Why stars DO matter.

[ThomasM]

Huge variable..... coaching....

give golden all 5 stars and give saban all 3 stars....

I bet saban wins

Saban lost to Louisiana Monroe before he got his players in. He needs a crap ton of talent advantage to win. Golden sucked, but Saban, without a huge roster advantage, isn't beating anyone with a talent edge. Why do you think Bama has the best bag game in college football? Because they NEED it.

 

[SayWhat]

I have followed recruiting for 15 years.

One thing I have noticed about most recruitniks on signing day and leading up to it, is that stars matter when they're in your favor. They don't when they aren't.

Outliers exist, see FSU this year, but statistically speaking it isn't coincidence that the top teams also top the recruiting lists.

While there will always be outliers, the recruiting services have gotten better. The national camps and online exposure has made it easier to see everything a recruit does from games to camps anywhere in the country. They will still miss, but nothing is perfect.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Definitely agree but having these guys helps too

Lincoln Riley

Vennables

Saban

Among the best

Oh for sure. Clemson became a different team when they hired Brent Vennables. He's the best assistant coach in college football, IMO. But good coaching is also why Clemson is playing above their talent level... really they should be ranked #10 or somewhere in that ballpark if they had average coaching.

He needs to be a head coach somewhere. Vennables >> Kirby Smart in my book. Some team is going to strike gold when they hire this dude.

Miami has also outperformed our talent level by quite a lot. First time that's happened in ages... normally we recruit better than we play. Says good things about Mark Richt and Manny Diaz.

This is just wrong. Clemson is a recruiting powerhouse. Their classes get rated lower mostly because Dabo signs smaller classes. He had three 5* kids in each of ‘15, ‘16 and ‘17. And he has 4 in ‘18, with time left on the clock.

 

[Bunker Mentality]

Huge variable..... coaching....

give golden all 5 stars and give saban all 3 stars....

I bet saban wins

I bet Golden wins.

LARRY COKER won a natty while Nick Saban was going 7-6 at Michigan State with a roster full of 3-stars. Think about that.

Coker won a title with a team that had 19 fist round nfl picks on it. Nineteen!

Not all 19 were 4* & 5*

 

[Bunker Mentality]

I have followed recruiting for 15 years.

One thing I have noticed about most recruitniks on signing day and leading up to it, is that stars matter when they're in your favor. They don't when they aren't.

Outliers exist, see FSU this year, but statistically speaking it isn't coincidence that the top teams also top the recruiting lists.

While there will always be outliers, the recruiting services have gotten better. The national camps and online exposure has made it easier to see everything a recruit does from games to camps anywhere in the country. They will still miss, but nothing is perfect.

It's self-perpetuating.. Talented kids go to Bama because they're winning. Bama keeps winning because they have talent.

 

[Meat]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

Yes, the system tends to get it right at the end of the day. But ‘at the end of the day’ means by signing day. It’s a hindsight rating come Feb. the kids who got chased the most by the best programs get up-rated. Makes sense. Ends up being right. Doesn’t tell you much at all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier, however. Which is when the top kids get recruited.

If UM becomes relevant agan, the kids we recruit will get ratings bumps. Our classes will ‘improve’ on paper. Coker recruits got ratings bumps long after Miami fans realized Coker was a dumpster fire. High ratings didn’t help in ‘04 and ‘08 because Coker and Shannon were bad to middling evaluators.

Richt needs to keep the best local kids home, first and foremost. Do that and we’ll be fine, whatever the ratings gurus say about those kids. Fail to do it and we won’t be fine, no matter how many rhyan andersons we pull from other parts of the country.

Good point about kids being recruited and evaluated years before they're ranked on the sites. But Nick Saban isn't looking at film of 1000's of recruits around the country. Alabama has a recruiting staff of over 90 people who help him with that.

Miami needs to make sure we're doing the same thing. Right now we're doing a good job evaluating the local guys, but we need a bigger recruiting budget/staff so that we can reach in to places like Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, California so that if/when guys like Josh Jobe go elsewhere (this will happen every class) we can have a 5 star guy as the plan b, and not Nigel Bethel.

Also, we need to expand our recruiting out of state so that we can get better trench players. Florida doesn't produce enough in the trenches and we need a recruiting staff helping with this.

 

[Meat]

Definitely agree but having these guys helps too

Lincoln Riley

Vennables

Saban

Among the best

Oh for sure. Clemson became a different team when they hired Brent Vennables. He's the best assistant coach in college football, IMO. But good coaching is also why Clemson is playing above their talent level... really they should be ranked #10 or somewhere in that ballpark if they had average coaching.

