There's been some talk about expanding the recruiting board to a more national focus. Our board is already national at QB and TE, as it should be given the nature of those positions. But what about the rest of the board?
I went and looked at our classes from 2010 to 2015 to see how the South Florida recruits panned out vs. non-local recruits by position. Of course, the entire country has better players than just South Florida by sheer population. And Miami's classic teams all had a heavy OOS presence. But my theory was that Miami’s local recruits would be better over this period because (1) our record hurts us in recruiting big-time national kids; and (2) distance makes it tougher to evaluate national sleepers.
The results were predictable in spots and surprising in others. Note that I eliminated players who signed but did not enroll and did not include QB/TE (since we're already national there and have few local signees).
Over those six classes, we signed 68 kids from outside South Florida. 38% became starters at UM (10 or more starts) and 20% made the NFL. We signed 55 South Florida kids over the same time period. 51% became starters and 36% made the NFL. Here are the position breakdowns:
Running back
South Florida- 5 players, 60% starters, 40% NFL
Everywhere else- 5 players, 0% starters, 40% NFL
None of the national guys became starters, but Gus Edwards and Storm Johnson made it to the NFL. Duke Johnson, Mark Walton and Joe Yearby carried this group for South Florida.
Wide Receiver
South Florida- 8 players, 62.5% starters, 37.5% NFL
Everywhere else- 5 players, 60% starters, 40% NFL
The best players in this group (Hurns and Dorsett) were local, but Berrios was a great Cane from outside the state.
Offensive Line
South Florida- 10 players, 80% starters, 40% NFL
Everywhere else- 15 players, 40% starters, 6% NFL
This is where it gets interesting. The cliché is that South Florida OL are killing our unit. But the numbers say it’s the national guys. Even the numbers are deceptive, as some of the OOS starters (Hayden Mahoney, Jahair Jones) were pretty bad players.
Defensive Tackle
South Florida- 4 players, 25% starters, 25% NFL
Everywhere else- 13 players, 23% starters, 8% NFL
This group was ugly everywhere. The only good guy from South Florida was RJ McIntosh. The OOS guys were a parade of busts. The next generation of both South Florida DTs (Ford and Silvera) and OOS guys (the New York kids, Holley) need to perform. Willis wasn’t included as a transfer, but he was the best player of the bunch.
Defensive End
South Florida- 5 players, 20% starters, 20% NFL
Everywhere else- 7 players, 86% starters, 57% NFL
This was by far the best position for non-South Florida kids. Chickillo, AQM, Kamalu and Harris are all in the NFL. Chad is the only good player from South Florida. However, this list is skewed by having D’Onofrio’s recruits and not Manny’s. Notably, Joe Jackson, Jon Garvin and Greg Rousseau did not fall within the time period.
Linebacker
South Florida- 10 players, 30% starters, 30% NFL
Everywhere else- 12 players, 25% starters, 0% NFL
This one was a disaster. Even though we signed 12 guys outside of South Florida, not a single one of them was a good player. Only three of the South Florida guys (Perryman, Armbrister and Grace) were any good. Shaq and Pinckney (from Jacksonville) and McCloud and Brooks (from South Florida) will hopefully make this list look better.
Safety
South Florida- 5 players, 100% starters, 80% NFL
Everywhere else- 3 players, 66% starters, 33% NFL
Smallish sample but pretty clear results. The only quality non-local guy was Rayshawn Jenkins. The South Florida guys delivered, highlighted by the Killian duo and Deon Bush.
Cornerback
South Florida- 8 players, 25% starters, 25% NFL
Everywhere else- 8 players, 37.5% starters, 37.5% NFL
This position was a disgrace, especially considering that NFL players like Damon Arnette, Quincy Wilson and Reshad Fenton couldn’t get offers from Miami. The out-of-state guys were better, led by Corn Elder, Michael Jackson and Ladarius Gunter.
Overall, nothing too striking in either direction aside from the OL numbers. Maybe somebody with more time and less children can expand the sample to include more of the Shannon era. My opinion is that the South Florida numbers could be even better with some low-hanging fruit, and that will improve our team and allow us to recruit better OOS players.
