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Week 5 Stat Roll

OrangeBowlMagic

OrangeBowlMagic

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As always, these numbers only reflect FBS vs FBS competition. We're starting to get a pretty good sample size as teams get to 4 or 5 games and the competition is increasing. So you're starting to see numbers normalize towards where they traditionally fall, year over year.

Offense:

Yards per play: 1st (8.71 YPP) -- Some context: 2023 LSU averaged 8.49 YPP. 2019 LSU averaged 7.82.
Yards per game: 1st (594.8 YPG) -- Some context: LSU led the country last year with 537 YPG
Points per game: 4th (47.8 PPG)
Passing yards per game: 1st (409.8 YPG)
Passing completion percentage: 10th (70.3%)
Passing yards per attempt: 3rd (11.1 YPA)
Passer rating: 5th (193.56)
Passing TDs: 2nd (16 TDs) -- Texas is ahead by 1, but has played 1 more game
Rushing yards per game: 38th (185 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt: 11th (5.92 YPA)
Rushing TDs: 20th (9)
Sacks given up per game: 21st (1 per game)
3rd down conversion %: 1st (64.4%) -- This is a completely absurd number. In the past 8 FULL SEASONS, the best number is 58%. Bama in 2020.
4th down conversion %: 1st (100%, 2 for 2 on the season, I think we're also #1 in the country in conversions by a WR flat on his *** after slipping)
TFLs allowed per game: 4th (3 per game)
Red Zone TD %: 28th (71.43% TD rate, 15 TDs in 21 chances)
Red Zone Scoring %: 50th (19 scores in 21 chances)
Field goal %: 31st (7 for 8)
PAT %: 1st (30 for 30)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 1st (87)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 1st (39) We are 3 clear of Texas here and they have played an extra game. TEN clear of 3rd place
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 5th (14)
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 6th (7)

Defense:

Yards per play allowed: 21st (4.60 YPP)
Points per game allowed: 18th (16.5 PPG)
Passing yards per game allowed: 31st (180.5 YPG)
Passing completion percentage allowed: 40th (57.8%)
Passing yards per attempt: 11th (5.3 YPA)
Passer rating allowed: 13th (101.14)
Rushing yards per game allowed: 20th (103.25 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt allowed: 46th (3.69 YPA) -- This was 9th headed into last week
Sacks per game: 11th (3.25 sacks per game)
3rd down % allowed: 36th (34.6% allowed)
4th down % allowed: 35th (40% allowed)
TFLs per game: 16th (7.5 per game)
Red Zone td % allowed: 30th (50% allowed -- 4 TDs in 8 chances)
Red Zone Scoring % allowed: 6th (62.5% allowed -- 5 scores in 8 chances)
Punting: 30th (45.0 Yard average)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 56th (48)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 29th (12)
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 10th (3)


Team Stats:

Penalties: 77th (6.8 penalties per game)
Penalty yards: 108th (70.8Yards per game)
Turnover margin: 50th (+0.25 per game -- 6 takeaways, 5 giveaways)
Time of possession: 16th (33:08per game)
Number of offensive plays: (Avg 68.25 plays per game)

Takeaways:

Welp, that took a year off my life. Starting first with the offense, the numbers continue to be absolutely ridiculous. This was our "worst" offensive game of the year, and we still put up over 500 yards, scored 5 TDs, and averaged 7.26 YPP. For context, 7.26 YPP would have you ranked 4th best in the country last year for a season. So it's a very good offensive game, just showing how good the offense has been overall if this is your worst performance. Cam Ward is simply sensational, as usual. It's funny though, you can almost feel how a game is going to go right off the bat. The first drive, as we're lining up, we're literally walking. The first play was a bad throw that Martinez just half-assed tries to one-hand, and Cam was pressured. I said to my wife AFTER ONE PLAY, "this might be a long night". And I was right. Just really no energy to start. It happens, this is college football. And I tried to say so many times on the board last week, we're not winning every game by 30 points. Literally nobody does. You cannot get your team motivated to play their best every single week. It just simply does not happen. Well, we saw our overall C- effort, and we still won. But the offense was still very, very good overall. You just see what happens when you have turnovers. They are the ultimate wild-card. Losing the turnover battle 3 to 1 and still winning a game shows how good this team is. I'll bet we've won maybe 20% of our ACC games over the past 20 years where we had a -2 turnover margin or worse.

