Why stars DO matter.

[jhtheking]

Literally nobody is saying stars don't matter.

It is a fact there are huge numbers of diamonds in the rough every **** year. If a staff is **** good at finding those kids than they are gonna win a **** of a lot games.

Both of those things are facts and everyone knows it.

What is the OP even arguing?

Literally you didn't read this entire thread.

 

[ShadowSpring]

Huge variable..... coaching....

give golden all 5 stars and give saban all 3 stars....

I bet saban wins

I bet Golden wins.

LARRY COKER won a natty while Nick Saban was going 7-6 at Michigan State with a roster full of 3-stars. Think about that.

Coker won a title with a team that had 19 fist round nfl picks on it. Nineteen!

Not all 19 were 4* & 5*

That 2000-2002 squad was full of 3* kids absolutely ballin and dominating teams full of 5* bluechip players. There was also 5* players doing what they should do.

Butch was amazing at talent evaluation. He took kids he thought were great not kids that had more stars. He didn't think stars next to a kids name had magical powers and endowed certain kids balla status.

 

[Dghustla]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

Yes, the system tends to get it right at the end of the day. But ‘at the end of the day’ means by signing day. It’s a hindsight rating come Feb. the kids who got chased the most by the best programs get up-rated. Makes sense. Ends up being right. Doesn’t tell you much at all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier, however. Which is when the top kids get recruited.

If UM becomes relevant agan, the kids we recruit will get ratings bumps. Our classes will ‘improve’ on paper. Coker recruits got ratings bumps long after Miami fans realized Coker was a dumpster fire. High ratings didn’t help in ‘04 and ‘08 because Coker and Shannon were bad to middling evaluators.

Richt needs to keep the best local kids home, first and foremost. Do that and we’ll be fine, whatever the ratings gurus say about those kids. Fail to do it and we won’t be fine, no matter how many rhyan andersons we pull from other parts of the country.

The 08 class wasn't as good on paper as it first looks. He filled the class with far too many 2 and 3 stars in addition to the several 4 and 5 stars.

But recruiting rankings have also improved since then. If the numbers in this thread are correct 74% of 5 stars drafted is a vast improvement even from 6 years ago. I remember reading a rivals article back then saying about 55% of 5 stars were drafted.

There may be a recruiting bump when a good school offers, but if it wasn't accurate then these numbers wouldn't look this good. In the past we've lost a lot of the big recruiting battles.

My point is that saying stars matter doesn't miss the point. From a coaching perspective, yes they shouldn't just offer people with 4+ stars for no reason. We aren't the coaches. We analyze how we're progressing, and with Richt everything looks great. Recruiting isn't all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier. I would imagine we recruit a TON of kids based on their potential. I doubt Golden was refusing to recruit some of the best players in south florida when they were younger. He just couldn't compete with other coaches and we ended up with kids that weren't as highly rated. In this day and age there should never be someone that says all of our 3 stars are under the radar. Maybe a few of them are, but filling a class with 18 three stars and claiming it's a good class because the coaches are good evaluators is dubious.

That drafted stat is skewed there are way more 3 stars than 5 stars therefore of course a lessor % of them will get
Drafted. As we’ve seen with this star system continuing to evolve that once a player is annointed as 5 Star ppl use confimirmation bias to fill in the gaps and keep the hype on them going. Ray ray Armstrong is a perfect example he had middling stats and was annointed a Freshman AA he rode that one hit vs OU all the way to the NFL. Jadevon clowney perfect example dude was lazy, had no motor, no cardio, no dog in him. His stats for an “all world” player were terrible. He made a couple of hits in college and for everything else there was an excuse. “He was possibly playng hurt”, “he was saving himself for the NFL”, “he’ll Be movitcated When he gets $$.” I think I even heard Lugninbill say “he was bored with colleg”..then what happened he’s been trash for a top pick. This is his best season and it’s still only ok.

If having high rated kids is all it takes then Bama and St. Nick shouldn’t have been nervous when their Lbs started getting injuries. But they were becuase they know that those players behind the starters regardless of ratings aren’t developed yet or never will.

