MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[TheOriginalCane]

With Stanford and Cal making a combined $17M/yr and SMU making $0M/yr, but it raising ESPNs payout to ACC by $72M/yr, it's a NET +$55M/yr to current conference members. Assuming they strategically distribute that, I can't imagine NCSt would vote against any longer. Same with UVA/VTech/etc. And it's not like this money would be going to ND. The only 4 schools that really still wouldn't likely want this is FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Miami because those are the 4 that can actually make more money elsewhere. The rest will make as much or more by remaining in the ACC, especially with an additional $55M to distribute.

If we are being 100% honest, IF Stanford, Cal, and SMU join the ACC, the only thing it actually really changes is that Conference dissolution is likely off the table as an option. So it means paying min $120M in Exit fee, and then getting out of GOR through court or settlement.

I would simply point out one additional thing.

All the conference members who might vote YES because "more money" are unlikely to see the money. It is far more likely that Clemson or F$U or Miami or North Carolina will get the extra "success bounty" payout.

I certainly hope Beta Blake isn't voting YES because he thinks Boston College will ever get one penny more.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Only way acc schools could allow them to join is if they don’t have a vote to dissolve the conference

Would be hilarious if...

---September 1, 2023 - Stanford, Cal, SMU invited to join, and will receive full voting rights on September 1, 2024

---September 2, 2023 - Stanford, Cal, SMU sign the worst GOR in history, and the ACC flips their rights to ESPN until 2036

---September 3, 2023 - Eight ACC teams vote to dissolve the ACC...OR....Miami, Clemson, F$U, and Team 4 give notice to exit the ACC

 

[TooColdToHold]

I would simply point out one additional thing.

All the conference members who might vote YES because "more money" are unlikely to see the money. It is far more likely that Clemson or F$U or Miami or North Carolina will get the extra "success bounty" payout.

I certainly hope Beta Blake isn't voting YES because he thinks Boston College will ever get one penny more.

The other schools would vote yes because they want to do whatever they can to keep the conference together.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

The other schools would vote yes because they want to do whatever they can to keep the conference together.

I'm aware of that. I'm pointing out the falseness of the "mo money" argument, and saying that EVERY **** thing that the ACC has done the last few years has had a secret unspoken subtext of "keeping the marriage together for the kids".

The ACC is miserable. The ACC has never figured out how to make ITSELF a strong conference. So the ACC has spent years and millions building all kinds of poison pills.

We just have to be honest at this point. Annul this marriage.

 

[Empirical Cane]

With Stanford and Cal making a combined $17M/yr and SMU making $0M/yr, but it raising ESPNs payout to ACC by $72M/yr, it's a NET +$55M/yr to current conference members. Assuming they strategically distribute that, I can't imagine NCSt would vote against any longer. Same with UVA/VTech/etc. And it's not like this money would be going to ND. The only 4 schools that really still wouldn't likely want this is FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Miami because those are the 4 that can actually make more money elsewhere. The rest will make as much or more by remaining in the ACC, especially with an additional $55M to distribute.

If we are being 100% honest, IF Stanford, Cal, and SMU join the ACC, the only thing it actually really changes is that Conference dissolution is likely off the table as an option. So it means paying min $120M in Exit fee, and then getting out of GOR through court or settlement.

How again do these 3 schools joining ACC raise payout to $72MM/yr?

 

[TheOriginalCane]

How again do these 3 schools joining ACC raise payout to $72MM/yr?

I believe that was the "quoted number" that ESPN would be willing to pay for the addition of those 3 teams.

Not sure if that would also involve 9 or 10 ACC games (thus, more inventory).

But it was the number that got reported in the press (and I'm suuuuure there was no hidden agenda in leaking that information)...

 

[Empirical Cane]

"...So the ACC has spent years and millions building all kinds of poison pills..."

Maudes, pin this.

 

[Alex Del Piero]

 

[Hoyacane1620]

 

[Hold My Beer]

B1G FOXy has seen the pricetag for Cal/Stanford to the ACC: About $8.5M each, including a travel stipend.

That's not equal to the "discount for the desperate" half-share that landed Oregon/U-Dub

That's not half of the half-share that landed the Ducks and Huskies.

It's like a little over a quarter of what those two Pacific Northwest schools will be paid in the B1G

B1g FOXy is not going to pass on two elite academic schools the university presidents want, two schools that help fill out an ideal West Coast scheduling pod for non-revenue sports and, most importantly, whose alignment with the Big Ten helps further destabilize the ACC and moves one step closer to shaking loose Notre Dame and a few other expansion targets.

Not for the price of what schools like USF are making in the American

And not when there's a fourth TV window (Saturday night 10:30 ET/7:30 PT) still to be sold as well as a potential Friday night package

Bay Area schools to the ACC is not happening

 

[Rickd]

IF the ACC adds Cal/Stan/SMU and takes the conference to 18 ... the nuclear reboot is pretty much off the table and the list realistic programs that might have the option to leave is chopped down to those that FOX / EXPN might actually negotiate a GOR buyout / transfer / trade for. That apparently is a small group that would consist of FSU / Clemson / Miami / UNC as the most valued brands. So nobody is "leaving on their own" but will be 'taken' based on network desires and ability to negotiate a deal. UM needs at least a 9 win season ... got to start getting "eyeballs" back on UM games regardless of opponent. There is already discussion in various forums regarding changing the media distribution in conferences from "everybody gets the same" to an "earned distribution". The B10 example of OSU / Md / Rutgers is used as a prime example of the inequity of the current model.