So, a sleepwalking start gives them the ball immediately in your territory. Some bad calls, some rough blocking up front, some poor decisions by Cam, and you find yourself down 27-17, more than halfway through the 3rd quarter, and you throw a pick that gets returned to your 17 yard line. So what does a Heisman candidate do from there? Knowing that, in order to win, you're probably going to get the ball 3 MAYBE 4 more times, and you have to score every single time? A Heisman candidate does what a Heisman candidate does. Over the last 3 possessions of the game:

Cam Ward 2/3 passing for 36 yards, 17 yards rushing, touchdown
Cam Ward 3/5 passing for 35 yards, 28 yards rushing, touchdown
Cam Ward 5/6 passing for 53 yards, touchdown (was sacked once)

So when we needed this dude the most, when we absolutely had to have it in a game that was slipping away, as we've seen far too often over the past 20 years, this dude goes 10/14 passing for 124 yards and runs for 45, and we score 21 points on 3 drives. H1M. Cannot say enough about how good this guy has been, he's right in the middle of the Heisman race, and it's fully deserved. The numbers on offense are insane. I won't get too much into the running game because this is already too long of a post, but I do share concerns along with some of you about the overall creativity and effectiveness of the running game. But overall, this is Cam's team, and he's running the offense at an incredibly high level. Especially on 3rd down, the numbers are off the charts great.

Defensively, that was pretty poor. I'm not going to go too insane, because again, I think it was an overall letdown game for the team, and we won. One game doesn't tell a season's worth of stories. But we have to be better going forward, and I think we will. I do think we need to just survive Cal, and get a breather. The bye week should come at a great time for us. Get to Berkeley, get a dub, and get rested. We miss Bain big time on defense, obviously. Baron has been playing basically every snap since he went down, Mesidor is moved inside most of the time, and Alston was hurt too. Barrow got hurt. Damari Brown is hurt. Jaden Harris is hurt. We need to get through 1 more week, and take a breath. But as far as the VT game, they came in REALLY hungry, and played to the potential a lot of people saw in them before the year. Remember, yes they had lost 2 games, but one was in OT to Vandy (who also took a Top 10 Mizzou team to double OT on the road), the other was to Rutgers (who is undefeated) where they lost the turnover battle 3-1 (sound familiar?) and took a safety. Are they good? No. Are they better than "they're 2-2 and lost to Vandy and Rutgers so they are complete and utter dog****" ? Yes. Drones played a REALLY good game overall, and they abused Guidry and our scheme with outside runs and then attacking the middle when we adjusted.

But again, when we HAD to have it, after giving up 24 points in the first half and VT getting the ball to start the 2nd half, here is what we did:

- Force a 52 yard FG, which of course they make, because why wouldn't they?
- 3 and out after getting the ball on our 17 yard line, and force a stop on the fake FG. Zero points getting the ball on the +17.
- TD drive where they got a pretty phantom PI on what was about to be a 3rd and 17, and the TD was an insane play by Drones
- 3 and out
- They got the ball with 1:58 left and at least 2 timeouts on their 25 and only got it to our 30 for a Hail Mary

Again, defense wasn't great. At all. Too sloppy, outleveraged way too much, very poor tackling. But at the end of the day, they only had 394 yards, and 5.97 per play. 5.97 a play ranks you 49th in the country last year. So, as awful as it was, VT really had a pretty average day at the office on offense. But the 2nd half, as usual, we tightened up some. Only allowed 10 points.

Survive and advance. That's all this game is. Ole Miss loses at home as a 16 point favorite. UGA gives up 100 points before they wake up (yes, it's not apples to apples because Bama is talented as ****, but they still got smoked to start the game), Vandy takes Mizzou to double OT 2 weeks ago, Texas was favored by almost 40 against arguably the worst P4 team in the country, and they're in a 2 score game more than halfway through the 4th quarter. You just don't play your best every week. But when you don't play your best, can you still get a win. We did on Friday. I suspect you'll see a much cleaner game next weekend, we'll win by 2+ scores, and then it's get your *** home, get healthy, and get ready to go smack Louisville in the mouth.

Go Canes.
 

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We've outscored opponents 128-20 in the 2nd half this season. VaTechs 4th Q TD was the first we gave up since week 1 vs UF when they got theirs in garbage time.

Sleepwalks happen.
Ole Miss v UK.
Texas was only up 14-6 at half vs a BAD Miss St team.
UGA vs UK
Bama vs USF
Oregon vs Idaho

However, we can't just expect that this outcome will happen again if we sleepwalk again. Hopefully we take this game and learn from it and not let it defy how we start games moving forward cause if we do, we won't be reaching our goals.
 
