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- Apr 26, 2016
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Good points, but I think the landscape is changing rapidly into a professional sports model and then yes, culling the herd does become a possibility.Always enjoy your posts EC ... even the ones I disagree with
I don't think there'll be trimming of any power conference fat by the networks for a variety of reasons:
1) Wins and losses are a zero-sum game. Administrators, boosters and fans of traditional heavyweights (the latter two groups whether they know it or not) don't want to hover around .500 on a regular basis because their teams are no longer padding win totals against middleweights and lightweights
2) Culling programs is a political hornets' nest neither Sankey and Petitti will dare touch, particularly as they need favors in Congress both now and in the future
3) College presidents and administrators are also sensitive to blowback from abandoning peers, e.g. Pac-12 sheepishness about ditching Oregon State and Wazzu. Not to mention, leaving a school behind is one thing. Kicking them out is a whole 'nother matter with legal ramifications that would make the ACC-FSU-Clemson mess look like traffic court in comparison
4) Perhaps most importanty, media entities — whether it's ESPN, FOX and friends or Apple, Amazon or Netflix or some other deep pocketed platform — somebody is gonna pay WHATEVER its costs for the second-best broadcast property in the country: College Sports. How much will an expanded CFP and an NCAA Tournament also controlled by the SEC/B1G be worth on an open market?
You brought up the small market teams in the NFL and how they are not kicked out of the league. This is mainly due to revenue sharing and also the league has minimum criteria for teams to meet to maintain a spot at the table - in particular a salary base, not just a salary cap on the high end. Along with personnel requirements to support the team. This at least enables all teams to maintain a minimal level of competitiveness which, in turn, leads to more competitive games and more interest in watching those games. The college game has revenue sharing, but not too many minimal requirements on how to use it. Not too many NFL teams playing a team every year who go DECADES without winning a single game against that opponent (relatively common in many conferences). Nor many point spreads of +20 or more in the NFL either (again relatively common in college).
Forget about the college presidents and administrators having the will to kick out members (although it is not without precedent - Temple kicked out of the Big East), but what about the TV Networks that are funding this whole party? Fox is spending $100M per B1G school each year to get the opportunity to broadcast some fine games, but they've got plenty of stinkers to show as well. We'll see if this contract is profitable for them or not by what is offered next time. But yes, I think you'll see some of that "conference brotherhood" start to erode when schools in the bottom half of a conference continue to cash the checks, but don't reinvest some of it into building a somewhat competitive program.
The Congressional deal already has a salary cap in essence. Players unions are already forming at some schools. Some of this culling may just come organically by those schools who can't afford it.
I'll never say anything is impossible anymore.