Think of it as an assembly line: Develop>Win> Recrurit>Repeat
Of course the better you recrut theroically the better product you start with.

That makes no sense. Since there are way more 3 stars then more 3 stars should be drafted if they were equally as good as 5 stars. And even your anecdotal evidence is wrong. Ray Ray wasn't drafted.. not going to explain it further though because you somehow can't comprehend this simple analysis.

Don’t get your panties in a bunch. As it says in my post and your post we are talking %. Not sheer volume. That means the fact here are more 3 stars gives them a lower probability of holding a high average.

I never said Ray Ray was drafted I simply said he rode his Freshman season to the

Simple question: if Lingard was rated a 3 Star do you think the coaches wouldn’t have pursued him? No

 

[da truth]

Wisconsin. 1 loss, primarily all 3stars also vt is mostly 3stars. F u star whores, 3* Michael Jackson says hello

Do you understand how that argument means nothing? You're the type of guy to buy 100 lottery tickets every week because you know someone that won it once, or the guy that won't vaccinate his kids because you know of one person who has a child with autism that was vaccinated. If you actually look at all of the data, the sentiment of this thread holds true. You won't be able to understand this though so I'm not going to try anymore. Some people just can't make analytical conclusions. You're one of them.

Infowars

 

[jhtheking]

Wisconsin. 1 loss, primarily all 3stars also vt is mostly 3stars. F u star whores, 3* Michael Jackson says hello

Do you understand how that argument means nothing? You're the type of guy to buy 100 lottery tickets every week because you know someone that won it once, or the guy that won't vaccinate his kids because you know of one person who has a child with autism that was vaccinated. If you actually look at all of the data, the sentiment of this thread holds true. You won't be able to understand this though so I'm not going to try anymore. Some people just can't make analytical conclusions. You're one of them.

Infowars

Huh? Infowars are filled with people that don't look at statistics and go with their gut like you.

 

[jhtheking]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

Yes, the system tends to get it right at the end of the day. But ‘at the end of the day’ means by signing day. It’s a hindsight rating come Feb. the kids who got chased the most by the best programs get up-rated. Makes sense. Ends up being right. Doesn’t tell you much at all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier, however. Which is when the top kids get recruited.

If UM becomes relevant agan, the kids we recruit will get ratings bumps. Our classes will ‘improve’ on paper. Coker recruits got ratings bumps long after Miami fans realized Coker was a dumpster fire. High ratings didn’t help in ‘04 and ‘08 because Coker and Shannon were bad to middling evaluators.

Richt needs to keep the best local kids home, first and foremost. Do that and we’ll be fine, whatever the ratings gurus say about those kids. Fail to do it and we won’t be fine, no matter how many rhyan andersons we pull from other parts of the country.

The 08 class wasn't as good on paper as it first looks. He filled the class with far too many 2 and 3 stars in addition to the several 4 and 5 stars.

But recruiting rankings have also improved since then. If the numbers in this thread are correct 74% of 5 stars drafted is a vast improvement even from 6 years ago. I remember reading a rivals article back then saying about 55% of 5 stars were drafted.

There may be a recruiting bump when a good school offers, but if it wasn't accurate then these numbers wouldn't look this good. In the past we've lost a lot of the big recruiting battles.

My point is that saying stars matter doesn't miss the point. From a coaching perspective, yes they shouldn't just offer people with 4+ stars for no reason. We aren't the coaches. We analyze how we're progressing, and with Richt everything looks great. Recruiting isn't all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier. I would imagine we recruit a TON of kids based on their potential. I doubt Golden was refusing to recruit some of the best players in south florida when they were younger. He just couldn't compete with other coaches and we ended up with kids that weren't as highly rated. In this day and age there should never be someone that says all of our 3 stars are under the radar. Maybe a few of them are, but filling a class with 18 three stars and claiming it's a good class because the coaches are good evaluators is dubious.

