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Canes @ Cards - Decider - 1pm - Annex

It doesn’t look like it’s updated since Friday, but Boyd’s RPI needs report indicates we can only lose one more game to finish in the top 16 (factoring in the one we lost Friday). It gives no path to a top 8 RPI finish. That would seemingly require a great ACC Tournament run. Our remaining schedule is awful from an RPI perspective sans Duke.

NCAA Division I Baseball -- RPI Needs Report

www.boydsworld.com
 
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jkdood said:
what counts most is what strike zone this ump is usually calling, not the official one... when you decide to take a close one with 2 strikes on you
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He had not called one that bad all game. I agree we take to many 3rd strikes , but that one? Please
 
scane said:
It doesn’t look like it’s updated since Friday, but Boyd’s RPI needs report indicates we can only lose one more game to finish in the top 16 (factoring in the one we lost Friday). It gives no path to a top 8 RPI finish. That would seemingly require a great ACC Tournament run. Our remaining schedule is awful from an RPI perspective sans Duke.

NCAA Division I Baseball -- RPI Needs Report

www.boydsworld.com
Click to expand...

Warren Nolan has us finishing at #33 going into the ACCT if we were to go 7-4 in these last three weeks.
 
scane said:
It doesn’t look like it’s updated since Friday, but Boyd’s RPI needs report indicates we can only lose one more game to finish in the top 16 (factoring in the one we lost Friday). It gives no path to a top 8 RPI finish. That would seemingly require a great ACC Tournament run. Our remaining schedule is awful from an RPI perspective sans Duke.

NCAA Division I Baseball -- RPI Needs Report

www.boydsworld.com
Click to expand...
Bummer, but I assume that projection takes into account some mean estimate of other similar RPI teams' performances down the stretch, no?
 
Duke took the series from Virginia and is a lock to host, so we need to take the Duke series and force the committee to give the ACC a 4th host. Right now D1 is just projecting 3 ACC hosts out of ten bids. Baseball America projects 4 hosts, but they're projecting Duke and BC to host.
 
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WanderFranco said:
Warren Nolan has us finishing at #33 going into the ACCT if we were to go 7-4 in these last three weeks.
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Matches up fairly well with Boyd’s top 32 thresholds, and not really surprising when you have 8 potential bad losses and 3 potential good wins.
 
BP Joe said:
Bummer, but I assume that projection takes into account some mean estimate of other similar RPI teams' performances down the stretch, no?
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He caveats that there’s a lot of room for movement, but it’s proven a decent rough guide over the years. It feels like 10-1 leaves you in a good spot to host and 9-2 puts you in a spot to host with some yet unknown good wins in the ACC tournament. That doesn’t leave much margin for Rosario to Rosario.
 
scane said:
Matches up fairly well with Boyd’s top 32 thresholds, and not really surprising when you have 8 potential bad losses and 3 potential good wins.
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And honestly, if we lose 4 of the last 11 w 7 home games against the likes of Presby, FIU, Pitt and Duke, we'll be lucky to be a 2 seed.
 
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S.CarolinaCane said:
Yea wo don't desperately need a sweep of Pitt, that's a bit dramatic. The coach is not going to emphasize that. We're a damned good team...but we're not necessarily an Omaha team. Bottom line is we don't have the 3 man rotation to be that. Grit can possibly get us there. Our pen has really shaped up and helped us a lot...but I don't see us getting through a Super with what we have

The emphasis should be on finishing the season with the momentum we currently have.
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The need for a sweep at Pitt is to improve the RPI. Losing just 1 game at Pitt and we'll drop 4 points because of their weak RPI. I can't remember who it was ( maybe ND) that won the series against Pitt 2-1, but dropped in the RPI.

Maybe a sweep is not a must, but it's highly desirable.
 
Number1CanesFan said:
The need for a sweep at Pitt is to improve the RPI. Losing just 1 game at Pitt and we'll drop 4 points because of their weak RPI. I can't remember who it was ( maybe ND) that won the series against Pitt 2-1, but dropped in the RPI.

