Boom or bust? Top 10 QBs in the Portal Era ('19-'23)

DMoney said:

You always need to bring in high school arms. But you can't consistently pay both in the real world where money is limited. This is especially true if you aren't one of the Top 5 brands in the sport.

When resources are not infinite, it's important to look at the cold facts. And in this case, they tell a pretty clear story.

Search for affordable upside in high school. If one of them hits, pay him to stay. Otherwise, spend on more proven commodities.

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Calinative said:

Bro lives in fantasyland where money is printed off palm trees and there is never an opportunity cost to adding a player.

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cway313 said:

We ain't bros, you are a thot.

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Gi0logy said:

One thing I'd point out is how the COVID year gave players that extra eligibility, which flooded the Portal with experienced QBs over the last few years. But now we’re starting to see that inventory dry up. This is probably the first Portal cycle in a while where it’s been pretty d*mn noticeable.

Next year? It’s probably going to be even worse in terms of experienced QBs hitting the Portal that we'll deem good options.

So yeah, going the transfer route for QBs has been way more reliable historically, but it’s about to get a lot tougher, more expensive, and riskier. We really need to hit on one of Nickel, Coleman, or even Judd. If not, 2026/2027 is going to be reaaaaal scary.

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Canezum5 said:

I think this is being severely overlooked and has warped peoples expectation of the portal.

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Gi0logy said:

One thing I'd point out is how the COVID year gave players that extra eligibility, which flooded the Portal with experienced QBs over the last few years. But now we’re starting to see that inventory dry up. This is probably the first Portal cycle in a while where it’s been pretty d*mn noticeable.

Next year? It’s probably going to be even worse in terms of experienced QBs hitting the Portal that we'll deem good options.

So yeah, going the transfer route for QBs has been way more reliable historically, but it’s about to get a lot tougher, more expensive, and riskier. We really need to hit on one of Nickel, Coleman, or even Judd. If not, 2026/2027 is going to be reaaaaal scary.

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passitback said:

You may be right. Let's see how that pans out. Money talks, and if players can make more elsewhere, they will portal out.

I think if Beck shines, he'll get drafted. How high, no idea. But Cam definitely had an impact on him coming here. Call me crazy, but wo back-to-back seasons with a transfer QB that gets drafted (hopefully very high) will help us attract the best QBs available. Not a fool proof plan, but it's been working out for us so far.

Lots riding on this season.

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cway313 said:

Sounds like you have already seen the future.

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cway313 said:

Sounds like you have already seen the future.

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caneforlifeforreal said:

It sounds like you ran out of thoughtful contributions to the conversation after HC movement, which was good. But you're just throwing snarky comments out. You might be a intelligent individual. Just when we think you might be . . Ouch. Just stop acting like an *******

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cway313 said:

If you read the post he attributed success to the staff that hasn't transpired. Or did I miss Beck already getting drafted? Sometimes maybe it's OK to stfu.

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Gi0logy said:

One thing I'd point out is how the COVID year gave players that extra eligibility, which flooded the Portal with experienced QBs over the last few years. But now we’re starting to see that inventory dry up. This is probably the first Portal cycle in a while where it’s been pretty d*mn noticeable.

Next year? It’s probably going to be even worse in terms of experienced QBs hitting the Portal that we'll deem good options.

So yeah, going the transfer route for QBs has been way more reliable historically, but it’s about to get a lot tougher, more expensive, and riskier. We really need to hit on one of Nickel, Coleman, or even Judd. If not, 2026/2027 is going to be reaaaaal scary.

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Memnon said:

Unless you have a sure-fire future All-Conference & NFL 1st rounder that you're recruiting outta HS, you pretty much don't have a choice but to get a Portal QB.

I mean, the fxkin National Champions & the National Champion runner-ups had no choice but to get Portal QB's for the season. And both those programs pretty much have an unlimited War-Chest.

