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Analyzing and predicting the next AP poll (12/11)

TheOriginalCane

TheOriginalCane

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- Duke (11-1) - 10-0 at #1 ranking - since: 57 point home win over St. Francis (3-5), 5 point loss at Boston Coll (7-3)
- Kansas (7-1) - 7-0 at #2 ranking - since: 9 point home loss to Washington (7-2), playing #1 6 ranked Arizona St (8-0) today
- Michigan St (9-1) - 7-1 at #3 ranking - since: 10 point win at Rutgers (8-3), 25 point home win over So. Utah (5-4)
- Villanova (9-0) - 8-0 at #4 ranking - since: 16 point win at #1 2 ranked Gonzaga (7-2), playing LaSalle (5-5) today
- Florida (6-3) - 5-1 at #5 ranking - since: 17 point home loss to F$U (8-0), 6 point home loss to Loyola Chicago (10-1), 6 point win at #1 7 ranked Cincinnati (7-2)
- Wichita St (8-1) - 6-1 at #6 ranking - since: 10 point home win over S. Dak St (8-4), 12 point win at OK St (7-2)
- Texas A&M (8-1) - 7-0 at #7 ranking - since: 3 point loss at Arizona (7-3), 20 point home win over Prairie View (2-7)
- Kentucky (8-1) - 7-1 at #8 ranking - since: 17 point home win over Monmouth (3-7)
- Notre Dame (8-2) - 7-1 at #9 ranking - since: 3 point home loss to Ball State (6-4), 24 point win at Delaware (4-6)
- Miami (8-0) - 7-0 at #1 0 ranking - since: 15 point home win over Boston Univ (4-4)
- North Carolina (9-1) - 8-1 at #1 1 ranking - since: 43 point home win over Western Carolina (3-7)

Duke and Kansas will drop. Kansas' loss is worse than Duke's, but Kansas can rehabilitate themselves with a win over a ranked team.

Michigan State and Villanova should rise. Assuming Villanova wins today, they should be #1 with more impressive wins this week.

Florida should drop out of the Top 10. Even a win over a ranked team won't fix 3 consecutive losses.

Wichita State and Kentucky did not lose, but may not jump Kansas if Kansas wins by a lot today.

Texas A&M and Notre Dame will drop after losses.

Miami and North Carolina had comparable weeks, with just 1 game played (wins by each).

Top 5 teams SHOULD be:

1. Villanova
2. Michigan State
3. Wichita State
4. Kentucky
5. Miami

The only wild card in that mix would be if Kansas has a big win over a ranked Arizona St team and stays in the Top 5.
 
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One thing I like about NCAAM rankings is that they don't drop you a lot for stupid losses. It will be and should be:


1. Villanova
2. Duke(They beat Mich St by 8)
3. Michigan State
4. Kentucky
5. Wichita State
6. Kansas
7. Miami
8. UNC
9. Texas A&M
10. Xavier
 
TOC,

Before I get to US, some other teams should be obviously moving down after recent events:

- UF (lost 3 straight games before beating #17 Cinn)
- TAMpon (lost a road game to UNR Arizona)
- Notre Dame (lost their second game to UNR Ball State)

As for Duke, they will still be ranked top 2 and ahead of MSU. They can't move MSU ahead of Duke at this juncture.

As for Kansas, they did lose to an UNR Washington in Kansas City, Mo. I wouldn't be shocked if Kansas beat #16 ASU by a lot tonight. So I am going to assume they will and still be ranked ahead of us.

--------------------------

Now to US.

The issue is our OOC schedule is utter garbage. We've played nobody with a pulse with the exception of Minnesota.

After we beat Minnesota, they went on to lose two more games (@ Nebraska [7-4] and @ Arkansas [7-2]) this past week. Winning at Minnesota may be difficult but them losing two games on the road, each by double digits, isn't going to help their ranking or our win.

Minnesota might not be ranked after this past week.

As for our remaining OOC games, the only team with a pulse is/was USC. Then USC has lost three straight and doesn't look that good anymore. They also just lost Derryck Thornton for likely the remaining OOC games.

The point is we're not going to move too much simply because we beat a bunch of chit teams.

-----------

I have no doubt we should be ranked higher but much of our ranking is based on "potential" over our actual resume this year. I just don't expect to move up that far before the ACC schedule, even if we destroy everyone in that tourney.

[Below assumes Kansas wins tonight]

What the top 10 should be (IMO):

1. Nova
2. Duke
3. MSU
4. Kansas [Remember, they beat Kentucky]
5. WSU
6. Kentucky
7. Miami
8. UNC
9. Xavier
10. TAMpon
 
LoyalCane24 said:
One thing I like about NCAAM rankings is that they don't drop you a lot for stupid losses. It will be and should be:


1. Villanova
2. Duke(They beat Mich St by 8)
3. Michigan State
4. Kentucky
5. Wichita State
6. Kansas
7. Miami
8. UNC
9. Texas A&M
10. Xavier
Click to expand...