Maybe a sweep is not a must, but it's highly desirable.
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If we win our next three series, we will have a national seed.
 
Miami, Florida

Remaining: 7 home, 4 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 14
ROWP: 0.470

Top 45:

1 home wins, 4 road wins
2 home wins, 3 road wins
3 home wins, 2 road wins
4 home wins, 1 road wins
5 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 32:

3 home wins, 4 road wins
4 home wins, 3 road wins
5 home wins, 2 road wins
6 home wins, 1 road wins
7 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 16:

6 home wins, 4 road wins
7 home wins, 2 road wins

Top 8:

No way to reach the threshold.


Gonna be tough to stay in the top 16 (RPI-wise). Our record vs RPI Top 50 took a hit once VT dropped out, but they should move back up as the season finishes with their closing schedule.

Any home loss would hurt, have to sweep those. Probably will all boil down to the Duke series, win that and RPI probably is good enough along with the record and ACC strength to at least ensure we host.
 
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Still believe we could consider Cyr in the 2-hole.

Farrow's quietly put together a nice little campaign and could drive in some runs hitting 5th.
 
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S.CarolinaCane said:
If we win our next three series, we will have a national seed.
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In my opinion, we need 2 series sweeps and a series win against Duke to get there. In 2-1 series wins against Q3 and Q4 teams, the RPI will still drop 2-4 places.

A series win against Duke would be a big boost.
 
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jmccomber5 said:
Those mid week losses are killers when you get to May, man
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I also believe 1 win against WF and we'd have a top 10 RPI.

Look at Coastal Carolina #9 and Indiana St. #10. I just don't understand the RPI.

RPI (Live) 2023 College Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

2023 College Baseball RPI (Rating Percentage Index) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

Coastal is 8-6 in Q1. Their biggest wins are 1 win each against WF and UNC. They however have 5 Q2 losses, 3 Q3 losses, and 1 Q4 loss. A good team, but really a top 10 RPI? There must be a lot of weight for their WF win.

Indiana St. At #10 RPI just makes me scratch my head. They are just 2-9 against Q1 opponents. How doest that get you a top 10 RPI?
 
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Number1CanesFan said:
I also believe 1 win against WF and we'd have a top 10 RPI.

Look at Coastal Carolina #9 and Indiana St. #10. I just don't understand the RPI.

RPI (Live) 2023 College Baseball | WarrenNolan.com

2023 College Baseball RPI (Rating Percentage Index) Updated in REAL-TIME for Every Team at the Completion of Every Game.
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com

Coastal is 8-6 in Q1. Their biggest wins are 1 win each against WF and UNC. They however have 5 Q2 losses, 3 Q3 losses, and 1 Q4 loss. A good team, but really a top 10 RPI? There must be a lot of weight for their WF win.

Indiana St. At #10 RPI just makes me scratch my head. They are just 2-9 against Q1 opponents. How doest that get you a top 10 RPI?
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This is exactly why we'll have a national seed if we win the next three series. That's all there is to it.

You're trying to make this too technical
 
ewcanes said:
Miami, Florida

Remaining: 7 home, 4 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 14
ROWP: 0.470

Top 45:

1 home wins, 4 road wins
2 home wins, 3 road wins
3 home wins, 2 road wins
4 home wins, 1 road wins
5 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 32:

3 home wins, 4 road wins
4 home wins, 3 road wins
5 home wins, 2 road wins
6 home wins, 1 road wins
7 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 16:

6 home wins, 4 road wins
7 home wins, 2 road wins

Top 8:

No way to reach the threshold.


Gonna be tough to stay in the top 16 (RPI-wise). Our record vs RPI Top 50 took a hit once VT dropped out, but they should move back up as the season finishes with their closing schedule.

Any home loss would hurt, have to sweep those. Probably will all boil down to the Duke series, win that and RPI probably is good enough along with the record and ACC strength to at least ensure we host.
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This morning’s Needs Report is a little better still. It now says we can lose a combination of any two games vs either one home game or two road games to finish in the top 16.
 
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