I went and looked at our classes from 2010 to 2015 to see how the South Florida recruits panned out vs. non-local recruits by position. Of course, the entire country has better players than just South Florida by sheer population. And Miami's classic teams all had a heavy OOS presence. But my theory was that Miami’s local recruits would be better over this period because (1) our record hurts us in recruiting big-time national kids; and (2) distance makes it tougher to evaluate national sleepers.
The results were predictable in spots and surprising in others. Note that I eliminated players who signed but did not enroll and did not include QB/TE (since we're already national there and have few local signees).
Over those six classes, we signed 68 kids from outside South Florida. 38% became starters at UM (10 or more starts) and 20% made the NFL. We signed 55 South Florida kids over the same time period. 51% became starters and 36% made the NFL. Here are the position breakdowns:
Running back
South Florida- 5 players, 60% starters, 40% NFL
Everywhere else- 5 players, 0% starters, 40% NFL
None of the national guys became starters, but Gus Edwards and Storm Johnson made it to the NFL. Duke Johnson, Mark Walton and Joe Yearby carried this group for South Florida.
Wide Receiver
South Florida- 8 players, 62.5% starters, 37.5% NFL
Everywhere else- 5 players, 60% starters, 40% NFL
The best players in this group (Hurns and Dorsett) were local, but Berrios was a great Cane from outside the state.
Offensive Line
South Florida- 10 players, 80% starters, 40% NFL
Everywhere else- 15 players, 40% starters, 6% NFL
This is where it gets interesting. The cliché is that South Florida OL are killing our unit. But the numbers say it’s the national guys. Even the numbers are deceptive, as some of the OOS starters (Hayden Mahoney, Jahair Jones) were pretty bad players.
Defensive Tackle
South Florida- 4 players, 25% starters, 25% NFL
Everywhere else- 13 players, 23% starters, 8% NFL
This group was ugly everywhere. The only good guy from South Florida was RJ McIntosh. The OOS guys were a parade of busts. The next generation of both South Florida DTs (Ford and Silvera) and OOS guys (the New York kids, Holley) need to perform. Willis wasn’t included as a transfer, but he was the best player of the bunch.
Defensive End
South Florida- 5 players, 20% starters, 20% NFL
Everywhere else- 7 players, 86% starters, 57% NFL
This was by far the best position for non-South Florida kids. Chickillo, AQM, Kamalu and Harris are all in the NFL. Chad is the only good player from South Florida. However, this list is skewed by having D’Onofrio’s recruits and not Manny’s. Notably, Joe Jackson, Jon Garvin and Greg Rousseau did not fall within the time period.
Linebacker
South Florida- 10 players, 30% starters, 30% NFL
Everywhere else- 12 players, 25% starters, 0% NFL
This one was a disaster. Even though we signed 12 guys outside of South Florida, not a single one of them was a good player. Only three of the South Florida guys (Perryman, Armbrister and Grace) were any good. Shaq and Pinckney (from Jacksonville) and McCloud and Brooks (from South Florida) will hopefully make this list look better.
Safety
South Florida- 5 players, 100% starters, 80% NFL
Everywhere else- 3 players, 66% starters, 33% NFL
Smallish sample but pretty clear results. The only quality non-local guy was Rayshawn Jenkins. The South Florida guys delivered, highlighted by the Killian duo and Deon Bush.
Cornerback
South Florida- 8 players, 25% starters, 25% NFL
Everywhere else- 8 players, 37.5% starters, 37.5% NFL
This position was a disgrace, especially considering that NFL players like Damon Arnette, Quincy Wilson and Reshad Fenton couldn’t get offers from Miami. The out-of-state guys were better, led by Corn Elder, Michael Jackson and Ladarius Gunter.
Overall, nothing too striking in either direction aside from the OL numbers. Maybe somebody with more time and less children can expand the sample to include more of the Shannon era. My opinion is that the South Florida numbers could be even better with some low-hanging fruit, and that will improve our team and allow us to recruit better OOS players.
