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Will Smith Coastal Carolina

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Will Smith Amateur & College Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

Will Smith Amateur & College Leagues Statistics including batting, fielding, prospect rankings and more on Baseball-Reference.com
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Gotta hope this isn't indicative of the type of player we will focus on.

*** cheek era numbers. Nice whip and strikeout numbers last season tho. It's fine for a back end of the pen type of pickup. But we need to do better.
 
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I guess when JD said it matters on the type of player, not the ranking of the player he meant it
 
bullpen arm… guessing we see something we can try and clean up?

Still no big difference makers…
 
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This is a nice add. If you look under the hood a bit with his numbers, there are good markers.

SIERA is the best metric we currently to predict future success and he had an elite 2.01 mark this year.

The next best metric to predicting future success is honestly K%-BB%, again he excels here at 26.9%. (Keep in mind if you tried to combine them into one metric you’d overfit your model because SIERA already uses this in its prediction)

He allows fly balls a bit more than you’d like, but does a nice job suppressing line drives and getting a decent amount of ground balls.

His big issue is that he saw 31.6% of his fly balls leave the yard. To put it into context, that’s almost an impossible number. That number has pretty much zero chance of being repeated. If you’re regressing this number, you’d expect it to be ~12% next year, which would make a nice difference.

He will always allow a few home runs because he’s a fly ball pitcher, but a guy who K’s well over 30% of hitters and keeps walks in check with his HR’s per fly ball regressed to a more normal level is a guy who probably gives you a mid-3’s ERA.
 
Lance Roffers said:
This is a nice add. If you look under the hood a bit with his numbers, there are good markers.

SIERA is the best metric we currently to predict future success and he had an elite 2.01 mark this year.

The next best metric to predicting future success is honestly K%-BB%, again he excels here at 26.9%. (Keep in mind if you tried to combine them into one metric you’d overfit your model because SIERA already uses this in its prediction)

He allows fly balls a bit more than you’d like, but does a nice job suppressing line drives and getting a decent amount of ground balls.

His big issue is that he saw 31.6% of his fly balls leave the yard. To put it into context, that’s almost an impossible number. That number has pretty much zero chance of being repeated. If you’re regressing this number, you’d expect it to be ~12% next year, which would make a nice difference.

He will always allow a few home runs because he’s a fly ball pitcher, but a guy who K’s well over 30% of hitters and keeps walks in check with his HR’s per fly ball regressed to a more normal level is a guy who probably gives you a mid-3’s ERA.
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Sounds like he could be of some help to us. I'm guessing he's probably low 90s at best.
 
Lance Roffers said:
This is a nice add. If you look under the hood a bit with his numbers, there are good markers.

SIERA is the best metric we currently to predict future success and he had an elite 2.01 mark this year.

The next best metric to predicting future success is honestly K%-BB%, again he excels here at 26.9%. (Keep in mind if you tried to combine them into one metric you’d overfit your model because SIERA already uses this in its prediction)

He allows fly balls a bit more than you’d like, but does a nice job suppressing line drives and getting a decent amount of ground balls.

His big issue is that he saw 31.6% of his fly balls leave the yard. To put it into context, that’s almost an impossible number. That number has pretty much zero chance of being repeated. If you’re regressing this number, you’d expect it to be ~12% next year, which would make a nice difference.

He will always allow a few home runs because he’s a fly ball pitcher, but a guy who K’s well over 30% of hitters and keeps walks in check with his HR’s per fly ball regressed to a more normal level is a guy who probably gives you a mid-3’s ERA.
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I love your analysis Lance, thank you
 
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Lance Roffers said:
This is a nice add. If you look under the hood a bit with his numbers, there are good markers.

SIERA is the best metric we currently to predict future success and he had an elite 2.01 mark this year.

The next best metric to predicting future success is honestly K%-BB%, again he excels here at 26.9%. (Keep in mind if you tried to combine them into one metric you’d overfit your model because SIERA already uses this in its prediction)

He allows fly balls a bit more than you’d like, but does a nice job suppressing line drives and getting a decent amount of ground balls.

His big issue is that he saw 31.6% of his fly balls leave the yard. To put it into context, that’s almost an impossible number. That number has pretty much zero chance of being repeated. If you’re regressing this number, you’d expect it to be ~12% next year, which would make a nice difference.

He will always allow a few home runs because he’s a fly ball pitcher, but a guy who K’s well over 30% of hitters and keeps walks in check with his HR’s per fly ball regressed to a more normal level is a guy who probably gives you a mid-3’s ERA.
Click to expand...

This right here; he’s going to give u some good (27 Ks in only 19.1 IP), but he has an ungodly HR9 at 2.8. ****, even Crowther & Chestnutt wasn’t anywhere near a 2.8 HR9 & they were terrible last season.

He also has a little control issue w/ hitting 6 in only 19 innings. So, we’re going to have to refine & hone in on what the solid tools he does possess, & help minimize the flaws.
 
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Sure the kid isn’t gonna be an All American, but we got much bigger problems to worry about than a guy who has proven he can get a bunch of outs at the D1 level.

He’s better than everybody we got except for end of the year Caba and Robert.
 
Talked to some people that are familiar with CC baseball. Said he had labrum repair back in 2020 and continues to get better every year and likely still has room to get better not even considering statistically as he’s had bad luck. Room for his stuff to improve. Somewhat of a deceptive delivery with a fastball that jumps out of a hidden arm slot that makes him hard to hit.

Recovery on those is always long. Lot more ups and downs in the process too.
 
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