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Bracketology

Cane since 1060 said:
This will be a gigantic game for VT and an impossible indescribable game of importance for Miami. I am excited but concerned does anyone have a line on the game yet ?
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Think the line has now moved to us being a 1 point favorite (from previously being a 1 point dog a day or so ago). Basically, a pick-em game to the oddsmakers.

IMO, VT is talented. Def underachieved this season. Got off to an horrendous start and never really turned that around.
 

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Notsince1985 said:
the sopranos smile GIF
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Asbury Park 'boards'
 
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TheOriginalCane said:
You make great points. I would add on something very simple.

"Winning by a big margin" sounds great in theory, particularly early in the season. But it's garbage, and here's why.

In this era of "one-and-dones" and the Portal, the concept that a team just rolls the ball out in November and starts to destroy the competition is a joke. There are new players, new roles (Pack playing the point), and an absolute need to start getting minutes for the non-starters.

If you are ahead against a lesser team in November or December, what should a coach do? Chase a blowout to make Kenpom happy? Or give the freshmen minutes while making sure you win the game.

****, look at Miami this year. ONE bad "margin" loss, by 18 to Maryland. Tournament. Neutral site. Early season.

Hasn't happened since. Our other 4 losses (all in-conference) were by 6, 3, 2, and 2.

The REASON that these "Kenpoms" and "Bracketologies" are updated every few days is BECAUSE the season continues to evolve. But we have stats nerds (even some who CLAIM to be Miami fans) come on this board to tell us how some 18-point loss ON NOVEMBER 20 is supposed to define our seeding. Four of our five losses were to teams that are CURRENTLY projected to make the Tournament.

Again, I've made this point over and over and over again. Win games. It's what you're supposed to do. The BCS got rid of "margin of victory" decades ago. You can't change your schedule.

But let's look at the 4 MOST EGREGIOUS teams that are seeded ahead of Miami by the NCAA.

Iowa State - 17-9 (8-6 conference) - Lost 6 of their last 10 - Lost by 18 to UConn, lost by 20 to Iowa, lost by 17 to Mizzou, got SWEPT by Oklahoma State (one of the worst teams in the Big 12), lost by 3 to Texas Tech (one of the worst teams in the Big 12), lost by 5 to WVU (one of the worst teams in the Big 12).

Kansas State - 20-7 (8-6 conference) - Lost 5 of their last 7) - Lost by 12 to Butler, lost by 8 to Texas Tech (one of the worst teams in the Big 12), lost by 14 to Oklahoma (one of the worst teams in the Big 12).

Indiana - 19-8 (10-6 conference) - LOST BY 15 TO RUTGERS (A TEAM MIAMI BEAT), Lost by 19 to Pedo State (one of the worst teams in the Big 10), lost by 11 to Maryland (the team that beat Miami by a "massive" 18 points).

Xavier - 20-7 (12-4 conference) - Lost by 17 to Creighton, Lost by 1 to DePaul (one of the worst teams in the Big East), Lost by 2 to Butler (one of the worst teams in the Big East).

Each of those FOUR teams have 1-2 double-digit losses (comparable to our ONE double-digit loss) and 1 to 3 losses to "one of the worst teams in the conference" (comparable to our ONE bad conference loss to GaTech).

So WHY are we ranked behind those four teams in the initial NCAA seeding?

The first three teams are OUTRAGEOUS for being seeded ahead of Miami. Those are three teams that if ONE (OR TWO for Indiana) conference game(s) had fallen differently, they would be at .500 for the conference. Xavier is the ONLY one of those four that have an ARGUMENT for being seeded ahead of Miami, and they had TWO bad conference losses to Miami's ONE.

**** all the stats nerds. This is some BULL****.
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That's my problem with Metrics.

A team can go 25-0, lose their last 5 and lose in the first round of their conference tourney (25-6) and be "metrically"
better than a team who loses their first 7, runs the table, then wins their conference tourney (26-7).

Somewhere in this process someone's got to read the room...have a feel for what's going on.
If it's metric driven only, then why have a committee?

That being said, we're going to be a 3 or 4 seed in the South.
If we're as good as we think we are, and can advance after that "bad" game, we can do some damage there.
 
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I hate VPI, and I really want to win there, but they're 12-2 at home with wins over UVA, Duke and Pitt. I'm not expecting a win, and would be fine finishing 2-1 (though I really want to win).
 
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Notsince1985 said:
I hate VPI, and I really want to win there, but they're 12-2 at home with wins over UVA, Duke and Pitt. I'm not expecting a win, and would be fine finishing 2-1 (though I really want to win).
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And this is where I say...

**** VaTech. It's not about their home court, they are about to be knocked out of contention for any sort of NCAA slot.

This is about MIAMI going out and proving that it can win challenging games in adversarial arenas. We will have to do the same in Greensboro and wherever we go for the NCAA Tournament. If this team deserves a #2 or #3 seed, they are going to have to go out and prove it by running the table and making a deep ACC Tournament run.

Now, we should not HAVE to prove this to the NCAA, they should give us what we have earned with our wins. But the team needs to prove it to themselves, that they can win on the road, that they can win in Tobacco Road country (find VaTech on a map).
 
Notsince1985 said:
I hate VPI, and I really want to win there, but they're 12-2 at home with wins over UVA, Duke and Pitt. I'm not expecting a win, and would be fine finishing 2-1 (though I really want to win).
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They’re 12-3.. Canes are 6-4 on the road.

Also, someone else brought up the line. It’s -2 VT.
 
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I understand why Lunardi moved Miami down but going 2-0 with wins in Chapel Hill and against Wake last week, 22-5, 13-4, 2nd place in the ACC and a 5 seed. Dumb.

Michigan State is 16-10, 8-7 and 9th in the Big 10 and they are projected as a 7. Dumb.
 
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b caned said:
Lol Lunardi has us as a 5 seed and moving down in his latest bull**** mock otherwise known as bracketology. Laughable at this point…
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The arrow down is the real laughable part. 6 wins in a row, including road victories at Clemson and North Carolina. I guess bloated Lunardi is unimpressed. When you're Miami you have to find a way to win 7 of your last 6 games to not be trending down.
 
If the committee is truly doing their job and picked the bracket today we are a 3 seed. If we go 2-1 and 2-1 in the Acc tourney we are a 3/4. If we limp down the stretch we should fall no farther than 5. If we really turn it on we are a 2.

But from a fan standpoint let’s just take care of Ba tech tonight
 
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