22 point underdogs against FSU.

[Notsince1985]

In 97 there was a good reason we were 19.5 dogs and rightfully so.

No way we should be 22 point dogs.

The 1997 pointspread was higher than -19.5. It closed -22 in most joints but as high as -23 at others. I remember it extremely well because I had Florida State -13.5 and -14 courtesy of early "Marquee Matchup" numbers from Caesar's Palace a month earlier. On game day I had to decide whether to let it ride or partially play a 9 point middle. Fortunately I knew we were pathetic so I kept all of it.

The majority of numbers in that post above are accurate but a few are a bit off. The only one I noticed that was wrong by several points was 1997. I have pointspread records and stats dating to 1978, thanks to books I saved from Gamblers Bookclub in Las Vegas. Both major online sources -- Mrnfl.com and theGoldSheet.com -- list the 1997 spread as Florida State -22.

I agree that the feel is completely different. In 1997 we were in freefall and any deficit seemed possible. In this case it's not impossible we're very competitive if everything broke perfectly.

I got this straight from Tim Reynolds the AP writer. Not sure where he got it, but I'm assuming they are legit numbers.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

In 97 there was a good reason we were 19.5 dogs and rightfully so.

No way we should be 22 point dogs.

The 1997 pointspread was higher than -19.5. It closed -22 in most joints but as high as -23 at others. I remember it extremely well because I had Florida State -13.5 and -14 courtesy of early "Marquee Matchup" numbers from Caesar's Palace a month earlier. On game day I had to decide whether to let it ride or partially play a 9 point middle. Fortunately I knew we were pathetic so I kept all of it.

The majority of numbers in that post above are accurate but a few are a bit off. The only one I noticed that was wrong by several points was 1997. I have pointspread records and stats dating to 1978, thanks to books I saved from Gamblers Bookclub in Las Vegas. Both major online sources -- Mrnfl.com and theGoldSheet.com -- list the 1997 spread as Florida State -22.

I agree that the feel is completely different. In 1997 we were in freefall and any deficit seemed possible. In this case it's not impossible we're very competitive if everything broke perfectly.

I got this straight from Tim Reynolds the AP writer. Not sure where he got it, but I'm assuming they are legit numbers.

It's a very good list overall. Certainly much better than most versions I see online. I respect Reynolds. The Wikipedia page of the Miami vs. Florida rivalry had some ridiculous pointspread numbers a few months ago. Many were more than a touchdown off. I changed them.

I was betting full time in Las Vegas from the mid '80s through '08 so I remember the specific numbers and I also have them in Excel spreadsheets. I use the Gold Sheet line in my Excel spreadsheets. The numbers on the famous games like '87 and '91 are perfect. All the low numbers look just about right. The only one that caught my eye was '97, as I mentioned, because that number was in the low 20s all week. Caesar's Palace and Imperial Palace started putting up early numbers that year in August so my friends and I had tons of investments...games we were sure would move. Imperial Palace had much sharper adjustments than Caesar's, which would get stuck. Those Imperial Palace guys from the '90s -- Jay Kornegay and Ed Salmons, etc -- are now running Hilton (LVH), which might be the most respected book in town.

 

[Notsince1985]

In 97 there was a good reason we were 19.5 dogs and rightfully so.

No way we should be 22 point dogs.

The 1997 pointspread was higher than -19.5. It closed -22 in most joints but as high as -23 at others. I remember it extremely well because I had Florida State -13.5 and -14 courtesy of early "Marquee Matchup" numbers from Caesar's Palace a month earlier. On game day I had to decide whether to let it ride or partially play a 9 point middle. Fortunately I knew we were pathetic so I kept all of it.

The majority of numbers in that post above are accurate but a few are a bit off. The only one I noticed that was wrong by several points was 1997. I have pointspread records and stats dating to 1978, thanks to books I saved from Gamblers Bookclub in Las Vegas. Both major online sources -- Mrnfl.com and theGoldSheet.com -- list the 1997 spread as Florida State -22.

