MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[Fluffhead]

Exactly the only options are getting enough members to find new homes so the whole league disbands, or somehow get a court to nullify the GOR. Nether are likely so just have to watch every other school make a **** ton more money than us for over a decade

Absolutely disagree. At some point there will be critical mass to leave and disband. Divorce is never easy but it will happen at some point. No one wants to be in a partnership where no one wants to be there. The schools being left out will have a price, and candidly, for a Duke, it will free them of having to sink resources into football instead of basketball. But this notion that the league has to disband or have a court nullify it is just not business reality.

 

[AuoraCane]

Absolutely disagree. At some point there will be critical mass to leave and disband. Divorce is never easy but it will happen at some point. No one wants to be in a partnership where no one wants to be there. The schools being left out will have a price, and candidly, for a Duke, it will free them of having to sink resources into football instead of basketball. But this notion that the league has to disband or have a court nullify it is just not business reality.

Duke has and will have plenty of money to invest in football. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the BIG down the road.

 

[Rickd]

Absolutely disagree. At some point there will be critical mass to leave and disband. Divorce is never easy but it will happen at some point. No one wants to be in a partnership where no one wants to be there. The schools being left out will have a price, and candidly, for a Duke, it will free them of having to sink resources into football instead of basketball. But this notion that the league has to disband or have a court nullify it is just not business reality.

It certainly appears as though the concept of blowing up the ACC is the only one that eliminates the GOR in the short term. Can’t just walk out of the ACC. No conference will take you without having media rights.

 

[Shogungts]

It certainly appears as though the concept of blowing up the ACC is the only one that eliminates the GOR in the short term. Can’t just walk out of the ACC. No conference will take you without having media rights.

I think the other possibility, that I haven't seen discussed in relation to the ACC GOR, is if football breaks away from the NCAA which is something that has been discussed. If that happens, I assume that would probably lead to the elimination of conferences for football and then I would think that could impact the agreement with ESPN as well. Nothing remotely concrete on that, just throwing out another possibility

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Duke has and will have plenty of money to invest in football. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the BIG down the road.

We need to get a CanesInsight drug-test service up and running.

 

[Fluffhead]

Duke has and will have plenty of money to invest in football. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the BIG down the road.

They may have the money but whether they want to invest it in football is a different story. Miami had plenty of money for a long time and didn’t, and that was without us being a basketball school. It costs a LOT to win big in football and their alums would be perfectly content to continue winning big in basketball.

 

[Dream School]

Absolutely disagree. At some point there will be critical mass to leave and disband. Divorce is never easy but it will happen at some point. No one wants to be in a partnership where no one wants to be there. The schools being left out will have a price, and candidly, for a Duke, it will free them of having to sink resources into football instead of basketball. But this notion that the league has to disband or have a court nullify it is just not business reality.

Why would ESPN ever redo the best deal in sports media rights? Especially in a time when they're cutting back on paying for sports media rights.

 

[Fluffhead]

Why would ESPN ever redo the best deal in sports media rights? Especially in a time when they're cutting back on paying for sports media rights.

For starters, if you’re talking about the Big 10, that’s largely independent of ESPN. Second, if it is the SEC, they would rather add Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC or a couple or others to add to the SEC matchup pool than pay the ACC for Duke/Wake or GT/Syracuse. Third, while ESPN obviously plays a role in this, if the schools want to leave, they will, and I’m fairly certain the ESPN/SEC deal has prenegotiated escalators for if and when teams get added. It’s really not that complicated.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Nah, 35,000 people showed up to see the 2001 team beat Temple in the Orange Bowl. Even when the team is good, dud conference opponents don't really draw.

Agree. A good schedule and a good team would absolutely vault UM into the attendance stratosphere. The 2001 attendance data is always used as an example of how Miami doesn't draw even when we are good but its bull****, IMO. Our average attendance that year was 47,161 fans per game. I don't have the attendance for all of CFB for that year, but if you compared it to the average attendance in CFB over the last 5 years, that would land us 25th in attendance per game ahead of SEC schools like Ole Miss and Kentucky, as well as USC. Not blowing the doors off, but 25th is not terrible for a school that had 8,500 undergrads back then. Find me another school that averaged 5x their undergraduate enrollment.

Winning matters. But schedule matters a whole lot too, maybe more.

That 25th best attendance or so was with an abysmal 2001 home schedule:

Rutgers 2–9 (0–7 Big East)
Troy (whatever)
WVU 3–8 (1–6 Big East)
Temple 4–7 (2–5 Big East)
Syracuse
Washington

The way it played out, it wasn't until the Syracuse game on November 17th (53,662) that there was even a decent game to attend. We really only had one marquee game, Washington (78,114). Those first four horrific matchups, some of which were at noon, killed us.

FYI we went on the road for:

PSU, PITT, FSU, BC, VT, which were ALL winning teams.

In 2002, with a much better home schedule, we averaged a robust 69,538 per game which is over 22,000 more per game than in 2021 (that's more than we would average in 2023 if we sold out every seat and then some- current HRS seating capacity is 64,767). When compared to the average attendance by school over the last five years that would be the 14th best attendance in CFB. Better than 2018-2022 Clemson, Notre Dame, FSU, Arkansas, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, USC, Oregon, and so many more giant state schools in mega conferences.