That drafted stat is skewed there are way more 3 stars than 5 stars therefore of course a lessor % of them will get
Drafted. As we’ve seen with this star system continuing to evolve that once a player is annointed as 5 Star ppl use confimirmation bias to fill in the gaps and keep the hype on them going. Ray ray Armstrong is a perfect example he had middling stats and was annointed a Freshman AA he rode that one hit vs OU all the way to the NFL. Jadevon clowney perfect example dude was lazy, had no motor, no cardio, no dog in him. His stats for an “all world” player were terrible. He made a couple of hits in college and for everything else there was an excuse. “He was possibly playng hurt”, “he was saving himself for the NFL”, “he’ll Be movitcated When he gets $$.” I think I even heard Lugninbill say “he was bored with colleg”..then what happened he’s been trash for a top pick. This is his best season and it’s still only ok.

If having high rated kids is all it takes then Bama and St. Nick shouldn’t have been nervous when their Lbs started getting injuries. But they were becuase they know that those players behind the starters regardless of ratings aren’t developed yet or never will.

Think of it as an assembly line: Develop>Win> Recrurit>Repeat
Of course the better you recrut theroically the better product you start with.

That makes no sense. Since there are way more 3 stars then more 3 stars should be drafted if they were equally as good as 5 stars. And even your anecdotal evidence is wrong. Ray Ray wasn't drafted.. not going to explain it further though because you somehow can't comprehend this simple analysis.

Don’t get your panties in a bunch. As it says in my post and your post we are talking %. Not sheer volume. That means the fact here are more 3 stars gives them a lower probability of holding a high average.

I never said Ray Ray was drafted I simply said he rode his Freshman season to the

Simple question: if Lingard was rated a 3 Star do you think the coaches wouldn’t have pursued him? No

Huh? Yes, they're ranked lower. That point doesn't make any sense still. And you implied Ray Ray was drafted. Otherwise it's completely irrelevant. Your point seemed to be that players are drafted soley on their high school ranking, but one of your two examples wasn't drafted.

 

[TheEye]

Compare the stars when Miami played UF last!

 

[arcane]

Star rankings reflect observers' opinions. Of course they "matter." I think that if I let a 10-year-old girl who knows nothing about football watch a bit of tape, the players she ranked higher would, on average, turn out to be better than the ones she ranked lower.

From the other side, look how many of the NFL draft selections seem, in retrospect, to have been "mistakes." Even after all that scrutiny and several more years of evaluation than the high school recruits get, some teams seem have lousy drafts year after year. Some teams are better at drafting than others, and some college coaches seem to have better eyes for talent than others. Jimmy Johnson once said that he wasn't any better at evaluating talent than anyone else, but he was good at seeing who would best fit into his system.

 

[canes614]

Stars matter....also need to develop a few sleepers with NFL measurables to compete for championships at Miami IMO....right now this team needs a impact 3-4* OT and DT to have solid depth...to sure up the trenches in the future Miami needs to hit the JUCO ranks alot sooner....there are several kids that could help right away...the grad transfer route is ok....however, Miami shouldn't haveta always gamble that late in the process.....the staff should always be ahead of the game...

 

[RomeoJunior]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

THE END.

We'll need to keep an eye out on who Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia are recruiting here in the South now. Oh wait!? We have for years,...stars be damned.

(Can anyone seriously picture Richt not having his team scout a kid Clemson or Bama wants from South Florida because he wasnt 3+ stars?? LoL. And please stop chalking them up to straightforward "data" with probability you can come here and argue for them with. They are NOT. The cities these kids are from is factual data I can go on to use in probability. They star game is straight up opinion,...like someone else pointed out)

 

[jhtheking]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

THE END.

We'll need to keep an eye out on who Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia are recruiting here in the South now. Oh wait!? We have for years,...stars be damned.