I agree that the feel is completely different. In 1997 we were in freefall and any deficit seemed possible. In this case it's not impossible we're very competitive if everything broke perfectly.

I got this straight from Tim Reynolds the AP writer. Not sure where he got it, but I'm assuming they are legit numbers.

It's a very good list overall. Certainly much better than most versions I see online. I respect Reynolds. The Wikipedia page of the Miami vs. Florida rivalry had some ridiculous pointspread numbers a few months ago. Many were more than a touchdown off. I changed them.

I was betting full time in Las Vegas from the mid '80s through '08 so I remember the specific numbers and I also have them in Excel spreadsheets. I use the Gold Sheet line in my Excel spreadsheets. The numbers on the famous games like '87 and '91 are perfect. All the low numbers look just about right. The only one that caught my eye was '97, as I mentioned, because that number was in the low 20s all week. Caesar's Palace and Imperial Palace started putting up early numbers that year in August so my friends and I had tons of investments...games we were sure would move. Imperial Palace had much sharper adjustments than Caesar's, which would get stuck. Those Imperial Palace guys from the '90s -- Jay Kornegay and Ed Salmons, etc -- are now running Hilton (LVH), which might be the most respected book in town.

I'm familiar with the Gold Sheet since the local ESPN Radio show here (Chattanooga) has the guy from the Gold Sheet (Bruce Marshall) on every Wednesday afternoon to talk the college football lines for the upcoming weekend.

 

[TricountyCane]

Phil Steele says we should loose by 4 touchdowns! Man. Boston college didn't loose by 4 touchdowns. I guess we must be pretty bad!

 

[AUcane]

****...FSU was a Td favorite in 03? We were undefeated going into that game.

That was after Gore got hurt and we barely escaped West Virginia as a huge favorite. The line changed dramatically in one week. We were slight favorites in the preseason lines and then became a touchdown underdog due to the overreaction.

That type of thing is not unheard of. Oklahoma in 1987 went from favorite to a 6 point underdog at Nebraska after Jamelle Holloway got hurt and was replaced by Charles Thompson. The Sooners won handily, very similar to our game in '03, relying on defense.

Yep, we were playing like dog **** before that. I remember thinking "how are we going to score on them?" Berlin was playing like crap, Payton was our starting RB, etc. Noles, otoh, were lighting it up before that game and Rix was playing pretty well.

 

[Notsince1985]

****...FSU was a Td favorite in 03? We were undefeated going into that game.

That was after Gore got hurt and we barely escaped West Virginia as a huge favorite. The line changed dramatically in one week. We were slight favorites in the preseason lines and then became a touchdown underdog due to the overreaction.

That type of thing is not unheard of. Oklahoma in 1987 went from favorite to a 6 point underdog at Nebraska after Jamelle Holloway got hurt and was replaced by Charles Thompson. The Sooners won handily, very similar to our game in '03, relying on defense.

Yep, we were playing like dog **** before that. I remember thinking "how are we going to score on them?" Berlin was playing like crap, Payton was our starting RB, etc. Noles, otoh, were lighting it up before that game and Rix was playing pretty well.

We played like crap on offense in that game too. I think Berlin threw 2-3 INTs, we had 2 or 3 other turnovers (5 overall), Parrish almost died, etc. Payton was the only guy on offense who showed up that day. That said, we still could have scored over 40 easily but we missed a chip shot FG, we settled for FGs inside their 10, we threw a couple of INTs inside their 20. FSU fans to this day say they gave the game to us with 5 turnovers, while ignoring the fact that we had 5 turnovers too.

 

[BigCaneAl]

****...FSU was a Td favorite in 03? We were undefeated going into that game.

That was after Gore got hurt and we barely escaped West Virginia as a huge favorite. The line changed dramatically in one week. We were slight favorites in the preseason lines and then became a touchdown underdog due to the overreaction.

