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Betting Season

UnForgiven said:
Same. And some monster parlays at that were tied to them.

Crushing day overall. Ole miss and usc blowing it iced the cake. Cal was soul crushing and costly as well.
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Had over 64 for Wake/clemson in a 5 team parlay that was the only one that didn’t hit so I feel ya.
 
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Probably some good value now on OSU for the Big 10/Natty odds after the loss. I still expect a Oregon Ohio state rematch in the big ten title game
 
South Alabama
MTSU
LA Tech

WKU
FIU
Marshall
VA Tech
Duke
Oregon
BYU
Fresno ST
AZ ST
USF
Colorado
Texas
Iowa ST
North Texas
TCU
Clemson
Nebraska
Mizzou
Army
Northwestern
Rutgers
Wake Forest
ULL
EMU
South Carolina
Tulsa
Tennessee
Notre Dame
Illinois
Navy
NC ST
Kansas
Texas ST
Ohio
WMU
Toledo
UTSA
Tulane
USC
TTech
Utah ST
San Jose ST
Georgia Southern
Miss ST
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Ark ST
West VA
Mich ST
Florida
SMU
Colorado ST
Oregon ST
 
Hit a nice one yesterday.

20241014_223059.jpg
 
Memnon said:
My picks for the week:
Coastal Carolina
LA Tech
WKU
AZ ST
Maryland
Utah ST
Texas
UCF
Memphis
BYU
Ole Miss
Bama
Clemson
Mizzou
Washington
Rutgers
UNC
Kent ST
Toledo
Army
EMU
USC
Notre Dame
Cal
Illinois
LVille
San Jose ST
San Diego ST
Georgia ST
WMU
Bowling Green
Ohio
ULM
Tennessee
New Mexico
Wash ST
Texas ST
North TX
UTSA
Oregon
Oregon ST
ULL
Vanderbilt
West VA
Cuse
Georgia Southern
UCLA
Colorado
Boise ST
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OK for Week 7 @Memnon picks total results below:

Week 7:

FAVORED: (Won 23 out of 33 for a 70% hit rate)

LA Tech - WON
WKU - WON
Maryland - LOST
Texas - WON
UCF - LOST
Memphis - WON
BYU - WON
Ole Miss - LOST
Alabama - WON
Clemson - WON
Missouri - WON
Rutgers - LOST
Toledo - LOST
Army - WON
Notre Dame - WON
Illinois - WON
Louisville - WON
San Jose State - LOST
Georgia State - LOST
Western Michigan U - WON
Bowling Green - LOST
Ohio - WON
Louisiana Monroe - WON
Tennessee – WON
New Mexico - WON
Washington State - WON
Texas State - WON
North Texas - WON
UTSA - LOST
Oregon State - LOST
UL Lafayette - WON
Syracuse - WON
Boise State - WON


UPSETS (Won 5 out of 16 for a 31% hit rate / Covered OR Won 11 out of 16 for a 69% hit rate)

Coastal Carolina (+7.5) – LOST (Did Not Cover)
Arizona State (+5) - WON
Utah State (+19.5) – LOST (Covered)
Washington (+3) – LOST (Did Not Cover)
UNC (+3.5) – LOST (Did Not Cover)
Kent State (+4.5) – LOST (Covered)
Eastern Michigan U (+2.5) – LOST (Did Not Cover)
USC (+3.5) – LOST (Covered)
California (+3.5) – LOST (Covered)
San Diego State (+1) - WON
Oregon (+3) - WON
Vanderbilt (+12.5) - WON
West Virginia (+3.5) – LOST (Did Not Cover)
Georgia Southern (+1) - WON
UCLA (+4.5) – LOST (Covered)
Colorado (+3.5) – LOST (Covered)


Overall Results – 28 out of 49 for a 57% Hit Rate
 
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UnForgiven said:
OK for Week 7 @Memnon picks total results below:

Week 7:

UPSETS (Won 5 out of 16 for a 31% hit rate / Covered OR Won 11 out of 16 for a 69% hit rate)

Coastal Carolina (+7.5) – LOST (Did Not Cover)
Arizona State (+5) - WON
Utah State (+19.5) – LOST (Covered)
Washington (+3) – LOST (Did Not Cover)
UNC (+3.5) – LOST (Did Not Cover)
Kent State (+4.5) – LOST (Covered)
Eastern Michigan U (+2.5) – LOST (Did Not Cover)
USC (+3.5) – LOST (Covered)
California (+3.5) – LOST (Covered)
San Diego State (+1) - WON
Oregon (+3) - WON
Vanderbilt (+12.5) - WON
West Virginia (+3.5) – LOST (Did Not Cover)
Georgia Southern (+1) - WON
UCLA (+4.5) – LOST (Covered)
Colorado (+3.5) – LOST (Covered)


Overall Results – 28 out of 49 for a 57% Hit Rate
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OK so just to keep it real - this was the roughest upset week we've had. No biggie, stuff happens, but man far and away my worst college betting weekend yet on a bunch of close parlay whiffs.

