I don't think it's unrealistic to ask for this program to be a perennial top 25 team and somewhere in the 7-9 seed range come tourney time. We aren't Duke or Kansas but I wouldn't mind being a Wisconsin or UVA.
What I am holding Coach L responsible for is potentially wasting the most talented team we've ever had here, featuring two lottery picks and another future NBA player in Huell. Yes we have deficiencies, but we shouldn't be losing to NMSU in Maui or GT on the road.
A few things and I apologize for my lack of brevity. Feel free to not read this diatribe, but I agree with some of what you said.
1. When I arrived at UM, we were nothing. When I left, we were nothing. We were irrelevant when it came to basketball. Since we joined the ACC (04-05) and until Coach L arrived, we accomplished the following:
- 1 NCAAT in 7 seasons
- 0 Winning Seasons (in terms of conference wins) and a 43-69 (.384) conference record
- Average Finish in conference 8th place (really 8.3)
We were pathetic. We were irrelevant.
2. Then Coach L decided to submit his resume (wiki) to an AD and the following happened:
- 3 NCAAT in 6 seasons (the last time we went twice in a row 1999-00, we went 3 times a row)
- 5 Winning Seasons (in terms of conference wins) and a 66-45 (.595) conference record
- ACC Conference Champ
- 2 x Sweet 16 Appearances and 2 Top 10 Teams (finishing in the top 10)
- Records against the following:
Duke: 5-4
UNC: 5-4
FSU: 8-6 (Please note I am not saying this is an accomplishment, I am just comparing him to the other "successful" coach at UM)
Now we're relevant. Now we finish in the top of the conference, regularly. Now making the NCAAT is no big deal because it happens more frequently.
-----------
3. Is Coach L regressing? Have we hit our ceiling?
First 3 Seasons: 66-36 (31-21), 1 ACC Champ, 1 NCAAT, 1 Sweet 16
Average Recruiting Ranking: 51st
2012: 99th
2013: 27th
2014: 26th
Second 3 Seasons: 73-33 (33-21), 0 ACC Champ, 2 NCAAT, 1 Sweet 16
Average Ranking: 34th
2015: 77th
2016: 15th
2017: 9th
So to review the above:
- We're winning more games now and making the tourney more often
- Recruiting is getting better and our best recruiting has been recently
Does the fact that we "only" made the Sweet 16 twice (in 6 seasons) and have 3 NCAATs mean we hit our "ceiling"?
The obvious thing is the talent is getting better and we're winning more games. We're also making the NCAAT more consistently. It took Mark Few 16 seasons to make it past the Sweet 16. It took Mike Brey 15 seasons to make it past the Sweet 16. It took Chris Mack 8 seasons.
Neither correlate to Coach L having success here but sometimes it takes time. We know Coach L has made it further than the Sweet 16, so he is certainly capable of getting there again.
4. My Concerns and our future:
This season: I believe this team has been both under-performing and overrated. I put some of that on Coach L (the under-performing). I don't understand his love for Newton, in fact I hate it. I don't understand that let down against Duke. I believe the talent, although "raw", is the most talented team (on paper) he has here. My problem is his big strength is having older and mature players and that is not this team. If he wants to play this game (better talent), he needs to develop them and have them buy-in quicker.
My other concern about this team is the lack of leadership. Last year we had Murphy and Reed. This year we have no one. We really need someone to step up and be a vocal leader. My hope is that Brown can be that guy. I also hope that Coach L stops starting Newton and limits his time altogether.
2018 Recruiting/Transfers: I don't put that on Coach L but with that said, he needs to bring in some kids. The past 2 seasons we didn't max out the class and left a scholarship open each year. He really needs to bring in some players/transfers because we can't take no one.