You can depend on HS recruiting if you want to at QB, you'll fxck around & find out left floating out there in mediocreland in the middle of nowheresville like Michigan, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arizona & Utah had to realize this season.

In in today's era of CFB, everything has been expedited. All of the processes are sped up, which means, you don't get an infinite amount of time to show something. This is the "Win Now" era of CFB, & in the Win Now era, you need ready-made QB play. The only place to get that is the Portal.

You either have to start a TF or get a Portal vet. If you're lucky enough to have a Red FR/Sophomore that can be handed the reigns after a one year rental, you better hope that kid can play, or else the heat will be on & you'll be back to square one, shopping the Portal market.

If your HS QB recruit ain't a special arm talent with NFL upside, you're wasting both yours & his time.

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DMoney said:

We've seen the debate all over the forums- is it better to recruit QBs in high school or through the Portal?

Most agree you need both. But in terms of resource allocation, staffs often grapple between spending big in the Portal (with the benefit of college tape) or bidding on elite high school quarterbacks (who offer upside and years of production).

I went back to the first cycle of the Portal (2019) and compiled the Top 10 QBs over a five-year period. For the rankings, I used the 247 Composite score. Some of these players are still playing, so the stats are not complete in some cases. Below is what I found, with transfers in BOLD:

2019

1. Spencer Rattler

STATS: 10,807 yards (8.2 YPA), 77 TDs, 32 INTs, 16 rushing TDs
DRAFT: 5th Round Pick
SCHOOLS: Oklahoma, South Carolina

2. Bo Nix

STATS: 15,351 yards (7.9 YPA), 113 TDs, 26 INTs, 38 rushing TDs
DRAFT: 1st round pick
SCHOOLS: Auburn, Oregon

3. Jayden Daniels

STATS: 12,749 yards (8.9 YPA), 89 TDs, 20 INTs, 34 rushing TDs
DRAFT: 1st round pick
SCHOOLS: Arizona State, LSU

4. Ryan Hilinksi

STATS: 5,222 yards (6.0 YPA), 21 TDs, 17 INTs, 4 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Undrafted
SCHOOLS: South Carolina, Northwestern

5. Graham Mertz

STATS: 9,099 yards (7.4 YPA), 64 TDs, 31 INTs, 13 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Draft-eligible this year, not invited to combine
SCHOOLS: Wisconsin, Florida

6. Sam Howell

STATS: 10,283 yards (9.2 YPA), 92 TDs, 23 INTs, 17 rushing TDs
DRAFT: 5th round pick
SCHOOL: UNC

7. Dylan Morris

STATS: 3,727 yards (7.4 YPA), 20 TDs, 17 INTs, 5 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Undrafted
SCHOOLS: Washington, James Madison

8. Taulia Tagavailoa

STATS: 11,356 yards (7.9 YPA), 77 TDs, 37 INTs, 13 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Undrafted
SCHOOLS: Alabama, Maryland

9. Max Duggan

STATS: 9,618 yards (7.9 YPA), 73 TDs, 28 INTs, 28 rushing TDs
DRAFT: 7th round pick
SCHOOL: TCU

10. Taisun Phommachanh

STATS: 3,314 yards (6.4 YPA), 15 TDs, 16 INTs, 8 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Undrafted
SCHOOLS: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Massachusetts

2020

1. Bryce Young

STATS: 8,356 yards (8.8 YPA), 80 TDs, 12 INTs, 7 rushing TDs
DRAFT: First Round
SCHOOL: Alabama

2. DJ Uiagalelei

STATS: 9,384 yards (7.0 YPA), 61 TDs, 30 INTs, 20 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Not invited to the combine
SCHOOLS: Clemson, Oregon State, Florida State

3. CJ Stroud

STATS: 8,123 yards (9.8 YPA), 85 TDS, 12 INTs, 1 rushing TD
DRAFT: First Round pick
SCHOOL: Ohio State

