The truth is, I’m not sure anyone can project what the committee will do this year with normal accuracy.
Below is my top 8 projection followed by D1's current top 8 projection, then followed by their final 2021 projection and 2021 NCAA top 8 field.
I don't think the D-1 projection is entirely accurate.
Looking at the D-1 2021 projection,
Notre Dame was not a top 8 team by the NCAA. In fact, they were the #10 seed rather than their #6 projection. What is glaring is their RPI of 54. That's the only reason I can see that the committee justified moving them from the top 8 despite going 25-10 winning the ACC regular season and 1-1 in the ACC tournament.
Texas Tech got the #8 seed with an RPI of 10 and a SOS of 15 despite going 14-10 in the Big 12 and going 1-2 in the Big 12 tournament.
For the the 2022 projection,
There is no way Maryland is a top 8 seed with a SOS of 109 despite winning the Big 10 (see ND 2021) which is nowhere close to the strength of the ACC.
I'm not comfortable that Miami is a #7 seed with an RPI of 17. Haven't seen a team in the top 8 with a double digit RPI.
Notre Dame could be ahead of Miami based on RPI and the fact the committee left them out of the top 8 last year.
Look out for Texas and Florida. The committee put a 14-10 Big 12 Texas Tech team in the top 8 despite going 1-2 in the Big 12 tournament.
Texas is 14-10 in the Big 12, but unlike the 2021 Texas Tech team, they are 4-1 in the Big 12 tournament and are playing for the Big 12 tournament title today. With a current RPI of 12 and SOS of 32, Texas could make the top 8 with a Big 12 conference tournament title.
East Carolina is also in the conversation for a top 8 seed. They have an RPI of 15 (ahead of Miami) and a SOS of 34. They are also playing for their conference title today. A win could elevate them to a top 8 seed depending on what the committee values most.
All the folks that said the ACC tournament doesn't matter are DEAD wrong!!! North Carolina is projected as the #11 team. They have vaulted themselves into hosting and perhaps a national top 8 seed with their ACC tournament play. They currently have an RPI of 4 and a SOS of 3. A win today pushes their ACC aggregate record to 19-15. I think they become a top 8 team. They could even jump Notre Dame and Miami winning the ACC tournament.
Florida has played its way to hosting. I believe they are also in the conversation for a top 8 seed if they beat Tennessee to with the SEC tournament. Currently, they have an RPI of 11 and a SOS of 11. Both would RPI and SOS would like be under 8 with a win against Tennessee.
Miami has really put itself in the top 8 pickle by not winning at least 1 game in the ACC tournament. Depending on what happens today and how the committee evaluates the teams, it's hard to say where UM will be. Could be anywhere from #6-#10.
In the projections below, the first "()" is the RPI and the second "()" is the SOS.
Number1CanesFan's Top 8 Projection
1. Tennessee (1)(43)
2. Stanford (3)(42)
3. Virginia Tech (5)(53)
4. Oregon State (2)(16)
5. Texas A&M (20)(22)
6. North Carolina (3)(4) - RPI and SOS are much stronger than Miami or ND despite getting swept by UM
7. Miami (17)(23) - Could move to #9 with Florida, Texas, and East Carolina winning
8. Texas (12)(32) - RPI and SOS will boost with a Big 12 tournament title win
9. Notre Dame (13)(54)
10. Florida (11)(11) - Florida loses to Tennessee. A win pushes Florida to #8
D-1 5-29-2022 Top 8 Projection
1. Tennessee (1)(43)
2. Stanford (3)(42)
3. Virginia Tech (5)(53)
4. Oregon State (2)(16)
5. Texas A&M (20)(22)
6. Maryland (9)(109)
7. Miami (17)(23)
8. Notre Dame (13)(54)
9. Texas (12)(32)
11. North Carolina (4)(3)
12. East Carolina (15)(34)
15. Florida (11)(11)
D-1 5-30-2021 Top 8 Projection
1. Arkansas (1)(1)
2. Tennessee (5)(24)
3. Texas (6)(22)
4. Vanderbilt (3)(16)
5. Arizona (9)(21)
6. Notre Dame (11)(54)
7. TCU (10)(15)
8. Mississippi State (7)(17)
NCAA 2021 Field
1. Arkansas (1)(1)
2. Texas (6)(22)
3. Tennessee (5)(24)
4. Vanderbilt (3)(16)
5. Arizona (9)(21)
6. TCU (10)(15)
7. Mississippi State (7)(17)
8. Texas Tech (10)(15)