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2/23 Bracketology

Bought tickets for the tournament games in Buffalo, like I do whenever there's games here. Would be so pumped if the Canes ended up here for the first round.
 
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It's weird that everyone has a hard for us to play Northwestern. I'd take that, as it would be their first ever appearance in the NCAAs.
 
I wanna get off that 8/9 line. Would rather be an 10/11 than a 8/9. Could definetly see us getting a 7 or better.
 
Was heading out for lunch today and had the the College Sports Network on the satellite radio... They were doing a preview of the game today and the host said something like...'...it's hard to believe that Miami is still firmly on the bubble...'' and that they needed the win today to secure their spot in the tourney...WTF?
 
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And in the daily..."this makes no sense" post. Ken Pom had UM at #28 yesterday. After the win against Duke...UM is now at #29 .
 
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Notsince1985 said:
We could win out, win the ACCT and be seeded behind UVa.
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It is so weird. When the new poll comes out tomorrow afternoon, there is an excellent chance that UM will be ranked ahead of UVa. Even after their impressive win over NCSt. yesterday...lol.

One of the sites that I like is Team Rankings. Even they have UVa as #6 seed, #22 overall, a 100% chance of making the Tourney, and a projected regular season record of 20-10.

With them UM is a #9 seed, #33 overall, 96% Tourney chance, and a 21-9 reg. season. Before the UVa game on Monday, they had UM at a 37% chance of making Tourney and 78% yesterday.
 
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Saw we are up to a 7-seed in Lunardi's bracketogy. But UVA still a 5 so I'm still angry.
 
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Scotty3173 said:
Notsince1985 said:
We could win out, win the ACCT and be seeded behind UVa.
Click to expand...

It is so weird. When the new poll comes out tomorrow afternoon, there is an excellent chance that UM will be ranked ahead of UVa. Even after their impressive win over NCSt. yesterday...lol.

One of the sites that I like is Team Rankings. Even they have UVa as #6 seed, #22 overall, a 100% chance of making the Tourney, and a projected regular season record of 20-10.

With them UM is a #9 seed, #33 overall, 96% Tourney chance, and a 21-9 reg. season. Before the UVa game on Monday, they had UM at a 37% chance of making Tourney and 78% yesterday.
Click to expand...

I might be wrong but I think team rankings is projections based. So they probably think we are dropping these last two road games. Which if that happens plus an early ACCT exit we will probably indeed be a 9 seed.
 
jnf2257 said:
Scotty3173 said:
Notsince1985 said:
We could win out, win the ACCT and be seeded behind UVa.
Click to expand...

It is so weird. When the new poll comes out tomorrow afternoon, there is an excellent chance that UM will be ranked ahead of UVa. Even after their impressive win over NCSt. yesterday...lol.

One of the sites that I like is Team Rankings. Even they have UVa as #6 seed, #22 overall, a 100% chance of making the Tourney, and a projected regular season record of 20-10.

With them UM is a #9 seed, #33 overall, 96% Tourney chance, and a 21-9 reg. season. Before the UVa game on Monday, they had UM at a 37% chance of making Tourney and 78% yesterday.
Click to expand...

I might be wrong but I think team rankings is projections based. So they probably think we are dropping these last two road games. Which if that happens plus an early ACCT exit we will probably indeed be a 9 seed.
Click to expand...

Yeah...they have us splitting the last two games. The same with UVa. They did not extrapolate out for the ACCT.

As someone else said...the Bracketologists are giving UVa credit for what they have done the past few years. They are obviously a good team and are Tourney worthy, but I honestly think that when given the eye test...UM is a better team at this point.
 
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Scotty3173 said:
jnf2257 said:
Scotty3173 said:
Notsince1985 said:
We could win out, win the ACCT and be seeded behind UVa.
Click to expand...

It is so weird. When the new poll comes out tomorrow afternoon, there is an excellent chance that UM will be ranked ahead of UVa. Even after their impressive win over NCSt. yesterday...lol.

One of the sites that I like is Team Rankings. Even they have UVa as #6 seed, #22 overall, a 100% chance of making the Tourney, and a projected regular season record of 20-10.

With them UM is a #9 seed, #33 overall, 96% Tourney chance, and a 21-9 reg. season. Before the UVa game on Monday, they had UM at a 37% chance of making Tourney and 78% yesterday.
Click to expand...

I might be wrong but I think team rankings is projections based. So they probably think we are dropping these last two road games. Which if that happens plus an early ACCT exit we will probably indeed be a 9 seed.
Click to expand...

Yeah...they have us splitting the last two games. The same with UVa. They did not extrapolate out for the ACCT.

As someone else said...the Bracketologists are giving UVa credit for what they have done the past few years. They are obviously a good team and are Tourney worthy, but I honestly think that when given the eye test...UM is a better team at this point.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%. We just proved it on the road as well without a significant contributer. It's insane UVA is three seed lines higher than us by some bracktologists
 
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The UVa one is the one ****ing me off the most. And not just because we beat them on the road.
 
jnf2257 said:
Saw we are up to a 7-seed in Lunardi's bracketogy. But UVA still a 5 so I'm still angry.
Click to expand...

Where did you see that? Everything that I see from Lunardi was last updated on 2/23 and he has us as an 8.

USA Today has UM as a #7 playing #10 Marquette.
 
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Notsince1985 said:
The UVa one is the one ****ing me off the most. And not just because we beat them on the road.
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The overhyped, overrated west coast teams are what drives me nuts. The one that really sticks out is St. Mary's... Ken Pom has them at #14 overall and Team Rankings has them as a #6 seed. Look at their schedule. They played no one...literally no one out of league. Dayton was the best team they played. Dayton from the A10 that has also played a weak schedule...#31 by Ken Pom.

I have no doubt that the selection committee will put the usual bias in place...and teams like SMC will be seeded in a better position over UM.
 
Notsince1985 said:
The UVa one is the one ****ing me off the most. And not just because we beat them on the road.
Click to expand...

We went through this last year when we were reviewing the voters score cards during the season.

Example #1 : We beat Utah, play in a harder conference, yet you had voters discount it (if they actually saw that we beat them) or ignore it and vote them (Utah) higher.

It will be interesting to see how things go from here. We should be ranked today (low 20s) and we certainly are moving in the right direction (whether they acknowledge it or not) during the important time of year.

I think Dorris Burke (sp?) said something interesting during the UVA game. UVA built up a lot of "equity" when they started the way they did. They also were ranked #8 in the pre-season after losing Brogdon, Gill and Tobey, which is/may be tough to explain. I think the combination of the "equity", voters not having much accountability and digging in their heels because of their starting votes are a dangerous combination. This combination explains what you see today.

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IMO, here are the 4 most possible results with the amount of games remaining (in no particular order).

Possibility #1 [2 More Wins]: If we can split our games this week, win the first game in the tourney, I think you're looking at a team with 5-7 seed (closer to 5).

Possibility #2 [0 More Wins]: If we don't win either of our final games, lose the game in the tourney, I think you're looking at a team with a 7-10 seed (closer to 9).

Possibility #3 [1 More Win]: If we don't win either of our final games, win the first game in the tourney, I think you're looking a team with a 6-9 seed (closer to 7).

Possibility #4 [3 More Wins]: If we can split our games this week, win the first two games in the tourney, I think you're looking a team with a 4-6 seed (closer to 4).
 
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