Ok so, looking closer at this match up...
Michigan St. is ranked 44th in BPI, 43rd by Pomeroy, and 50th in RPI.
They finished with a 19-14 record, going 14-2 at home and 5-13 on the road. Against teams in the Pomeroy Top-50 they are 4-1 at home but 2-10 in away/neutral venues.
Comparatively, their team is quite similar to us. Statistically, they rank 66th in off. efficiency (UM 68th) and 34th in def. efficiency (UM 20th). They also have a tendency to turn the ball over, turning it over 20.7% of the time, ranking 310th (UM 19.6%, 243rd). They are average at rebounding ranking 180th in off. rebounds and 89th in off rebounds allowed, while Miami ranks 47th in off. rebs and 115th in off. rebs allowed.
They will also be without a key player in Eron Harris, who before being lost to injury was averaging 10.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg in 22 mins per game. Since losing Harris, Mich St. has gone 1-4.
They didnt finish the season strongly, going 5-5 in their last 10. 4-5 losses being to tourney teams but only 1-5 wins being against tourney teams.
Given their higher turnover rate and our better defense, I could see this playing a factor and giving Miami the edge. This is all contingent on which team shows up and if Ja'Quan tries to do too much or play within himself.
I think it ends up a sloppy game with high turnovers on both sides, but we edge them out. Should be relatively low scoring so I say first to 65+ wins.
UM 68 - Mich St. 63