(Can anyone seriously picture Richt not having his team scout a kid Clemson or Bama wants from South Florida because he wasnt 3+ stars?? LoL. And please stop chalking them up to straightforward "data" with probability you can come here and argue for them with. They are NOT. The cities these kids are from is factual data I can go on to use in probability. They star game is straight up opinion,...like someone else pointed out)

Your whole post misses the point. The data is flying over your head and you don't have any understanding of statistics. It's that simple. Of course we'll recruit a 3 star kid that's legit. There has never been a question of that. 3 stars that are legit are less common, though. WE ARE NOT THE COACHES. WE ARE ANALYZING OUR CLASS. NO ONE HAS EVER SUGGESTED THAT RICHT ONLY RECRUIT 4 AND 5 STARS. But if we end up with Goldenesque classes of sixteen 3 stars and five 4 and 5 stars, would you still be spouting the same sentiment? Not every 5 star will pan out. In fact, we could have thirty 5 stars on our team and they could all suck. However, based on the data, 74% of 5 stars are drafted. I know ignorance is bliss, but data doesn't lie. Feel free to provide examples of one 3 star player who ended up being good, though. I'm sure it will make you feel better.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

THE END.

We'll need to keep an eye out on who Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia are recruiting here in the South now. Oh wait!? We have for years,...stars be damned.

(Can anyone seriously picture Richt not having his team scout a kid Clemson or Bama wants from South Florida because he wasnt 3+ stars?? LoL. And please stop chalking them up to straightforward "data" with probability you can come here and argue for them with. They are NOT. The cities these kids are from is factual data I can go on to use in probability. They star game is straight up opinion,...like someone else pointed out)

Your whole post misses the point. The data is flying over your head and you don't have any understanding of statistics. It's that simple. Of course we'll recruit a 3 star kid that's legit. There has never been a question of that. 3 stars that are legit are less common, though. WE ARE NOT THE COACHES. WE ARE ANALYZING OUR CLASS. NO ONE HAS EVER SUGGESTED THAT RICHT ONLY RECRUIT 4 AND 5 STARS. But if we end up with Goldenesque classes of sixteen 3 stars and five 4 and 5 stars, would you still be spouting the same sentiment? Not every 5 star will pan out. In fact, we could have thirty 5 stars on our team and they could all suck. However, based on the data, 74% of 5 stars are drafted. I know ignorance is bliss, but data doesn't lie. Feel free to provide examples of one 3 star player who ended up being good, though. I'm sure it will make you feel better.

You guys are just talking by each other. The fact is, stars do not tell a staff anything about who to recruit, and if they do, the staff is doing it wrong. On the ofher hand, stars are a quite relevant datapoint for fans attempting to assess how their staff is doing in recruiting. Those statements aren’t in conflict at all. But too many fans seem confused enough to think they are.

The bottom line or this program is that our one advantage is local talent. If we keep the best local kids home, we will be fine, whatever they are rated. If we don’t, we won’t be. That doesn’t mean we don’t need to add in some kids from elsewhere. It means if you build it, they will come. A highly ranked, top performing Miami team will always be attractive to kids from elsewhere. But this program won’t be built to win without getting most of the best local kids.

 

[Dingaan1828]

Stars are someone's opinion of potential. I will trust the eye of a master talent evaluator over star lists. Butch Davis was a master talent evaluator. I'll take his evaluations over some anonymous star lists any day. That doesn't mean that 4 and 5 star guys don't matter. Butch is very likely to like those guys too. But those 90 3* guys who made it to the NFL are much more likely to be seen by Butch than the anonymous star listers. My main point is that an amazing amount of talent gets missed in the star listings. Those 90 3* guys were apparently under-valued (based on their potential).

You either trust your staff to identify and recruit great talent, or you don't. Again. if you can get all those 4 and 5 stars, great. But the real work and talent comes in below that level. No one can deny that Butch was a master at that.

And, I'm not a Butch guy. I'm happy with the guy we got.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Stars are someone's opinion of potential. I will trust the eye of a master talent evaluator over star lists. Butch Davis was a master talent evaluator. I'll take his evaluations over some anonymous star lists any day. That doesn't mean that 4 and 5 star guys don't matter. Butch is very likely to like those guys too. But those 90 3* guys who made it to the NFL are much more likely to be seen by Butch than the anonymous star listers. My main point is that an amazing amount of talent gets missed in the star listings. Those 90 3* guys were apparently under-valued (based on their potential).