4. Hudson Card

STATS: 5,551 yards (6.9 YPA), 35 TDs, 17 INTs, 6 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Not invited to the combine
SCHOOLS: Texas, Purdue

5. Ja’Quinden Jackson

STATS: Converted to RB, 2,148 yards, 5.5 YPC, 29 TDs
DRAFT: Draftable grade as RB
SCHOOLS: Texas, Utah, Arkansas

6. Luke Doty

STATS: Converted to WR, 140 receiving yards, 1 TD
SCHOOL: South Carolina

8. Harrison Bailey

STATS: 1,190 yards (7 YPA), 10 TDs, 3 INTs, 2 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Tennessee, UNLV, Louisville, Florida

8. Ethan Garbers

STATS: 4,462 yards (7.5 YPA), 31 TDs, 18 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Not invited to combine
SCHOOLS: Washington, UCLA

9. Haynes King

STATS: 6,535 yards (7.6 YPA), 51 TDs, 28 INTs, 22 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Texas A&M, Georgia Tech

10. Jay Butterfield

STATS: 103 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs
DRAFT: Out of football
SCHOOLS: Oregon, San Jose State

2021

1. Quinn Ewers

STATS: 9,128 yards (8.0 YPA), 68 TDs, 24 INTs, 8 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Will be drafted
SCHOOLS: Ohio State, Texas

2. Caleb Williams

STATS: 10,082 yards (9.2 YPA), 93 TDs, 14 INTs
DRAFT: First round pick
SCHOOLS: Oklahoma, USC

3. Sam Huard

STATS: 265 yards (6.0 YPA), 1 TD, 4 INTs
SCHOOLS: Washington, Utah, USC

4. Brock Vandagriff

STATS: 1,758 yards (7.4 YPA), 12 TDs, 8 INTs
DRAFT: Out of football
SCHOOLS: Georgia, Kentucy

5. JJ McCarthy

STATS: 6,226 yards (8.7 YPA), 49 TDs, 11 INTs, 10 rushing TDs
DRAFT: First round pick
SCHOOL: Michigan

6. Kyle McCord

STATS: 8,555 yards (8.6 YPA), 61 TDs, 20 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Will be drafted
SCHOOLS: Ohio State, Syracuse

7. Ty Thompson

STATS: 655 yards (6.2 YPA), 9 TDs, 7 INTs, 6 rushing TDs, Switched positions to tight end
SCHOOLS: Oregon, Tulane

8. Jake Garcia

STATS: 2,376 yards (7.7 YPA), 15 TDs, 16 INTs, 2 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Miami, East Carolina

9. Drake Maye

STATS: 8,018 yards (8.4 YPA), 63 TDs, 16 INTs, 16 rushing TDs
DRAFT: First round pick
SCHOOL: North Carolina

10. Jaxson Dart

STATS: 11,970 yards (9.2 YPA), 81 TDs, 27 INTs, 14 rushing TDs
DRAFT: Will be drafted
SCHOOLS: USC, Ole Miss

2022

1. Cade Klubnick

STATS: 7,180 yards (6.9 YPA), 57 TDs, 18 INTs, 13 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Clemson

2. Conner Weigman

STATS: 2,694 yards (7.4 YPA), 19 TDs, 7 INTs, 2 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Texas A&M, Houston

3. Ty Simpson

STATS: 381 yards (7.6 YPA), 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Alabama

4. Drew Allar

STATS: 6,302 yards (7.5 YPA), 53 TDs, 10 INTs, 11 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Penn State

5. Walker Howard

STATS: 63 yards (6.3 YPA), 0 TDs, 0 INTs
SCHOOLS: LSU, Ole Miss, Louisiana Lafayette

6. Devin Brown

STATS: 331 yards (6.9 YPA), 3 TDs, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD
SCHOOLS: Ohio State, California