He needs to be a head coach somewhere. Vennables >> Kirby Smart in my book. Some team is going to strike gold when they hire this dude.

Miami has also outperformed our talent level by quite a lot. First time that's happened in ages... normally we recruit better than we play. Says good things about Mark Richt and Manny Diaz.

This is just wrong. Clemson is a recruiting powerhouse. Their classes get rated lower mostly because Dabo signs smaller classes. He had three 5* kids in each of ‘15, ‘16 and ‘17. And he has 4 in ‘18, with time left on the clock.

They have the 9th most 4/5* kids on their roster. See the OP.

 

[Sonofmiami2005]

All stars are is athletic ability and potential that's it. Some times nfl teams will draft a 5 star college bust because they think they can tap in to that potential.

 

[CaneSince4Ever]

Also, we need to expand our recruiting out of state so that we can get better trench players. Florida doesn't produce enough in the trenches and we need a recruiting staff helping with this.

D-Line maybe, but we rarely have to leave the State for O-Line talent.

 

[jhtheking]

Huge variable..... coaching....

give golden all 5 stars and give saban all 3 stars....

sI bet saban wins

I bet Golden wins.

LARRY COKER won a natty while Nick Saban was going 7-6 at Michigan State with a roster full of 3-stars. Think about that.

FSU's recruiting classes the past 4 years: 6, 4, 4, 3

FSU's record with that talent: 6-6.

Explain that one, I'll wait

Jesus. A month ago you presumed I didn't go to college for merely thinking that recruits that go to Bama might not get paid. Quite the logical hoop considering I had no insider way of knowing otherwise.

Yet when it comes to something with an actual basis in education you drop this ****. You can't look at one instance. There will always be outliers. Anecdotal evidence. 7th grade math

 

[Sonofmiami2005]

Also, we need to expand our recruiting out of state so that we can get better trench players. Florida doesn't produce enough in the trenches and we need a recruiting staff helping with this.

D-Line maybe, but we rarely have to leave the State for O-Line talent.

Totally agree that we need to land out of state Dline to win big.

 

[jhtheking]

I have followed recruiting for 15 years.

One thing I have noticed about most recruitniks on signing day and leading up to it, is that stars matter when they're in your favor. They don't when they aren't.

Outliers exist, see FSU this year, but statistically speaking it isn't coincidence that the top teams also top the recruiting lists.

While there will always be outliers, the recruiting services have gotten better. The national camps and online exposure has made it easier to see everything a recruit does from games to camps anywhere in the country. They will still miss, but nothing is perfect.

Paging [MENTION=17097]AdrianP[/MENTION]

When we were 10-0 and he was going off about how stars clearly don't matter because we were undefeated. Completely overlooked our last 10+ classes and performance on field.

This is why I don't think we win the ship til 2020. When this class is in their junior year we'll win it with either Nkosi or Jarren at the helm.

 

[kryptonite]

In case this is news to anybody. I always hear that "stars don't matter" but the facts don't bear that out. Recruiting is like gambling. It's all about stacking the odds in your favor. You might strike gold on a 3* recruit, but more often than not the 4/5* kid is going to be better. And in the end, it's all about the odds.


Here are the facts:


A five star recruit has a 74% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 23 picked out of 31 total)
A four star recruit has a 21% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 76 picked out of 354 total)
A three star recruit has a 7% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 90 picked out of 1202 total)

And it goes without saying... having a roster stacked with future NFL talent means you're likely to win some games.



Also, we can look at the number of blue chip player on every team's roster, and see that it matches up very well with the team's success:

Number of blue chips currently on the roster:

1.) Alabama (***** 18, **** 51)
2.) Ohio State (***** 7, **** 56)
3.) USC (***** 8, **** 41)
4.) Georgia (***** 11, **** 43)
5.) FSU (***** 10, **** 38)
6.) LSU (***** 4, **** 48)
7.) Michigan (***** 3, **** 46)
8.) Auburn (***** 4, **** 41)
9.) Clemson (***** 6, **** 34)
10.) Notre Dam (***** 0, **** 46)

compare that to...


Current College Football Rankings

1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. Ohio State
6. Wisconsin
7. Auburn
8. USC
9. Penn State
10. UCF

Obviously there's no coincidence there. Out of 120 Division 1 teams, you see the same names on that top 10 list for a reason. Talent = winning.

(BTW, Miami is #20 in talent with ***** 1 and **** 24, and we are #11 in the rankings)


So my point is that recruiting highly ranked guys is like stacking the deck in your favor. It's like playing with house odds. Sure, you might lose a hand here or there, but in the long run the odds always win out.

