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2018 MLB Draft Thread

Mark Little said:
You're absolutely wrong and it's obvious.

What's funny is that you clearly capitulated in the past because you knew this as well. But now you're trying to Google conventional definitions of random to save face.

Say that the 2016 Miami team played Bethune-Cookman in a 7 game series. Everybody knows that Miami was the better team. There's no dispute. So why wouldn't the probability of a Miami win be 100%?

Why would it be, say, 95% instead?

Because of random chance.

Because there's a small chance that the lesser team could stumble into 4 wins. A small probability but a probability nonetheless.

Nothing has a 0% probably except things that are physically impossible.
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So you've made up your own definition of random. Because there is no definition of random, conventional or otherwise, that conveys anything other than "equal chance of multiple outcomes".

You've also used "unpredictable" many times and now want to explain why many outcomes are predictable.

I'm just glad that you finally agree with me. The home team is supposed to win and has a better chance of winning, but in baseball the lesser team is expected to win a significant amount of the time, especially the deeper you get in the postseason. But not Miami. Just admit that our 0% winning percentage on the road is a black eye.
 
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Bethune Cookman will beat Miami once every nine or ten games because the nature of baseball makes it so that a great outing on the mound or a bad defensive inning can equalize the gap in talent. But that stuff isn't "random". Things don't happen by chance. They happen because college baseball players can compete with each other up through about 150 teams.

That being said, if Bethune Cookman can beat Miami 5% or 10% of the time, then Miami can certainly beat Florida twice in a regional. That's why your "who cares?" comment is so bizarre.
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
Because there is no definition of random, conventional or otherwise, that conveys anything other than "equal chance of multiple outcomes".
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Spectacularly wrong.

Embarrassingly wrong.

Please read a book about randomness and probability.

We can predict distributions of random events if we know their probability!
 
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Mark Little said:
We didn't have a 0% winning percentage on the road.

And an 8 game sample size over, what, 7 years is not that representative.
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Yes we did. You're mistakenly counting neutral site games. When we played on the road against the host team, we have not won since the 2006 Super Regional.

Here we go with sample size. A 12 year sample size is meaningless. But one game against Florida is entirely predictable.
 
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While he's looking that up, can anyone give us the list of times Miami defeated a team that had an equal or higher seed in the last 10 years?
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
That being said, if Bethune Cookman can beat Miami 5% or 10% of the time, then Miami can certainly beat Florida twice in a regional.
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Nobody disputed that they "can" do it. You're still having completely different arguments than everybody else. You struggle terribly with these concepts.

And Bethune-Cookman has never beaten Miami in the postseason. They're 0-4.

Based on your track record, this number should enrage you. You will now declare war on statistical probabilities.
 
Mark Little said:
Nobody disputed that they "can" do it. You're still having completely different arguments than everybody else. You struggle terribly with these concepts.

And Bethune-Cookman has never beaten Miami in the postseason. They're 0-4.

Based on your track record, this number should enrage you. You will now declare war on statistical probabilities.
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So if Miami "can" beat Florida in a winner takes all final game, shouldn't we care whether or not we win the 1-0 game in a regional?
 
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"Baseball is random!!!!"

I wish we would have won the winner's bracket game in 2011.

"Who cares? We weren't going to win the regional anyway!!!"

But I thought baseball was random.
 
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While Andrew Piccolo Aquinas continues to deflect from the real topic, here's a reminder:

Last ten years
Zero wins as the road team in the postseason
Zero wins against a #1 seed in the postseason
One win in Omaha
0-8 vs Florida in the postseason
Two regional titles
Two years of missing the postseason

But Jim Morris is phenomenal.
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
So you don't know what a non sequitur is either. I'm shocked.
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Yeah, your second statement does not follow the first.

What you're trying to do is refute the statement that road teams aren't supposed to win by saying that, well, 10 of them did this year.

But road teams aren't supposed to win. That's how tournaments are built, especially ones with home field advantage.

And if 10 teams do win, that doesn't render the first statement false.
 
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