Got it. So you think Mario is an exception to the trends that started over a decade ago where only he knows the best 3-stars and the other coaches around America/recruiting services are too stupid to realize their skill. You also had to include two portal guys who had already excelled at their previous stop, and because of their low star rating, ended up at Wazzu and Vanderbilt out of high school. It’s mathematically proven more blue chips = more wins and more NFL picks, but I guess this is the spin we’ll go with IF we don’t improve the class.
Holy delusion, enjoy your Friday.
No, I even put that he recruited Justin flowe and look where he’s at. It’s a crapshoot man. Kids look good on tape and that’s all I care about and I’m not losing any sleep over it.
A transfer portal evaluation is still an evaluation. And most transfer portal guys don’t pan out either.
I haven’t heard about Jacori Brooks in forever likely hurt but mostly MIA. And the other five star from last year that FSU landed hasn’t even seen the field.
Like I said, I agree with everybody on here that it’s great to get more five stars.
It would be one thing if I could see a huge difference in someone’s tape from a three star to a five star. But with some of the dudes that were recruiting I just don’t see it. Most of the time you do see it.
But I believe there’s a lot of conformational bias when you see a three star and then you look at the tape and you start asking about competition, how come nobody’s recruiting him, and we get all picky instead of just looking at the tape.
The problem with five stars is that they can only give out so many and the problem with three stars is they give a bunch of them like it’s water. So it’s hard to sift through crappy players and some will fall between the cracks and end up a hall of famer. Still doesn’t mean you can recruit only 3 stars and expect to only find diamonds.
There’s also frontrunner bias when somebody commits to a team like Alabama. Jeudy did not get a fifth star until he committed to Bama and the same thing with Jacori Brooks.
So a lot of these five stars were evaluated, and didn’t actually receive a fifth or even a 5th star until they committed to a certain team.
So yeah, I’ll bet my chances with an evaluation by Mario over an evaluation by Manny Diaz. Doesn’t mean he’s gonna be right all the time. And Saban isn’t right every time he gets a 5 star player either.
But he’s recruited so many that nobody gives a sht when he misses.
Also, there’s only 32 five stars each year and they’re not all in the same position. And they’re getting grabed up by all the top teams. So let’s say you take five teams that are gobbling up all the five stars and they spread out about five each. Not counting the occasional 5 star that goes to Mizzou for example.
Now you take into consideration the fact that there’s a 50% bust rate.
So about 2.5 guys out of your entire class that are a sure thing going to the NFL draft.
But that’s not the way they actually do it. Most of the time these teams are being successful cause you’re recruiting high-quality players, regardless of stars.
And the 3 stars get bumps when they commit to frontrunners.
We landed Bell who dropped to a 4 star when he committed.
I guarantee you that both Pruitt and Riley would Get huge bumps if they were committed to the home team.
So again, your right, more 5 stars is better. But in our situation I’m not worried (for now).
Nothing wrong with disagreeing. But you still can’t predict who’s gonna pan out even if they’re number one rated at their position and that was the original point of this conversation.