Stars DO matter. And we shouldn't fool ourselves in to believing otherwise.

Thanks for doing the numbers, but there really is no argument. Oh, I know people try to argue but there's just nothing there. Anybody who says stars don't matter is clearly a moron.

 

[deleted1998]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

Yes, the system tends to get it right at the end of the day. But ‘at the end of the day’ means by signing day. It’s a hindsight rating come Feb. the kids who got chased the most by the best programs get up-rated. Makes sense. Ends up being right. Doesn’t tell you much at all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier, however. Which is when the top kids get recruited.

If UM becomes relevant agan, the kids we recruit will get ratings bumps. Our classes will ‘improve’ on paper. Coker recruits got ratings bumps long after Miami fans realized Coker was a dumpster fire. High ratings didn’t help in ‘04 and ‘08 because Coker and Shannon were bad to middling evaluators.

Richt needs to keep the best local kids home, first and foremost. Do that and we’ll be fine, whatever the ratings gurus say about those kids. Fail to do it and we won’t be fine, no matter how many rhyan andersons we pull from other parts of the country.

Good point about kids being recruited and evaluated years before they're ranked on the sites. But Nick Saban isn't looking at film of 1000's of recruits around the country. Alabama has a recruiting staff of over 90 people who help him with that.

Miami needs to make sure we're doing the same thing. Right now we're doing a good job evaluating the local guys, but we need a bigger recruiting budget/staff so that we can reach in to places like Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, California so that if/when guys like Josh Jobe go elsewhere (this will happen every class) we can have a 5 star guy as the plan b, and not Nigel Bethel.

Also, we need to expand our recruiting out of state so that we can get better trench players. Florida doesn't produce enough in the trenches and we need a recruiting staff helping with this.

Lol

 

[kryptonite]

Huge variable..... coaching....

give golden all 5 stars and give saban all 3 stars....

sI bet saban wins

I bet Golden wins.

LARRY COKER won a natty while Nick Saban was going 7-6 at Michigan State with a roster full of 3-stars. Think about that.

FSU's recruiting classes the past 4 years: 6, 4, 4, 3

FSU's record with that talent: 6-6.

Explain that one, I'll wait

You can't actually be this stupid.

I hit a hole in one once, I'm basically a pro golfer.
I pump my own gas, I'm an auto mechanic.
I pulled a splinter out of my hand and guess what? That's right, I'm a fcking astronaut.

 

[jhtheking]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

Yes, the system tends to get it right at the end of the day. But ‘at the end of the day’ means by signing day. It’s a hindsight rating come Feb. the kids who got chased the most by the best programs get up-rated. Makes sense. Ends up being right. Doesn’t tell you much at all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier, however. Which is when the top kids get recruited.

If UM becomes relevant agan, the kids we recruit will get ratings bumps. Our classes will ‘improve’ on paper. Coker recruits got ratings bumps long after Miami fans realized Coker was a dumpster fire. High ratings didn’t help in ‘04 and ‘08 because Coker and Shannon were bad to middling evaluators.

Richt needs to keep the best local kids home, first and foremost. Do that and we’ll be fine, whatever the ratings gurus say about those kids. Fail to do it and we won’t be fine, no matter how many rhyan andersons we pull from other parts of the country.

The 08 class wasn't as good on paper as it first looks. He filled the class with far too many 2 and 3 stars in addition to the several 4 and 5 stars.

But recruiting rankings have also improved since then. If the numbers in this thread are correct 74% of 5 stars drafted is a vast improvement even from 6 years ago. I remember reading a rivals article back then saying about 55% of 5 stars were drafted.

There may be a recruiting bump when a good school offers, but if it wasn't accurate then these numbers wouldn't look this good. In the past we've lost a lot of the big recruiting battles.

My point is that saying stars matter doesn't miss the point. From a coaching perspective, yes they shouldn't just offer people with 4+ stars for no reason. We aren't the coaches. We analyze how we're progressing, and with Richt everything looks great. Recruiting isn't all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier. I would imagine we recruit a TON of kids based on their potential. I doubt Golden was refusing to recruit some of the best players in south florida when they were younger. He just couldn't compete with other coaches and we ended up with kids that weren't as highly rated. In this day and age there should never be someone that says all of our 3 stars are under the radar. Maybe a few of them are, but filling a class with 18 three stars and claiming it's a good class because the coaches are good evaluators is dubious.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

Yes, the system tends to get it right at the end of the day. But ‘at the end of the day’ means by signing day. It’s a hindsight rating come Feb. the kids who got chased the most by the best programs get up-rated. Makes sense. Ends up being right. Doesn’t tell you much at all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier, however. Which is when the top kids get recruited.