Given that Kentucky lost to Kansas, I don't think Kentucky should be ahead of Kansas at this juncture. If Kansas loses tonight, then I would have no problem with it.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Top 5 teams SHOULD be:

1. Villanova
2. Michigan State
3. Wichita State
4. Kentucky
5. Miami

The only wild card in that mix would be if Kansas has a big win over a ranked Arizona St team and stays in the Top 5.
Click to expand...

Unless Kansas loses tonight, they beat Kentucky in a neutral site. I don't see Kentucky ahead of Kansas unless Kansas loses again tonight.
 
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Again, these are all opinions, and it won't take long to figure out how it will shake out.

But the college rankings can absolutely put a team that lost head-to-head over a team that won head-to-head. College hoops rankings can be much more volatile than the football rankings.

As for Duke, I do not think that the BC loss will only cost them one spot. The loss to BC was particularly shocking, due to the disparity in the quality of the two teams.

But I certainly don't deny that if there are two teams that will not be punished as harshly as others for losing, it is bluebloods Duke and Kansas. And I agree that beating Michigan State and Kentucky will likely act as brakes on how far Duke and Kansas will fall.

If Kansas wins, they remain in the top 5, and if they lose again, I believe they will fall out of the Top 5. I think Duke should be just outside of the Top 5, but I could certainly see some voters keeping Duke ahead of Miami, but I could see how a Kansas win would make it unlikely to put Duke as low as 7 (assuming that a Kansas win would push Miami out of the Top 5).

I do believe that we will be in the 5-7 range, and it all depends on the Kansas game and whether voters think that Duke should be punished or forgiven for the BC loss. The recency of the BC loss could hurt Duke this time.
 
Kansas loses. Both Miami and FSU will be in the top 8. Lets be honest we have played 1 good team and it was a nice win on the road. But no one knows how good we are our schedule has been pathetic
 
CTCANE said:
Kansas loses. Both Miami and FSU will be in the top 8. Lets be honest we have played 1 good team and it was a nice win on the road. But no one knows how good we are our schedule has been pathetic
Click to expand...

Don't think FSU will be top 8. That UF win isn't looking as good with them having 3 losses now.
 
Consigliere said:
TOC,

Before I get to US, some other teams should be obviously moving down after recent events:

- UF (lost 3 straight games before beating #17 Cinn)
- TAMpon (lost a road game to UNR Arizona)
- Notre Dame (lost their second game to UNR Ball State)

As for Duke, they will still be ranked top 2 and ahead of MSU. They can't move MSU ahead of Duke at this juncture.

As for Kansas, they did lose to an UNR Washington in Kansas City, Mo. I wouldn't be shocked if Kansas beat #16 ASU by a lot tonight. So I am going to assume they will and still be ranked ahead of us.

--------------------------

Now to US.

The issue is our OOC schedule is utter garbage. We've played nobody with a pulse with the exception of Minnesota.

After we beat Minnesota, they went on to lose two more games (@ Nebraska [7-4] and @ Arkansas [7-2]) this past week. Winning at Minnesota may be difficult but them losing two games on the road, each by double digits, isn't going to help their ranking or our win.

Minnesota might not be ranked after this past week.

As for our remaining OOC games, the only team with a pulse is/was USC. Then USC has lost three straight and doesn't look that good anymore. They also just lost Derryck Thornton for likely the remaining OOC games.

The point is we're not going to move too much simply because we beat a bunch of chit teams.

-----------

I have no doubt we should be ranked higher but much of our ranking is based on "potential" over our actual resume this year. I just don't expect to move up that far before the ACC schedule, even if we destroy everyone in that tourney.

[Below assumes Kansas wins tonight]

What the top 10 should be (IMO):

1. Nova
2. Duke
3. MSU
4. Kansas [Remember, they beat Kentucky]
5. WSU
6. Kentucky
7. Miami
8. UNC
9. Xavier
10. TAMpon
Click to expand...
That's pretty close to CBS's analysis but they have Canes at 6.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 
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FSU not ranked in the AP poll so you're probably right. ASU might be ranked higher than is. Polls are fun to follow but dont really mean much.
 
Think we're no higher than #9 . These teams likely ahead of us: Mich St, Nova, Wichita St, Arizona St, Duke, TAMU, UNC and Gonzaga.
 
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Now that Kansas lost, I am revamping my prediction to the following:


1. Nova
2. Duke
3. MSU
4. WSU
5. Kentucky
6. Arizona State
7. Miami
8. UNC
9. Xavier
10. TAMpon
 
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This is the kind of thread you get when your team schedules a pre-conference schedule entirely of cream puffs and there isn't anything interesting to discuss.
 
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