thats on one parley? lol
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- Thread starter Shooter McGavin
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OK for Week 5 @Memnon picks the results are below:
UPSETS (Won 5 out of 14 @ 36% hit rate): (EDITED - I had the Oklahoma state game wrong before, fixed it)
Temple – LOST (by 28 pts)
TCU - WON
Colorado - WON
Arizona - WON
Oklahoma State - LOST (by 22 pts)
Maryland – LOST (by 14 pts)
UAB – LOST (by 23 pts)
Auburn – LOST (by 6 pts)
Arkansas – LOST (by 4 pts)
Fresno State – LOST (by 45 pts)
UTSA – LOST (by 10 pts)
Old Dominion – WON
Alabama - WON
Wash State – LOST (by 21 pts)
FAVORED: (Won 26 out of 34 – 1 game canceled @ 76% hit rate )
Rutgers - WON
Ole Miss - LOST
Tulane - WON
Texas - WON
Memphis - WON
Baylor - LOST
Nebraska - WON
UCONN - WON
Boston College - WON
James Madison U - WON
Texas State - WON
USC - WON
Notre Dame - WON
Wake Forest - LOST
Liberty - CANCELED
Central Michigan U - WON
Georgia State - LOST
Marshall - WON
Ohio - WON
Eastern Michigan U – WON
Duke - WON
Louisiana Tech - LOST
Ohio State - WON
Clemson - WON
Iowa State - WON
Troy - LOST
Rice - LOST
North Texas - WON
Penn State - WON
LSU - WON
SMU - WON
Texas Tech - WON
New Mexico - WON
Air Force - LOST
Oregon - WON
TOTAL HIT RATE - 29 out of 48 @ 60% Hit rate.
I'm going to break down the latest picks later...and try something different. I am going to include the 'current' spread on these games using Hard Rock bet for the upset. The idea being - maybe there's a strategy of taking the points on all the upsets, so that the 'close misses' can still pay.
(EDITED - I somehow goofed the Oklahoma State game, fixed it now)
UPSETS (Won 5 out of 14 @ 36% hit rate): (EDITED - I had the Oklahoma state game wrong before, fixed it)
Temple – LOST (by 28 pts)
TCU - WON
Colorado - WON
Arizona - WON
Oklahoma State - LOST (by 22 pts)
Maryland – LOST (by 14 pts)
UAB – LOST (by 23 pts)
Auburn – LOST (by 6 pts)
Arkansas – LOST (by 4 pts)
Fresno State – LOST (by 45 pts)
UTSA – LOST (by 10 pts)
Old Dominion – WON
Alabama - WON
Wash State – LOST (by 21 pts)
FAVORED: (Won 26 out of 34 – 1 game canceled @ 76% hit rate )
Rutgers - WON
Ole Miss - LOST
Tulane - WON
Texas - WON
Memphis - WON
Baylor - LOST
Nebraska - WON
UCONN - WON
Boston College - WON
James Madison U - WON
Texas State - WON
USC - WON
Notre Dame - WON
Wake Forest - LOST
Liberty - CANCELED
Central Michigan U - WON
Georgia State - LOST
Marshall - WON
Ohio - WON
Eastern Michigan U – WON
Duke - WON
Louisiana Tech - LOST
Ohio State - WON
Clemson - WON
Iowa State - WON
Troy - LOST
Rice - LOST
North Texas - WON
Penn State - WON
LSU - WON
SMU - WON
Texas Tech - WON
New Mexico - WON
Air Force - LOST
Oregon - WON
TOTAL HIT RATE - 29 out of 48 @ 60% Hit rate.
I'm going to break down the latest picks later...and try something different. I am going to include the 'current' spread on these games using Hard Rock bet for the upset. The idea being - maybe there's a strategy of taking the points on all the upsets, so that the 'close misses' can still pay.
(EDITED - I somehow goofed the Oklahoma State game, fixed it now)
Last edited:
Flynell7
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I like Syracuse even better at +7
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SinCityCane
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Thank you sir. Breakdown below. Again I am making a small change here in that I am adding the points being given for the Underdogs. And unfortunately 2 games already happened so I kept those on there as well.
Week 6:
FAVORED:
Sam Houston – WON
TCU
Jacksonville State
Oregon
Ole Miss
Arizona State
Arizona
Penn State
Northern Illinois
University of Virginia
NC State
Navy
Western Michigan
Ohio State
Georgia
UConn
Virginia Tech
Marshall
Toledo
Bowling Green
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Alabama
Oregon State
Clemson
Boise State
Coastal Caroline
James Madison
University of Lafayette Louisiana (ULL)
Tennessee
Washington
USC
Iowa State
San Jose State
Georgia Tech
San Diego State
UPSETS:
Troy (+13.5 pts) – LOST by 21
Syracuse (+6 pts)
Florida (+1.5 pts)
Missouri (+2.5 pts)
SMU (+6.5 pts)
Purdue (+12.5 pts)
North Carolina (+2.5 pts)
Charlotte (+9 pts)
Arkansas State (+3 pts)
Odysseus
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I'm thinking on taking Florida, Syracuse, and SMU to cover those underdog spreads
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So last week I just put $5 on each upset. 14 games, $5 each, $70 went out. What came back was $83.16. So even hitting only 5 out of 14, there was a modest profit.