Rutgers barely averages 800,000 viewers per game and OSU will grab as many as 6 million. Should be an interesting next few years.

 

[Hold My Beer]

How again do these 3 schools joining ACC raise payout to $72MM/yr?

Here you go EC

The ACC (like the SEC and Big 12) has a pro rata agreement with ESPN (Per Burke Magnus of ESPN, there may be slight differences in those agreements).

The pro rata designates all new members get a full Tier 1 media rights share from Day One.

In the ACC's case, one pro rata share is $24M annually ($24M x 3 new members = $72M).

Of that $72M, about $17M would go to Cal and Stanford (roughly a 30% share and a travel stipend of about $1.5M). SMU wouldn't get ****.

So the total amount for the existing 14.5 schools to divvy up would be around $55M (plus whatever increases come from additional distribution of the ACCN).

Bottom line: It's a small turkey and however Jim Phillips carves it up, there's gonna be a problem

 

[SFbayCane]

Im starting to lean into the theory that UM ends up in an academically-based athletic conference.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Im starting to lean into the theory that UM ends up in an academically-based athletic conference.

They call it the Big 10.

 

[Hold My Beer]

The B10 example of OSU / Md / Rutgers is used as a prime example of the inequity of the current model.

Rutgers barely averages 800,000 viewers per game and OSU will grab as many as 6 million. Should be an interesting next few years.

Everybody gets the same media rights share works when the pie is big enough: See SEC, where Sankey sends the same check to UF and Vandy every year.

Everybody gets the same media rights share doesn't work when the pie isn't big enough: See ACC, where FSU's complaint is that it doesn't make as much as UF. If the Noles were making as much as the Gators, they wouldn't give a **** what BC and Wake were getting.

The problem is the ACC pie is too small for schools that want to compete on the highest level

 

[Rickd]

Everybody gets the same media rights share works when the pie is big enough: See SEC, where Sankey sends the same check to UF and Vandy every year.

Everybody gets the same media rights share doesn't work when the pie isn't big enough: See ACC, where FSU's complaint is that it doesn't make as much as UF. If the Noles were making as much as the Gators, they wouldn't give a **** what BC and Wake were getting.

The problem is the ACC pie is too small for schools that want to compete on the highest level

I know what the current media distribution practice is .... BUT there are already discussions amongst B10 AD's regarding the "inequity" of the current model ... and the example THEY POINTED TO is OSU / Michigan and Md / Rutgers. Makes no sense for Rutgers with barely 800,000 viewers per game to get the same MEDIA PAYOUT as schools that average 6 million per game.

 

[TpaBayFlyFisher]

Im starting to lean into the theory that UM ends up in an academically-based athletic conference.

"The Harvard of the South" is a reality. I love the Ivy League!!

 

[Hold My Beer]

I know what the current media distribution practice is .... BUT there are already discussions amongst B10 AD's regarding the "inequity" of the current model ... and the example THEY POINTED TO is OSU / Michigan and Md / Rutgers. Makes no sense for Rutgers with barely 800,000 viewers per game to get the same MEDIA PAYOUT as schools that average 6 million per game.

Why do the Jags get the same media rights share as the Cowboys — and have been since they came in the league? Ain't that inequity?

I do think what may happen is schools who make the CFP will get an additional slice of the revenue that goes back to the conference pot, i.e "rewards for on-field success"

One other thing: There always will be fewer haves than have-nots. Where are Ohio State and Michigan and USC and Penn State gonna get the votes to redistribute the media rights money?

(Not trying to change your mind or go against your sources. Just having a discussion here )

 

[Hold My Beer]

"The Harvard of the South" is a reality. I love the Ivy League!!

Dook
Wake
Vandy
Rice
Tulane
Emory

Home-and-home every year.

Instead of JRS, we'll play wherever it is Coral Gables HS plays. Maybe even some doubleheaders just for fun.

Blake James will come back as AD

 

[AuoraCane]

B1G FOXy has seen the pricetag for Cal/Stanford to the ACC: About $8.5M each, including a travel stipend.

That's not equal to the "discount for the desperate" half-share that landed Oregon/U-Dub

That's not half of the half-share that landed the Ducks and Huskies.

It's like a little over a quarter of what those two Pacific Northwest schools will be paid in the B1G

B1g FOXy is not going to pass on two elite academic schools the university presidents want, two schools that help fill out an ideal West Coast scheduling pod for non-revenue sports and, most importantly, whose alignment with the Big Ten helps further destabilize the ACC and moves one step closer to shaking loose Notre Dame and a few other expansion targets.

Not for the price of what schools like USF are making in the American

And not when there's a fourth TV window (Saturday night 10:30 ET/7:30 PT) still to be sold as well as a potential Friday night package

Bay Area schools to the ACC is not happening

That's not the price to ESPN. That's what those three schools will be paid. The reported price tag is $72+/- million. ($24 +/- million each). But yea still less than what FOXy had to pay Oregon/WA.