You either trust your staff to identify and recruit great talent, or you don't. Again. if you can get all those 4 and 5 stars, great. But the real work and talent comes in below that level. No one can deny that Butch was a master at that.

And, I'm not a Butch guy. I'm happy with the guy we got.

Stars are not someone’s eval. They’re basically an averaging of the evals of the programs recruiting kids. The more major programs want a kid, the higher he’ll likely be ranked.

And Butch was the GOAT evaluator. Expecting others to do what he did is not realistic.

Anyhow, trust whoever you want, but on a recruiting board, I don’t think trusting the staff adds anything to the discussion.

It will take time to see how their evals work out. Feedback on whether they can change minds comes faster.

 

[AlaskaCane]

Yes *s do matter somewhat but u still have to get the RIGHT kids for the scheme u run... grabbing players just cause they are ranked high doesn't always work as well as hoped... and lots of 5* kids get drafted even if they didn't perform well in college, it's called unlocked potential and in a later round that's what u want

 

[Coach Macho]

Wish people would stop referencing some of our great players from 15+ years ago.
The recruiting **** has changed a ton since then and has become much more reliable.


Also...
Wisconsin doesn't play teams that are loaded with 4/5 stars. Stop referencing their ranking as well.

 

[Andrew]

Wish people would stop referencing some of our great players from 15+ years ago.
The recruiting **** has changed a ton since then and has become much more reliable.


Also...
Wisconsin doesn't play teams that are loaded with 4/5 stars. Stop referencing their ranking as well.

To add, using player evaluations from 1999 and 2000 recruiting classes as an argument is bad. It's obvious the different sites (rivals, 247, espn) have gotten better since then. Things like youtube, HUDL and the fact the internet isn't 8 years old have help make this possible.

 

[jhtheking]

Wish people would stop referencing some of our great players from 15+ years ago.
The recruiting **** has changed a ton since then and has become much more reliable.


Also...
Wisconsin doesn't play teams that are loaded with 4/5 stars. Stop referencing their ranking as well.

To add, using player evaluations from 1999 and 2000 recruiting classes as an argument is bad. It's obvious the different sites (rivals, 247, espn) have gotten better since then. Things like youtube, HUDL and the fact the internet isn't 8 years old have help make this possible.

Exactly. An article just 6ish years ago on rivals proudly stated that 55% of 5 star recruits ended up being drafted. 6 years later and that number is at 74%.

 

[caneholic88]

Stars do matter to an extent but luckily for us, due
to location, they're not the end all be all. We're in
such a talent rich area/state, we're able to hit on a
high amount of 3*. Sh*t even Golden stumbled on a few

Just off the top off my head (going off of rivals since I
Can go back to 2002) here are some great players/contributors
that were 3* players:
-Allen Hurns
-Denzel perryman
-walford
-Dorsett
-feliciano
-Njoku
-Herndon
-Pinckney
Rj McIntosh
Garvin
Jaquan

If these dudes were somewhere say in the Midwest they'd
all be 4* star dude's. So a lot of times our overall ratings
are skewed, but we're good cuz they're better than class
rankings suggest and now they're getting coached up...

 

[Harry Heinous]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

Yes, the system tends to get it right at the end of the day. But ‘at the end of the day’ means by signing day. It’s a hindsight rating come Feb. the kids who got chased the most by the best programs get up-rated. Makes sense. Ends up being right. Doesn’t tell you much at all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier, however. Which is when the top kids get recruited.

If UM becomes relevant agan, the kids we recruit will get ratings bumps. Our classes will ‘improve’ on paper. Coker recruits got ratings bumps long after Miami fans realized Coker was a dumpster fire. High ratings didn’t help in ‘04 and ‘08 because Coker and Shannon were bad to middling evaluators.

Richt needs to keep the best local kids home, first and foremost. Do that and we’ll be fine, whatever the ratings gurus say about those kids. Fail to do it and we won’t be fine, no matter how many rhyan andersons we pull from other parts of the country.

/thread