That type of thing is not unheard of. Oklahoma in 1987 went from favorite to a 6 point underdog at Nebraska after Jamelle Holloway got hurt and was replaced by Charles Thompson. The Sooners won handily, very similar to our game in '03, relying on defense.

Yep, we were playing like dog **** before that. I remember thinking "how are we going to score on them?" Berlin was playing like crap, Payton was our starting RB, etc. Noles, otoh, were lighting it up before that game and Rix was playing pretty well.

We played like crap on offense in that game too. I think Berlin threw 2-3 INTs, we had 2 or 3 other turnovers (5 overall), Parrish almost died, etc. Payton was the only guy on offense who showed up that day. That said, we still could have scored over 40 easily but we missed a chip shot FG, we settled for FGs inside their 10, we threw a couple of INTs inside their 20. FSU fans to this day say they gave the game to us with 5 turnovers, while ignoring the fact that we had 5 turnovers too.

This has more of a 2002 feel, just reversed. FSU came in as big underdogs to the percieved juggernaut and actually almost pulled it out.

Awsi, you taking the points?

 

[Awsi Dooger]

****...FSU was a Td favorite in 03? We were undefeated going into that game.

That was after Gore got hurt and we barely escaped West Virginia as a huge favorite. The line changed dramatically in one week. We were slight favorites in the preseason lines and then became a touchdown underdog due to the overreaction.

That type of thing is not unheard of. Oklahoma in 1987 went from favorite to a 6 point underdog at Nebraska after Jamelle Holloway got hurt and was replaced by Charles Thompson. The Sooners won handily, very similar to our game in '03, relying on defense.

Yep, we were playing like dog **** before that. I remember thinking "how are we going to score on them?" Berlin was playing like crap, Payton was our starting RB, etc. Noles, otoh, were lighting it up before that game and Rix was playing pretty well.

We played like crap on offense in that game too. I think Berlin threw 2-3 INTs, we had 2 or 3 other turnovers (5 overall), Parrish almost died, etc. Payton was the only guy on offense who showed up that day. That said, we still could have scored over 40 easily but we missed a chip shot FG, we settled for FGs inside their 10, we threw a couple of INTs inside their 20. FSU fans to this day say they gave the game to us with 5 turnovers, while ignoring the fact that we had 5 turnovers too.

This has more of a 2002 feel, just reversed. FSU came in as big underdogs to the percieved juggernaut and actually almost pulled it out.

Awsi, you taking the points?

I haven't decided yet. It doesn't fit any of my most reliable systems.

2002 Florida State walked all over us on the ground, nearly 300 yards. That enabled the near upset. That's the angle I've been exploring this week -- how successful will Miami be on the ground? If it looks decent in the final analysis, I'll probably take the points for a small investment.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

In 97 there was a good reason we were 19.5 dogs and rightfully so.

No way we should be 22 point dogs.

The 1997 pointspread was higher than -19.5. It closed -22 in most joints but as high as -23 at others. I remember it extremely well because I had Florida State -13.5 and -14 courtesy of early "Marquee Matchup" numbers from Caesar's Palace a month earlier. On game day I had to decide whether to let it ride or partially play a 9 point middle. Fortunately I knew we were pathetic so I kept all of it.

The majority of numbers in that post above are accurate but a few are a bit off. The only one I noticed that was wrong by several points was 1997. I have pointspread records and stats dating to 1978, thanks to books I saved from Gamblers Bookclub in Las Vegas. Both major online sources -- Mrnfl.com and theGoldSheet.com -- list the 1997 spread as Florida State -22.

I agree that the feel is completely different. In 1997 we were in freefall and any deficit seemed possible. In this case it's not impossible we're very competitive if everything broke perfectly.

I got this straight from Tim Reynolds the AP writer. Not sure where he got it, but I'm assuming they are legit numbers.

It's a very good list overall. Certainly much better than most versions I see online. I respect Reynolds. The Wikipedia page of the Miami vs. Florida rivalry had some ridiculous pointspread numbers a few months ago. Many were more than a touchdown off. I changed them.

