Norvell will be running like Forrest Gump to the bank on payday to make sure the check doesn't bounce.

 

[5NC4]

Genetics will **** a brick when/if the SEC takes FSU. Then all of his asskissing and ****sucking of their program will all be for nothing.

 

[Rickd]

Good post. The thing that worries me greatly , maybe more so than it does others, is that as you say , a lot of this is out of our hands. You seem to agree that UMs fate depends on the conferences getting (or not getting) certain teams. It doesn’t look like we are in the B1Gs top 2 and probably not on the SECs list at all (though I hope I am wrong).

Again I’m not saying UM is an unattractive program, just that we have to wait and hope that the SEC takes certain teams off the table for the B1G. There is a real possibility that we’re going to be stuck in the ACC or the slightly better option of the Big 12 if we don’t catch some breaks.

If the SEC stays at 16 ... we're screwed. LONG TERM ... I believe that both B10 and SEC end up at 24 and they add the cream of the ACC and a couple from the B12 (Utah?). UM screwed the pooch by being irrelevant ... in the ACC for so long ... let alone the national picture. Winning the ACC this year would be beneficial in confirming that Miami is investing and the investment is bearing fruit. Might help get us into the P2 a year after FSU. Hope that Donna's B10 relationship carries some weight.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

They BETTER have a deal in hand from one of the P2 - and for a full share. If not, things could get really ugly in Trailerhassee.

Coach Norvell will be running like Forrest Gump to the bank on payday to make sure the check doesn't bounce.

Yeah there is a 0.00% chance they’re doing what they’re doing without a definitive landing spot.

 

[Rickd]

Yeah there is a 0.00% chance they’re doing what they’re doing without a definitive landing spot.

They have a spot in the Big 10 for sure ... if they want it or can get there easier than the SEC. From all that I have read on multiple sites it "seems" that this horse trading has already been completed by ESPN / FOX as part of the CFP negotiating process. Going to be interesting to see what, if anything, unfolds prior to the July 1 date that Cal / Stan / SMU join the ACC. Apparently Stanford is begging the B10 to let them in at a very minuscule % share due to the rumors that the ACC is being weakened or might even implode.

 

[3FW]

They want the Big 10 and likely have the ability to dictate some terms. I hope our braintrust is playing their hand correctly. Clemson gives the Big 10 very little. Florida State and Miami together give the Big 10 much more, less individually. I hope we are willing to make the commitment to athletics that will be required to join the Big 10 or SEC. I assume they would need to add around 3 more sports and I don’t know how they would do that with existing constraints. The low hanging fruit would likely be mens swimming and golf, and maybe fencing on the ladies side.