With the resources we are putting into football, and a B1G/SEC schedule, UM games would be a big time draw again. Add in a new cozy UM-focused CFB-vibed stadium for fun?

 

[AuoraCane]

They may have the money but whether they want to invest it in football is a different story. Miami had plenty of money for a long time and didn’t, and that was without us being a basketball school. It costs a LOT to win big in football and their alums would be perfectly content to continue winning big in basketball.

If they are profitable in football why not invest in it? Are they going to win championships, conferences? no. Football was their most profitable sport in 2021 and they would want to keep it to fund women's sports in the very least. Their overall brand value is enough to get them into BIG. Think Northwestern and Vanderbilt in SEC. Just my opinion of course.

 

[Ispyin]

We need to get a CanesInsight drug-test service up and running.

At a minimum we need an AI tool to identify the tools

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

At a minimum we need an AI tool to identify the tools

We have plenty of tools here and they are easy to identify.

 

[scrantoncane]

For starters, if you’re talking about the Big 10, that’s largely independent of ESPN. Second, if it is the SEC, they would rather add Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC or a couple or others to add to the SEC matchup pool than pay the ACC for Duke/Wake or GT/Syracuse. Third, while ESPN obviously plays a role in this, if the schools want to leave, they will, and I’m fairly certain the ESPN/SEC deal has prenegotiated escalators for if and when teams get added. It’s really not that complicated.

Are you just making this up as you go?

It actually IS that complicated, or else Miami, Clemson & FSU would already be gone.

Either the conference disbands, or a court nullifies the GOR. I’ve seen no other viable alternative.

If you have one that I’m unaware of, please send a link. I listen to wetzel and Forde every week, and they cover this better than anyone. Consider myself fairly informed on the topic. But maybe I’m wrong. Show me another way out.

 

[Angry Ibis]

Are you just making this up as you go?

It actually IS that complicated, or else Miami, Clemson & FSU would already be gone.

Either the conference disbands, or a court nullifies the GOR. I’ve seen no other viable alternative.

If you have one that I’m unaware of, please send a link. I listen to wetzel and Forde every week, and they cover this better than anyone. Consider myself fairly informed on the topic. But maybe I’m wrong. Show me another way out.

heyna or no?

 

[Rickd]

Are you just making this up as you go?

It actually IS that complicated, or else Miami, Clemson & FSU would already be gone.

Either the conference disbands, or a court nullifies the GOR. I’ve seen no other viable alternative.

If you have one that I’m unaware of, please send a link. I listen to wetzel and Forde every week, and they cover this better than anyone. Consider myself fairly informed on the topic. But maybe I’m wrong. Show me another way out.

You're right ... that guy is just spouting nonsense. "Not really that complicated". BS. There is a reason that the AD's want to blow the conference up ... and even with that happening ESPN has indicated that they are still expecting the GOR on home games to be theirs until the GOR expires. That is the "litigation point" that has things at somewhat of a standstill in my opinion. Would like to see that new 30 page GOR.

 

[Fluffhead]

Are you just making this up as you go?

It actually IS that complicated, or else Miami, Clemson & FSU would already be gone.

Either the conference disbands, or a court nullifies the GOR. I’ve seen no other viable alternative.

If you have one that I’m unaware of, please send a link. I listen to wetzel and Forde every week, and they cover this better than anyone. Consider myself fairly informed on the topic. But maybe I’m wrong. Show me another way out.

You're right ... that guy is just spouting nonsense. "Not really that complicated". BS. There is a reason that the AD's want to blow the conference up ... and even with that happening ESPN has indicated that they are still expecting the GOR on home games to be theirs until the GOR expires. That is the "litigation point" that has things at somewhat of a standstill in my opinion. Would like to see that new 30 page GOR.

Let me be clear. The negotiation and posturing is complicated. The concept is not. Partnerships and contracts end and get broken all the time. No one right now is going to say sure go ahead and weaken their hand. On the other side, there’s no indication anyone has gotten a formal offer. So yea, right now it’s a lot of keeping your cards until it’s time to negotiate and find a resolution, whether that’s a payout, conference disbanding, or some combination thereof. You’re out of your mind if you think anyone wants a protracted lawsuit over this.

 

[RVACane]

Having seen none of the contract language, I’d think the ACC needs to be dissolved. I’d think that’s easier than challenging the validity of a contract that sophisticated parties agreed to. Sure there are legal arguments theoretically but I wouldn’t feel comfortable banking on that.

If this GOR really is what ESPN claims - not saying it is - but if they own the tv rights to home games regardless… then wow. What a disaster for the schools who agreed to the deal.

 

[Alex Del Piero]

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Keep in mind that OSU and Michigan's viewership is skewed because of B1G CCG and CFP appearances. I am not discrediting those achievements, but when Miami starts winning, and say coupled with a B1G or SEC schedule, our viewership will skyrocket. So much potential with our program, that 117M is an achievement, especially with ACCN/Bally.

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

If this GOR really is what ESPN claims - not saying it is - but if they own the tv rights to home games regardless… then wow. What a disaster for the schools who agreed to the deal.

Hard Rock usually has more fans from the other school playing UM that we could claim that nearly all our games at Hard Rock are technically away games. Espn can keep 100% of zero dollars.