—— Long Reply but necessary ——
It’s kinda hard,
@canesstevealum08 , to answer this question. We have two different factions of thoughts: Manny the head coach, and Manny the DC.
While it’s true Manny has only been our head coach since 2019, he’s been w/ the program since 2016.
@flagator86 brought up a really good point; the propensity of our teams not looking prepared against opponents. That needs to be taken in to consideration.
This thread caused me to do some digging to see how we have trended as a program. While guys like Baby Richt, Rumph, Banda, Baker, Patke, and even CMR have taken the brunt of our ire, Diaz have remained, mostly, absolved from criticism w/ the exception of few, including myself,
@The Franchise &
@Dwinstitles & others.
I try to be fair and equitable in my takes, looking at totality vs. moments. In order to see our trend, it’s best we look at how we faired against 3 factors since Diaz has been here to see if we can take that next step:
1. Top 25 opponents at time of match up
2. Teams that ended the season top 25 (see the Al Golden 2013 rule)
3, Opponents who possessed a top 30 offense
*B/c we’re talking about Diaz, we’ll be focusing on the defense during this evaluation. From 2016 - 2020 here’s our avg:
-28th in the country in Total Def while giving up about 341 in total yards, and 21.2 ppg.
With that being said, let’s dive:
Point 1: Since 2016, we have faced 13 top 25 opponents. Our record against such opponents is 6-7. In those games, the defense gave up, on avg., 376 ypg & 24 ppg. A little over our avg., but not terrible.
Point 2: Since 2016, out of those 13 teams that were ranked top 25 at time of our matchup, 10 finished in the top 25. Our record vs those 10 were 3-7. In those games, the def gave up, on avg., 386 ypg & 27.8 ppg.
Point 3: Since 2016, we’ve played 10 teams that’s possessed a top 30 offense. We were 6-4 against such opponents giving up, on avg. 447.1 ypg & 29 ppg.
**Interesting to note that in 4 of these 6 victories, the offense put up out of world production to carry the team**
So what does this tell us? Well, there’s a caveat to this. See
@The Franchise told us that Diaz’s defense is smoke & mirrors. Was he correct? From 2016 - the beginning of 2017, we went 3-1 against Top 25 opponents, holding them to 13 ppg and 299 ypg, which was elite!
Thennnn, the ACCCG happened. From The ACCCG - current, we’ve gone 3-6 against top 25 opponents, and 0 for against those who’ve finished top 25. The def since The ACCCG has given up, on avg. 410 ypg & 30 ppg against top 25 opponents at time of match up, and 443.5 ypg & 37.6 ppg against teams that finished in the top 25.
This trend shows that, one, against prime time opponents, we’ve not fared well. Two, our overall defensive rankings against formidable opponents since the ACCCG has been less than stellar. As some have pointed, Diaz’s Def appears to feast & put up godly #’s against inferior opponents & offenses. However, when an offense hits back, regardless of the caliber of the team, the Def shrinks, leaving the offense to have to play above its very own rankings.
Moving fwd, we have to show we can play with the big boys (top 25 opponents), AND we can’t find ourselves in dog fights w/ inferior opponents (see FIU, LA Tech, NCSt, UVA, Pitt).
This season we’re projected to play ONLY two Reg season top 25 opponents. One of which should be a revenge game. Yr 3 as a HC & yr 6 w/in the program will tell us a lot. It’s not fair to compare Diaz to Butch b/c Butch came in dealing w/ a notch above a death penalty. Let’s just put it like this; Golden in year 3 at least started 7-0, facing a top 25 opponent to kick off the season (and yes we know how that Gator team fared). Year 3 is generally a turning point, so it’s pivotal the trend reverses its course.
![Miami[]_[]Smoke](https://data.canesinsight.com/avatars/m/16/16959.jpg?1664075159){kind=avatar}