On to my strategy of straight betting each of the Upsets:

Last week (Week 7) I bet $10 each on all of these upsets. 16 games so $160 out. Unfortunately only won 5 of 16 - what came back was $139.54. So, Net loss was a bit over $20. Honestly considering that's with less than 1/3 of the upsets hitting, that's really not bad at all. One more additional upset would have righted the ship I think.

Continue to believe straight betting upsets is a good move, but also starting to wonder about taking bets to COVER on the 'serious underdogs' - if @Memnon thinks they can win, it should at least be a close game if there is a big spread. And using THAT approach last week would have been very profitable, as his Upset picks covered or won 11 out of 16 times.

Fun times.
 
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Memnon said:
South Alabama
MTSU
LA Tech

WKU
FIU
Marshall
VA Tech
Duke
Oregon
BYU
Fresno ST
AZ ST
USF
Colorado
Texas
Iowa ST
North Texas
TCU
Clemson
Nebraska
Mizzou
Army
Northwestern
Rutgers
Wake Forest
ULL
EMU
South Carolina
Tulsa
Tennessee
Notre Dame
Illinois
Navy
NC ST
Kansas
Texas ST
Ohio
WMU
Toledo
UTSA
Tulane
USC
TTech
Utah ST
San Jose ST
Georgia Southern
Miss ST
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Ark ST
West VA
Mich ST
Florida
SMU
Colorado ST
Oregon ST
Click to expand...

Sorry my good man, once again I'm slow to the dance and didn't even realize there were such early week games. Nonetheless I back-checked the odds and so below I can snapshot the Upsets.

So far so good, first one hit.

Worth mentioning to any followers that these are the lines I see on Hard Rock Bet at the time I do these posts).

Week 8 UPSETS (23 Total)

Western Kentucky U (+1.5) - WON
Arizona State (+5)
Colorado (+3)
North Texas (+11)
TCU (+4)
Nebraska (+6.5)
Northwestern (+7.5)
Wake Forest (+2)
South Carolina (+1.5)
Tulsa (+3)
Tennessee (+3)
Illinois (+3)
NC State (+9.5)
Ohio (+3.5)
Toledo (+2.5)
Utah State (+2.5)
Georgia Southern (+10)
Mississippi State (+16.5)
Arkansas (+1.5)
West Virginia (+3)
Michigan State (+4.5)
Florida (+2)
Oregon State (+7)


Boy there is a lot to chew on here. Good luck guys.

EDIT: So I can't take all those bets on Hard Rock it exceeds the limits. So I skipped every one that was a 5 point dog or more...15 bet parlay. $5 pays just under $1.1 million lol - I placed it. Standard rules apply. Good luck @Memnon

Also thinking of running parlays on ONLY the heavy underdogs for fun, and then dicing these up based on my own thoughts.
 
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For those that watch pate pretty interesting stat. He picked Miami to win and cover this weekend too
 
UnForgiven said:
Sorry my good man, once again I'm slow to the dance and didn't even realize there were such early week games. Nonetheless I back-checked the odds and so below I can snapshot the Upsets.

So far so good, first one hit.

Worth mentioning to any followers that these are the lines I see on Hard Rock Bet at the time I do these posts).

Week 8 UPSETS (23 Total)

Western Kentucky U (+1.5) - WON
Arizona State (+5)
Colorado (+3)
North Texas (+11)
TCU (+4)
Nebraska (+6.5)
Northwestern (+7.5)
Wake Forest (+2)
South Carolina (+1.5)
Tulsa (+3)
Tennessee (+3)
Illinois (+3)
NC State (+9.5)
Ohio (+3.5)
Toledo (+2.5)
Utah State (+2.5)
Georgia Southern (+10)
Mississippi State (+16.5)
Arkansas (+1.5)
West Virginia (+3)
Michigan State (+4.5)
Florida (+2)
Oregon State (+7)


Boy there is a lot to chew on here. Good luck guys.

EDIT: So I can't take all those bets on Hard Rock it exceeds the limits. So I skipped every one that was a 5 point dog or more...15 bet parlay. $5 pays just under $1.1 million lol - I placed it. Standard rules apply. Good luck @Memnon

Also thinking of running parlays on ONLY the heavy underdogs for fun, and then dicing these up based on my own thoughts.
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look into round robins with the underdog MLs, pick a couple and round robin them
 
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Iowa, MSST, Auburn, UF, Arkansas, Army (shoutout Jake Garcia) to cover
Texas to win (UGA gets too many penalties and Texas offense too high-powered)
Oklahoma team total under (SC defense is nice and OU hasn't shown ability to have explosive plays)
UM team total over
FSU-Duke under
 
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Tempest said:
I like Bama -3 vs Tenn. Anyone else feel strongly about it one way or the other?
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In a toss up game i like having points in my pocket.
Can we really feel comfortable laying points with Alabama's defense????

The only advantage bettors have over the books is that they have to put a line out for every game,
We can choose weather to play or not.

With all of that being said, i like Tennessee 1st Half ML.
 
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