Meat
Junior
- Joined
- Oct 21, 2016
- Messages
- 1,083
In case this is news to anybody. I always hear that "stars don't matter" but the facts don't bear that out. Recruiting is like gambling. It's all about stacking the odds in your favor. You might strike gold on a 3* recruit, but more often than not the 4/5* kid is going to be better. And in the end, it's all about the odds.
Here are the facts:
A five star recruit has a 74% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 23 picked out of 31 total)
A four star recruit has a 21% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 76 picked out of 354 total)
A three star recruit has a 7% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 90 picked out of 1202 total)
And it goes without saying... having a roster stacked with future NFL talent means you're likely to win some games.
Also, we can look at the number of blue chip player on every team's roster, and see that it matches up very well with the team's success:
Number of blue chips currently on the roster:
1.) Alabama (***** 18, **** 51)
2.) Ohio State (***** 7, **** 56)
3.) USC (***** 8, **** 41)
4.) Georgia (***** 11, **** 43)
5.) FSU (***** 10, **** 38)
6.) LSU (***** 4, **** 48)
7.) Michigan (***** 3, **** 46)
8.) Auburn (***** 4, **** 41)
9.) Clemson (***** 6, **** 34)
10.) Notre Dam (***** 0, **** 46)
compare that to...
Current College Football Rankings
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. Ohio State
6. Wisconsin
7. Auburn
8. USC
9. Penn State
10. UCF
Obviously there's no coincidence there. Out of 120 Division 1 teams, you see the same names on that top 10 list for a reason. Talent = winning.
(BTW, Miami is #20 in talent with ***** 1 and **** 24, and we are #11 in the rankings)
So my point is that recruiting highly ranked guys is like stacking the deck in your favor. It's like playing with house odds. Sure, you might lose a hand here or there, but in the long run the odds always win out.
Stars DO matter. And we shouldn't fool ourselves in to believing otherwise.
Here are the facts:
A five star recruit has a 74% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 23 picked out of 31 total)
A four star recruit has a 21% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 76 picked out of 354 total)
A three star recruit has a 7% chance of getting drafted to the NFL (2017 draft: 90 picked out of 1202 total)
And it goes without saying... having a roster stacked with future NFL talent means you're likely to win some games.
Also, we can look at the number of blue chip player on every team's roster, and see that it matches up very well with the team's success:
Number of blue chips currently on the roster:
1.) Alabama (***** 18, **** 51)
2.) Ohio State (***** 7, **** 56)
3.) USC (***** 8, **** 41)
4.) Georgia (***** 11, **** 43)
5.) FSU (***** 10, **** 38)
6.) LSU (***** 4, **** 48)
7.) Michigan (***** 3, **** 46)
8.) Auburn (***** 4, **** 41)
9.) Clemson (***** 6, **** 34)
10.) Notre Dam (***** 0, **** 46)
compare that to...
Current College Football Rankings
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. Ohio State
6. Wisconsin
7. Auburn
8. USC
9. Penn State
10. UCF
Obviously there's no coincidence there. Out of 120 Division 1 teams, you see the same names on that top 10 list for a reason. Talent = winning.
(BTW, Miami is #20 in talent with ***** 1 and **** 24, and we are #11 in the rankings)
So my point is that recruiting highly ranked guys is like stacking the deck in your favor. It's like playing with house odds. Sure, you might lose a hand here or there, but in the long run the odds always win out.
Stars DO matter. And we shouldn't fool ourselves in to believing otherwise.