Brickell said:
Even with the mistakes we made in the VT game, we've only punted six times in five games! Just absurd.

Cam Ward and Dawson are absolutely cooking in the passing Game.
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I played sports my whole life, and not to derail this thread one minute into its creation, but momentum is a real thing. Belief is a REAL thing. Motivation is a very real thing. Don't let journalists or announcers who never played sports tell you that momentum isn't real. It's ******* real. And when you're a 19 point dog, having already lost twice, and you get jacked up to play a team on the road and get down 21-7...there's a REAL chance you start to feel sorry for yourself and **** gets out of control.

So, I'm not taking anything away from VT. They played well, they played hard. And I'm not giving our kids and staff a pass. It wasn't our best game, by a long shot. BUT.....that game was 21-7 early in the 2nd quarter, and we are off and running. Instead, #GoACC calls a completely ridiculous hold on Bell and instead of being 21-7 with us kicking off, VT has the ball on their own 36, only down 1 score, with their entire bench going nuts. AGAIN...Cam can't make that throw. Roman of SOTU did a nice breakdown of the play, and he is 100% correct. Cam got baited, they expected the rub route and wheel because we've been abusing man coverage with it all year, and they switched it perfectly. He cannot throw a pick on the 3 yard line there. Period. But he threw a GORGEOUS touchdown on the play prior, that was wiped off the board on a totally horse**** call.

So, all that drivel to say, the game went how it went for a reason. VT played well, and hard. We did not. But momentum is REAL, and I'd have loved to have seen, in an alternate universe, how that game really goes if the score is 21-7, Sebastian is running around on the field, our kids are all hitting Cam's celly in the endzone, and we have to kick off vs them getting a pick and great field position. IMO that one play gave them belief they could make it a game. And they did from there.
 
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Offense gives us a punchers chance against anyone

Every week is borderline hilarious how our fans view Miami in such a dramatic way (and yes that’s coming from ME) but look at other teams differently

We can play with anyone. Much like the rest of college football we can probably lose to anyone as well
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I played sports my whole life, and not to derail this thread one minute into its creation, but momentum is a real thing. Belief is a REAL thing. Motivation is a very real thing. Don't let journalists or announcers who never played sports tell you that momentum isn't real. It's ******* real. And when you're a 19 point dog, having already lost twice, and you get jacked up to play a team on the road and get down 21-7...there's a REAL chance you start to feel sorry for yourself and **** gets out of control.

So, I'm not taking anything away from VT. They played well, they played hard. And I'm not giving our kids and staff a pass. It wasn't our best game, by a long shot. BUT.....that game was 21-7 early in the 2nd quarter, and we are off and running. Instead, #GoACC calls a completely ridiculous hold on Bell and instead of being 21-7 with us kicking off, VT has the ball on their own 36, only down 1 score, with their entire bench going nuts. AGAIN...Cam can't make that throw. Roman of SOTU did a nice breakdown of the play, and he is 100% correct. Cam got baited, they expected the rub route and wheel because we've been abusing man coverage with it all year, and they switched it perfectly. He cannot throw a pick on the 3 yard line there. Period. But he threw a GORGEOUS touchdown on the play prior, that was wiped off the board on a totally horse**** call.

So, all that drivel to say, the game went how it went for a reason. VT played well, and hard. We did not. But momentum is REAL, and I'd have loved to have seen, in an alternate universe, how that game really goes if the score is 21-7, Sebastian is running around on the field, our kids are all hitting Cam's celly in the endzone, and we have to kick off vs them getting a pick and great field position. IMO that one play gave them belief they could make it a game. And they did from there.
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Good stuff

I’m really interested to see this Cal game. This team just seems to be more focused on the road so far this year. Veteran team on a business trip kind of deal. I don’t think we took VT lightly but VT came in with that mentality against us and almost got it done

I’m expecting a clinic from Cam on Saturday night
 
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Cam Ward is 1st in FBS in both TD's (18) and 20+ yard pass plays (35)

OL is 2nd in FBS in yards before 1st contact (2,102)

defense is 2nd in FBS in interceptions (9)
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
3rd down conversion %: 1st (64.4%) -- This is a completely absurd number. In the past 8 FULL SEASONS, the best number is 58%. Bama in 2020.
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I knew it would be high but This number is incredible and frankly probably not sustainable (probably gonna come down a bit the next 2 games specifically) , but still is a really good sign
 
CaneMutiny06 said:
I knew it would be high but This number is incredible and frankly probably not sustainable (probably gonna come down a bit the next 2 games specifically) , but still is a really good sign
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It’s absolutely going to regress. It has to. I’d have to think 64.4% would be the all-time CFB record.
 