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So on this one, we already have one down unfortunately.
Here, I am going to take the remaining 8 games and:
- Bet each one to win
- Bet each one with points
- Take a single parlay for the home run (FYI - $5 pays $14,348.83 for all 8 to win)
- Break out probably 3-4 parlays out of the above all to win
Enjoy ya degenerates!
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+$13, lunch @ McDs
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Yeah lol. I mean, I'm just trying to figure out where the profit line lies, and of course it will vary week to week, but as I've said before - hitting upsets at even 40% consistently would make you a lot of money if you were throwing big numbers around.
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I'm very worried about Florida b/c I see them just falling apart in full meltdown mode. Unrelated but the Purdue upset worries me too. Syracuse and SMU look very solid to cover. Syracuse for the win I'm ok with. SMU may have a tough battle with Louisville to pull out the W.
mr.h
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It’s now 5.5
Reyrey
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2024: 43-27 61%
Will have more plays but this was locked in early.
Syracuse UNLV o58
UNLV offense is a little different with the new QB, more passing. I think both teams can score. UNLV at home, I think this is a big scoring one
2 Team Parlay
Michigan State+24.5
Cuse +6.5
Fridays are weird. 24.5 is over 4 scores. I think Oregon is maybe looking ahead to Ohio state. Still don’t think Oregon has played solid teams/well. Cuse, I think they are better, especially offensively. Gimmie the points
FWIW I don’t really count parlays in my record, they are usually long shots or small unit plays.
Miami -10.5.
Dline is going to eat this weekend. I think we cover
Rutgers +6.5
I like this rutgers team. The run and play defense. I think they make it difficult for this true freshman qb.
UCLA +28.5
**** Penn state. Lay an egg
South Carolina +10
Sounds like USCs qb is back. I think ole miss has some oline issues. That’s not good for a team with a really really good dline.
SMU +7
Not really confident, but I think Louisville is a little overrated. They might win outright, but not by more than a TD.
Clemson -14
They roll big.
Duke +9.5
Manny teams capitalize on mistakes and turnovers. GT loves to shoot themselves in the foot. Gimmie the points
My underdog parlay for the weekend +11645
South Carolina
Rutgers
Duke
Texas Tech
Will have more plays but this was locked in early.
Syracuse UNLV o58
UNLV offense is a little different with the new QB, more passing. I think both teams can score. UNLV at home, I think this is a big scoring one
2 Team Parlay
Michigan State+24.5
Cuse +6.5
Fridays are weird. 24.5 is over 4 scores. I think Oregon is maybe looking ahead to Ohio state. Still don’t think Oregon has played solid teams/well. Cuse, I think they are better, especially offensively. Gimmie the points
FWIW I don’t really count parlays in my record, they are usually long shots or small unit plays.
Miami -10.5.
Dline is going to eat this weekend. I think we cover
Rutgers +6.5
I like this rutgers team. The run and play defense. I think they make it difficult for this true freshman qb.
UCLA +28.5
**** Penn state. Lay an egg
South Carolina +10
Sounds like USCs qb is back. I think ole miss has some oline issues. That’s not good for a team with a really really good dline.
SMU +7
Not really confident, but I think Louisville is a little overrated. They might win outright, but not by more than a TD.
Clemson -14
They roll big.
Duke +9.5
Manny teams capitalize on mistakes and turnovers. GT loves to shoot themselves in the foot. Gimmie the points
My underdog parlay for the weekend +11645
South Carolina
Rutgers
Duke
Texas Tech
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redcane
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Duke played UNC last week. They got Ga. Tech tomorrow.
Reyrey
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Oops meant GT
Reyrey
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I typed this earlier today before any of the games started…
Unfortunately I can't bet because I live in communist-run WA state and I have to be on the property of a casino to make sports bets. If I was a betting man:
Looking at all the lines today-
Oregon (-23.5) - MSU 23.5 is crazy high. If Clemson is only getting 15 against FSU by comparison, I don't think I could bet on Oregon to cover the spread.
Cuse (+6 ) UNLV too much uncertainty with how the new UNLV qb will play for UNLV to be favored
SMU (+6.5) UL could be a blowout by either team. Would stay away from this one
Where I would bet:
Pitt (-2.5) UNC- UNC is horrible
Wake (+4) NC St - Wake stinks
And I would bet the farm on Clemson at -14 to boatrace FSU
Unfortunately I can't bet because I live in communist-run WA state and I have to be on the property of a casino to make sports bets. If I was a betting man:
Looking at all the lines today-
Oregon (-23.5) - MSU 23.5 is crazy high. If Clemson is only getting 15 against FSU by comparison, I don't think I could bet on Oregon to cover the spread.
Cuse (+6 ) UNLV too much uncertainty with how the new UNLV qb will play for UNLV to be favored
SMU (+6.5) UL could be a blowout by either team. Would stay away from this one
Where I would bet:
Pitt (-2.5) UNC- UNC is horrible
Wake (+4) NC St - Wake stinks
And I would bet the farm on Clemson at -14 to boatrace FSU
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