If UM becomes relevant agan, the kids we recruit will get ratings bumps. Our classes will ‘improve’ on paper. Coker recruits got ratings bumps long after Miami fans realized Coker was a dumpster fire. High ratings didn’t help in ‘04 and ‘08 because Coker and Shannon were bad to middling evaluators.

Richt needs to keep the best local kids home, first and foremost. Do that and we’ll be fine, whatever the ratings gurus say about those kids. Fail to do it and we won’t be fine, no matter how many rhyan andersons we pull from other parts of the country.

Good point about kids being recruited and evaluated years before they're ranked on the sites. But Nick Saban isn't looking at film of 1000's of recruits around the country. Alabama has a recruiting staff of over 90 people who help him with that.

Miami needs to make sure we're doing the same thing. Right now we're doing a good job evaluating the local guys, but we need a bigger recruiting budget/staff so that we can reach in to places like Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, California so that if/when guys like Josh Jobe go elsewhere (this will happen every class) we can have a 5 star guy as the plan b, and not Nigel Bethel.

Also, we need to expand our recruiting out of state so that we can get better trench players. Florida doesn't produce enough in the trenches and we need a recruiting staff helping with this.

We will never compete with alabama on resources.

Foruntately, we don’t have to go that far. We need to cover so fla, mostly. They need to cover a much bigger area.

If we cover our home base well, we will be competitive.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

Yes, the system tends to get it right at the end of the day. But ‘at the end of the day’ means by signing day. It’s a hindsight rating come Feb. the kids who got chased the most by the best programs get up-rated. Makes sense. Ends up being right. Doesn’t tell you much at all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier, however. Which is when the top kids get recruited.

If UM becomes relevant agan, the kids we recruit will get ratings bumps. Our classes will ‘improve’ on paper. Coker recruits got ratings bumps long after Miami fans realized Coker was a dumpster fire. High ratings didn’t help in ‘04 and ‘08 because Coker and Shannon were bad to middling evaluators.

Richt needs to keep the best local kids home, first and foremost. Do that and we’ll be fine, whatever the ratings gurus say about those kids. Fail to do it and we won’t be fine, no matter how many rhyan andersons we pull from other parts of the country.

The 08 class wasn't as good on paper as it first looks. He filled the class with far too many 2 and 3 stars in addition to the several 4 and 5 stars.

But recruiting rankings have also improved since then. If the numbers in this thread are correct 74% of 5 stars drafted is a vast improvement even from 6 years ago. I remember reading a rivals article back then saying about 55% of 5 stars were drafted.

There may be a recruiting bump when a good school offers, but if it wasn't accurate then these numbers wouldn't look this good. In the past we've lost a lot of the big recruiting battles.

My point is that saying stars matter doesn't miss the point. From a coaching perspective, yes they shouldn't just offer people with 4+ stars for no reason. We aren't the coaches. We analyze how we're progressing, and with Richt everything looks great. Recruiting isn't all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier. I would imagine we recruit a TON of kids based on their potential. I doubt Golden was refusing to recruit some of the best players in south florida when they were younger. He just couldn't compete with other coaches and we ended up with kids that weren't as highly rated. In this day and age there should never be someone that says all of our 3 stars are under the radar. Maybe a few of them are, but filling a class with 18 three stars and claiming it's a good class because the coaches are good evaluators is dubious.

Per Rivals, that class had 2 5* kids and 15 4* kids. That is a huge class. Except Randy evaluated poorly. Ben Jones, VT, Holton, Futch, were garbage. Davon Johnson didn’t do much either. And the many 2* kids were just head scratchers for the most part.

 

[jhtheking]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

Yes, the system tends to get it right at the end of the day. But ‘at the end of the day’ means by signing day. It’s a hindsight rating come Feb. the kids who got chased the most by the best programs get up-rated. Makes sense. Ends up being right. Doesn’t tell you much at all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier, however. Which is when the top kids get recruited.

If UM becomes relevant agan, the kids we recruit will get ratings bumps. Our classes will ‘improve’ on paper. Coker recruits got ratings bumps long after Miami fans realized Coker was a dumpster fire. High ratings didn’t help in ‘04 and ‘08 because Coker and Shannon were bad to middling evaluators.

Richt needs to keep the best local kids home, first and foremost. Do that and we’ll be fine, whatever the ratings gurus say about those kids. Fail to do it and we won’t be fine, no matter how many rhyan andersons we pull from other parts of the country.