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That glaring third down stat OP emphasized is quite good.
It makes me think we do have a chance against anyone.

And if our third down/fourth down defense can improve a bit we can be very hard to beat.
 
Hegemon said:
Cam Ward knows Cal

That's all I need to know.

We roll by 20+
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How I see it, you have a coach and QB who played in numerous PAC-12 after dark games over the years and can prepare themselves and their team accordingly
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
As always, these numbers only reflect FBS vs FBS competition. We're starting to get a pretty good sample size as teams get to 4 or 5 games and the competition is increasing. So you're starting to see numbers normalize towards where they traditionally fall, year over year.

Offense:

Yards per play: 1st (8.71 YPP) -- Some context: 2023 LSU averaged 8.49 YPP. 2019 LSU averaged 7.82.
Yards per game: 1st (594.8 YPG) -- Some context: LSU led the country last year with 537 YPG
Points per game: 4th (47.8 PPG)
Passing yards per game: 1st (409.8 YPG)
Passing completion percentage: 10th (70.3%)
Passing yards per attempt: 3rd (11.1 YPA)
Passer rating: 5th (193.56)
Passing TDs: 2nd (16 TDs) -- Texas is ahead by 1, but has played 1 more game
Rushing yards per game: 38th (185 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt: 11th (5.92 YPA)
Rushing TDs: 20th (9)
Sacks given up per game: 21st (1 per game)
3rd down conversion %: 1st (64.4%) -- This is a completely absurd number. In the past 8 FULL SEASONS, the best number is 58%. Bama in 2020.
4th down conversion %: 1st (100%, 2 for 2 on the season, I think we're also #1 in the country in conversions by a WR flat on his *** after slipping)
TFLs allowed per game: 4th (3 per game)
Red Zone TD %: 28th (71.43% TD rate, 15 TDs in 21 chances)
Red Zone Scoring %: 50th (19 scores in 21 chances)
Field goal %: 31st (7 for 8)
PAT %: 1st (30 for 30)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 1st (87)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 1st (39) We are 3 clear of Texas here and they have played an extra game. TEN clear of 3rd place
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 5th (14)
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 6th (7)

Defense:

Yards per play allowed: 21st (4.60 YPP)
Points per game allowed: 18th (16.5 PPG)
Passing yards per game allowed: 31st (180.5 YPG)
Passing completion percentage allowed: 40th (57.8%)
Passing yards per attempt: 11th (5.3 YPA)
Passer rating allowed: 13th (101.14)
Rushing yards per game allowed: 20th (103.25 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt allowed: 46th (3.69 YPA) -- This was 9th headed into last week
Sacks per game: 11th (3.25 sacks per game)
3rd down % allowed: 36th (34.6% allowed)
4th down % allowed: 35th (40% allowed)
TFLs per game: 16th (7.5 per game)
Red Zone td % allowed: 30th (50% allowed -- 4 TDs in 8 chances)
Red Zone Scoring % allowed: 6th (62.5% allowed -- 5 scores in 8 chances)
Punting: 30th (45.0 Yard average)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 56th (48)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 29th (12)
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 10th (3)


Team Stats:

Penalties: 77th (6.8 penalties per game)
Penalty yards: 108th (70.8Yards per game)
Turnover margin: 50th (+0.25 per game -- 6 takeaways, 5 giveaways)
Time of possession: 16th (33:08per game)
Number of offensive plays: (Avg 68.25 plays per game)

Takeaways:

Welp, that took a year off my life. Starting first with the offense, the numbers continue to be absolutely ridiculous. This was our "worst" offensive game of the year, and we still put up over 500 yards, scored 5 TDs, and averaged 7.26 YPP. For context, 7.26 YPP would have you ranked 4th best in the country last year for a season. So it's a very good offensive game, just showing how good the offense has been overall if this is your worst performance. Cam Ward is simply sensational, as usual. It's funny though, you can almost feel how a game is going to go right off the bat. The first drive, as we're lining up, we're literally walking. The first play was a bad throw that Martinez just half-assed tries to one-hand, and Cam was pressured. I said to my wife AFTER ONE PLAY, "this might be a long night". And I was right. Just really no energy to start. It happens, this is college football. And I tried to say so many times on the board last week, we're not winning every game by 30 points. Literally nobody does. You cannot get your team motivated to play their best every single week. It just simply does not happen. Well, we saw our overall C- effort, and we still won. But the offense was still very, very good overall. You just see what happens when you have turnovers. They are the ultimate wild-card. Losing the turnover battle 3 to 1 and still winning a game shows how good this team is. I'll bet we've won maybe 20% of our ACC games over the past 20 years where we had a -2 turnover margin or worse.

