- Joined
- Oct 21, 2023
- Messages
- 4
Will Smith RHP from Costal Carolina just committed.
This, like Marsh, would be an ask me in a month what I think kind of pickup. It could be a useful role piece, but you've got to do some heavy lifting with your other signings to make it meaningful.That would be sad. Ranked #834 in the portal. Crowther and Chris Diaz are ranked higher than him.
Sounds like he could be of some help to us. I'm guessing he's probably low 90s at best.This is a nice add. If you look under the hood a bit with his numbers, there are good markers.
SIERA is the best metric we currently to predict future success and he had an elite 2.01 mark this year.
The next best metric to predicting future success is honestly K%-BB%, again he excels here at 26.9%. (Keep in mind if you tried to combine them into one metric you’d overfit your model because SIERA already uses this in its prediction)
He allows fly balls a bit more than you’d like, but does a nice job suppressing line drives and getting a decent amount of ground balls.
His big issue is that he saw 31.6% of his fly balls leave the yard. To put it into context, that’s almost an impossible number. That number has pretty much zero chance of being repeated. If you’re regressing this number, you’d expect it to be ~12% next year, which would make a nice difference.
He will always allow a few home runs because he’s a fly ball pitcher, but a guy who K’s well over 30% of hitters and keeps walks in check with his HR’s per fly ball regressed to a more normal level is a guy who probably gives you a mid-3’s ERA.
I love your analysis Lance, thank youThis is a nice add. If you look under the hood a bit with his numbers, there are good markers.
SIERA is the best metric we currently to predict future success and he had an elite 2.01 mark this year.
The next best metric to predicting future success is honestly K%-BB%, again he excels here at 26.9%. (Keep in mind if you tried to combine them into one metric you’d overfit your model because SIERA already uses this in its prediction)
He allows fly balls a bit more than you’d like, but does a nice job suppressing line drives and getting a decent amount of ground balls.
His big issue is that he saw 31.6% of his fly balls leave the yard. To put it into context, that’s almost an impossible number. That number has pretty much zero chance of being repeated. If you’re regressing this number, you’d expect it to be ~12% next year, which would make a nice difference.
He will always allow a few home runs because he’s a fly ball pitcher, but a guy who K’s well over 30% of hitters and keeps walks in check with his HR’s per fly ball regressed to a more normal level is a guy who probably gives you a mid-3’s ERA.
This is a nice add. If you look under the hood a bit with his numbers, there are good markers.
SIERA is the best metric we currently to predict future success and he had an elite 2.01 mark this year.
The next best metric to predicting future success is honestly K%-BB%, again he excels here at 26.9%. (Keep in mind if you tried to combine them into one metric you’d overfit your model because SIERA already uses this in its prediction)
He allows fly balls a bit more than you’d like, but does a nice job suppressing line drives and getting a decent amount of ground balls.
His big issue is that he saw 31.6% of his fly balls leave the yard. To put it into context, that’s almost an impossible number. That number has pretty much zero chance of being repeated. If you’re regressing this number, you’d expect it to be ~12% next year, which would make a nice difference.
He will always allow a few home runs because he’s a fly ball pitcher, but a guy who K’s well over 30% of hitters and keeps walks in check with his HR’s per fly ball regressed to a more normal level is a guy who probably gives you a mid-3’s ERA.
we need bodies and filler. He seems a little better than the filler we hadNot a big fan of this guy. Sorry, but I'm not optimistic at all about Miami baseball right now.