I was betting full time in Las Vegas from the mid '80s through '08 so I remember the specific numbers and I also have them in Excel spreadsheets. I use the Gold Sheet line in my Excel spreadsheets. The numbers on the famous games like '87 and '91 are perfect. All the low numbers look just about right. The only one that caught my eye was '97, as I mentioned, because that number was in the low 20s all week. Caesar's Palace and Imperial Palace started putting up early numbers that year in August so my friends and I had tons of investments...games we were sure would move. Imperial Palace had much sharper adjustments than Caesar's, which would get stuck. Those Imperial Palace guys from the '90s -- Jay Kornegay and Ed Salmons, etc -- are now running Hilton (LVH), which might be the most respected book in town.

I'm familiar with the Gold Sheet since the local ESPN Radio show here (Chattanooga) has the guy from the Gold Sheet (Bruce Marshall) on every Wednesday afternoon to talk the college football lines for the upcoming weekend.

Gold Sheet is considered the bible for historical pointspread information. I've contacted them several times and it's always been positive and generous. They also have archive information available for free on their website. I think it's GoldSheet.com, not TheGoldSheet.com as I posted yesterday. Under the specific sport the link is Historic Logs and Ratings. In college football their online archives go back to 1993.

 

[Notsince1985]

That was after Gore got hurt and we barely escaped West Virginia as a huge favorite. The line changed dramatically in one week. We were slight favorites in the preseason lines and then became a touchdown underdog due to the overreaction.

That type of thing is not unheard of. Oklahoma in 1987 went from favorite to a 6 point underdog at Nebraska after Jamelle Holloway got hurt and was replaced by Charles Thompson. The Sooners won handily, very similar to our game in '03, relying on defense.

Yep, we were playing like dog **** before that. I remember thinking "how are we going to score on them?" Berlin was playing like crap, Payton was our starting RB, etc. Noles, otoh, were lighting it up before that game and Rix was playing pretty well.

We played like crap on offense in that game too. I think Berlin threw 2-3 INTs, we had 2 or 3 other turnovers (5 overall), Parrish almost died, etc. Payton was the only guy on offense who showed up that day. That said, we still could have scored over 40 easily but we missed a chip shot FG, we settled for FGs inside their 10, we threw a couple of INTs inside their 20. FSU fans to this day say they gave the game to us with 5 turnovers, while ignoring the fact that we had 5 turnovers too.

This has more of a 2002 feel, just reversed. FSU came in as big underdogs to the percieved juggernaut and actually almost pulled it out.

Awsi, you taking the points?

I haven't decided yet. It doesn't fit any of my most reliable systems.

2002 Florida State walked all over us on the ground, nearly 300 yards. That enabled the near upset. That's the angle I've been exploring this week -- how successful will Miami be on the ground? If it looks decent in the final analysis, I'll probably take the points for a small investment.

I remember everyone getting on Shannon for being too "vanilla" and not creative with the defense in the 2002 game. Basically lined up with the safeties 15-20 yards off the line of scrimmage, the LBs 10 yards off and let FSU run the ball. We didn't run blitz, we didn't bring guys close to the LOS. We basically said, "you're not going to beat us deep" and we let them gash you all day long. Very frustrating, but also interesting to compare Shannon's "stuborness" as a DC to Coach D's. Shannon relied heavily on the fact that he had superior athletes and better football players, and didn't always play an overly aggressive style of defense. Everyone always thinks we were very aggressive since we had a lot of sacks and takeways, but in reality, we had so many because we were an NFL defense, not an overly aggressive scheme.

 

[chicanego]

SIAP, but some gold from Tim Reynolds this morning.

This guy's got an ego, but crown him here:

Tim Reynolds ‏@ByTimReynolds 10m
The way FSU fans strut on Twitter, you'd think their school has five national titles or something.

Tim Reynolds ‏@ByTimReynolds 20m
Ah, the trolls of @TomahawkNation ... Inventing crap since their moms put wireless in the basement.