7. Gunner Stockton

STATS: 588 yards (7.1 YPA), 3 TDs, 2 INTs
SCHOOL: Georgia

8. Sam Horn

STATS: 54 yards (6.8 YPA), 1 TD, 1 INT
SCHOOL: Missouri

9. Nick Evers

STATS: 918 yards (5.1 YPA), 5 TDs, 5 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Connecticut

10. Brady Allen

STATS: 15 yards (3.8 YPA), 0 TDs, 0 INTs
SCHOOLS: Purdue, Louisville

2023

1. Arch Manning

STATS: 969 yards (10.2 YPA), 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 4 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Texas

2. Nico Iamaleava

STATS: 2,930 yards (7.7 YPA), 21 TDs, 5 INTs, 6 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Tennessee

3. Dante Moore

STATS: 1,659 yards (7.5 YPA), 11 TDs, 9 INTs
SCHOOLS: UCLA, Oregon

4. Jackson Arnold

STATS: 1,984 yards (6.3 YPA), 16 TDs, 6 INTs, 4 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Oklahoma, Auburn

5. Malachi Nelson

STATS: 128 yards (6.4 YPA), 0 TDs, 1 INTs
SCHOOLS: USC, Boise State, UTEP

6. Christopher Vizzina

STATS: 34 yards (5.6 YPA, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
SCHOOL: Clemson

7. Jaden Rashada

STATS: 485 yards (5.9 YPA), 4 TDs, 3 INTs
SCHOOLS: Florida, Arizona State, Georgia, Currently in Portal

8. Eli Holstein

STATS: 2,228 yards (7.7 YPA), 17 TDs, 7 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
SCHOOLS: Alabama, Pittsburgh

9. Avery Johnson

STATS: 3,191 yards (7.3 YPA), 30 TDs, 10 INTs, 14 rushing TDs
SCHOOL: Kansas State

10. Austin Novosad

STATS: 59 yards (4.5 YPA), 0 TDs, 0 INTs
SCHOOL: Oregon

TAKEAWAYS

They're likely to hit the Portal

Most Top 10 quarterbacks don't work out for the team that signs them. Of the 50 quarterbacks in this study, 33 of them (66%) jumped in the Portal.

More may join them in the '22 and '23 classes. Of the 17 who stayed, five have yet to play meaningful snaps. So that leaves about 24% who developed into permanent starters for the team that signed them.

The cream of the crop projects differently

From an evaluation standpoint, there was a significant difference between Top 3 quarterbacks and the quarterbacks ranked 4-10.

Of the nine Top 3 quarterbacks who have completed four years, seven (78%) of them have been drafted. Five of the nine (56%) were first rounders.

However, the Top 3 recruits didn't all work out at their first stop. Of the seven drafted, five (71%) transferred before getting to the NFL.

The lower seven had significantly less success. Of the 21 quarterbacks who completed four years of college and ranked outside of the Top 3, only 4 (19%) got drafted.

For purposes of this analysis, I'm projecting Quinn Ewers as getting drafted on Day 2 or 3.

CONCLUSION

My big takeaway: if you're going to spend on a top high school QB, he should be in the Top 3. Don't get into bidding wars for the other guys. And even then, you need a plan to make sure that Top 3 QB doesn't collect big checks and hop in the Portal before producing. The Top 3 QBs are also attractive Portal candidates, even if they had ups and downs at their prior stops (see Daniels and Nix). The talent is usually there.

While the odds are against a top high school QB starting long-term for the team he signs with, the ones that do stay have a ton of success. Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Max Duggan, Sam Howell, Drake Maye, JJ McCarthy, Cade Klubnick and Drew Allar are prime examples. But of course, there is selection bias- the guys that stay are much more likely to have succeeded early.

Overall, I think we should allocate most of our QB money to the Portal or retaining young starters. High schoolers are too volatile. Of the Top 10 QBs in the 2025 NFL Draft per CBS, nine of them are transfers. You have a better idea of what you're going to get and how they fit into your system. Get affordable players with traits out of high school, and if they hit, then you pay them.

Comment below with your strategy for attacking the QB position.

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