So, a sleepwalking start gives them the ball immediately in your territory. Some bad calls, some rough blocking up front, some poor decisions by Cam, and you find yourself down 27-17, more than halfway through the 3rd quarter, and you throw a pick that gets returned to your 17 yard line. So what does a Heisman candidate do from there? Knowing that, in order to win, you're probably going to get the ball 3 MAYBE 4 more times, and you have to score every single time? A Heisman candidate does what a Heisman candidate does. Over the last 3 possessions of the game:

Cam Ward 2/3 passing for 36 yards, 17 yards rushing, touchdown
Cam Ward 3/5 passing for 35 yards, 28 yards rushing, touchdown
Cam Ward 5/6 passing for 53 yards, touchdown (was sacked once)

So when we needed this dude the most, when we absolutely had to have it in a game that was slipping away, as we've seen far too often over the past 20 years, this dude goes 10/14 passing for 124 yards and runs for 45, and we score 21 points on 3 drives. H1M. Cannot say enough about how good this guy has been, he's right in the middle of the Heisman race, and it's fully deserved. The numbers on offense are insane. I won't get too much into the running game because this is already too long of a post, but I do share concerns along with some of you about the overall creativity and effectiveness of the running game. But overall, this is Cam's team, and he's running the offense at an incredibly high level. Especially on 3rd down, the numbers are off the charts great.

Defensively, that was pretty poor. I'm not going to go too insane, because again, I think it was an overall letdown game for the team, and we won. One game doesn't tell a season's worth of stories. But we have to be better going forward, and I think we will. I do think we need to just survive Cal, and get a breather. The bye week should come at a great time for us. Get to Berkeley, get a dub, and get rested. We miss Bain big time on defense, obviously. Baron has been playing basically every snap since he went down, Mesidor is moved inside most of the time, and Alston was hurt too. Barrow got hurt. Damari Brown is hurt. Jaden Harris is hurt. We need to get through 1 more week, and take a breath. But as far as the VT game, they came in REALLY hungry, and played to the potential a lot of people saw in them before the year. Remember, yes they had lost 2 games, but one was in OT to Vandy (who also took a Top 10 Mizzou team to double OT on the road), the other was to Rutgers (who is undefeated) where they lost the turnover battle 3-1 (sound familiar?) and took a safety. Are they good? No. Are they better than "they're 2-2 and lost to Vandy and Rutgers so they are complete and utter dog****" ? Yes. Drones played a REALLY good game overall, and they abused Guidry and our scheme with outside runs and then attacking the middle when we adjusted.

But again, when we HAD to have it, after giving up 24 points in the first half and VT getting the ball to start the 2nd half, here is what we did:

- Force a 52 yard FG, which of course they make, because why wouldn't they?
- 3 and out after getting the ball on our 17 yard line, and force a stop on the fake FG. Zero points getting the ball on the +17.
- TD drive where they got a pretty phantom PI on what was about to be a 3rd and 17, and the TD was an insane play by Drones
- 3 and out
- They got the ball with 1:58 left and at least 2 timeouts on their 25 and only got it to our 30 for a Hail Mary

Again, defense wasn't great. At all. Too sloppy, outleveraged way too much, very poor tackling. But at the end of the day, they only had 394 yards, and 5.97 per play. 5.97 a play ranks you 49th in the country last year. So, as awful as it was, VT really had a pretty average day at the office on offense. But the 2nd half, as usual, we tightened up some. Only allowed 10 points.

Survive and advance. That's all this game is. Ole Miss loses at home as a 16 point favorite. UGA gives up 100 points before they wake up (yes, it's not apples to apples because Bama is talented as ****, but they still got smoked to start the game), Vandy takes Mizzou to double OT 2 weeks ago, Texas was favored by almost 40 against arguably the worst P4 team in the country, and they're in a 2 score game more than halfway through the 4th quarter. You just don't play your best every week. But when you don't play your best, can you still get a win. We did on Friday. I suspect you'll see a much cleaner game next weekend, we'll win by 2+ scores, and then it's get your *** home, get healthy, and get ready to go smack Louisville in the mouth.

Go Canes.
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Got to feed the streets @OrangeBowlMagic
 
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