The 08 class wasn't as good on paper as it first looks. He filled the class with far too many 2 and 3 stars in addition to the several 4 and 5 stars.

But recruiting rankings have also improved since then. If the numbers in this thread are correct 74% of 5 stars drafted is a vast improvement even from 6 years ago. I remember reading a rivals article back then saying about 55% of 5 stars were drafted.

There may be a recruiting bump when a good school offers, but if it wasn't accurate then these numbers wouldn't look this good. In the past we've lost a lot of the big recruiting battles.

My point is that saying stars matter doesn't miss the point. From a coaching perspective, yes they shouldn't just offer people with 4+ stars for no reason. We aren't the coaches. We analyze how we're progressing, and with Richt everything looks great. Recruiting isn't all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier. I would imagine we recruit a TON of kids based on their potential. I doubt Golden was refusing to recruit some of the best players in south florida when they were younger. He just couldn't compete with other coaches and we ended up with kids that weren't as highly rated. In this day and age there should never be someone that says all of our 3 stars are under the radar. Maybe a few of them are, but filling a class with 18 three stars and claiming it's a good class because the coaches are good evaluators is dubious.

Per Rivals, that class had 2 5* kids and 15 4* kids. That is a huge class. Except Randy evaluated poorly. Ben Jones, VT, Holton, Futch, were garbage. Davon Johnson didn’t do much either. And the many 2* kids were just head scratchers for the most part.

I use 247 composite which had 16 4 and 5 stars, and 16 others. That is a good amount of talent, but getting that many 2 and 3 stars dilutes the class a bit. That and you have to get that number of blue chips every year. This year we'll likely end up with about 16 4 and 5 stars, and only a handful of 3 stars. If you look at the elite teams out there, they have a blue chip ratio in the 60% range. I think Bama is around 70%. With this class we're back on track. Right now I believe we're in the mid 30%. Next year we'll be around 45-48%

 

[Meat]

Saying stars matter misses the point. Saban doesn’t recruit kids because others rate them highly. It’s closer to the opposite. He recruits the ones he thinks are the best kids. Others rate them highly because he recruits them.

Yes, the system tends to get it right at the end of the day. But ‘at the end of the day’ means by signing day. It’s a hindsight rating come Feb. the kids who got chased the most by the best programs get up-rated. Makes sense. Ends up being right. Doesn’t tell you much at all about who to recruit 2-3 years earlier, however. Which is when the top kids get recruited.

If UM becomes relevant agan, the kids we recruit will get ratings bumps. Our classes will ‘improve’ on paper. Coker recruits got ratings bumps long after Miami fans realized Coker was a dumpster fire. High ratings didn’t help in ‘04 and ‘08 because Coker and Shannon were bad to middling evaluators.

Richt needs to keep the best local kids home, first and foremost. Do that and we’ll be fine, whatever the ratings gurus say about those kids. Fail to do it and we won’t be fine, no matter how many rhyan andersons we pull from other parts of the country.

Good point about kids being recruited and evaluated years before they're ranked on the sites. But Nick Saban isn't looking at film of 1000's of recruits around the country. Alabama has a recruiting staff of over 90 people who help him with that.

Miami needs to make sure we're doing the same thing. Right now we're doing a good job evaluating the local guys, but we need a bigger recruiting budget/staff so that we can reach in to places like Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, California so that if/when guys like Josh Jobe go elsewhere (this will happen every class) we can have a 5 star guy as the plan b, and not Nigel Bethel.

Also, we need to expand our recruiting out of state so that we can get better trench players. Florida doesn't produce enough in the trenches and we need a recruiting staff helping with this.

We will never compete with alabama on resources.

Foruntately, we don’t have to go that far. We need to cover so fla, mostly. They need to cover a much bigger area.

If we cover our home base well, we will be competitive.

That's true, except for QB, DL, OL, and TE. We should have a national recruiting group focusing on those positions.

It doesn't have to cost the school a lot of money. A lot of the work can be done by interns and volunteers. Just people with some kind of football background who love the U.

**** I would do it for free. I live in Dallas. I would gladly volunteer an hour a day to go talk to local high school and junior high coaches to find out which 8th, 9th, and 10th grade prospects we should be keeping an eye on, make some film, and send the tape to Miami's position coaches. That's what Alabama does.

Miami could employ students, local coaches, and leverage local alumni living in hot recruiting areas if they really wanted to and not spend a lot of money doing it. And I think they should. Narrow the pool of potential players down from the 1000's to the 100's, and that would allow them to get on national kids earlier than they are.