BiltmoreCANE
Freshman
- Joined
- Nov 3, 2011
- Messages
- 1,188
NWS-Miami has increased the storm chance to 40% from 20%. That is more than what would be considered typical summer thunderstorms. Weather links below.
Quick Forecast:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=25.958033740687544&lon=-80.23885667324066#.UirueT96-gE
Radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Discussion:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...FL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Part of last night discussion
CHALLENGING FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TODAY. FAVORING
STRONG CONVECTION/GUSTY WINDS IN OVERALL LIFT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHOS AXIS IS OVERHEAD...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM
THE SURFACE FRONT...AND DRYING AT THE H8-H5 LAYER.
HOWEVER...SBCAPE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM. CONVECTION YESTERDAY WAS
ENHANCED BY SOUTHWEST- MOVING OUTFLOW FROM MORNING ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE JACKSONVILLE...AND THIS LIKELY WILL NOT BE THE CASE
TODAY. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MODESTLY SUPPORT SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 45 KTS...BASED ON PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING. MUCH GREATER THREAT WILL BE EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. WITH EASTERLY FLOW QUITE WEAK TODAY...ATLANTIC BREEZE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO PENETRATE INLAND AND THIS COULD ALLOW INITIATION
OVER METRO-AREAS EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...GULF
BREEZE...INTERACTIONS WITH ATLANTIC BREEZE...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SHOULD REGULATE WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. POPS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...HIGHEST INTERIOR/WEST WITH CHANCE POPS
EAST. MEAN STORM MOTION WILL BE NEAR ZERO...THUS TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IF HEAVY
RAIN SETS UP OVER NAPLES AREA WHERE YESTERDAY 3-6 INCHES FELL.
Quick Forecast:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=25.958033740687544&lon=-80.23885667324066#.UirueT96-gE
Radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Discussion:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...FL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Part of last night discussion
CHALLENGING FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TODAY. FAVORING
STRONG CONVECTION/GUSTY WINDS IN OVERALL LIFT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WHOS AXIS IS OVERHEAD...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM
THE SURFACE FRONT...AND DRYING AT THE H8-H5 LAYER.
HOWEVER...SBCAPE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS ALOFT MAY WARM. CONVECTION YESTERDAY WAS
ENHANCED BY SOUTHWEST- MOVING OUTFLOW FROM MORNING ACTIVITY
OFFSHORE JACKSONVILLE...AND THIS LIKELY WILL NOT BE THE CASE
TODAY. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MODESTLY SUPPORT SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 45 KTS...BASED ON PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING. MUCH GREATER THREAT WILL BE EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. WITH EASTERLY FLOW QUITE WEAK TODAY...ATLANTIC BREEZE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO PENETRATE INLAND AND THIS COULD ALLOW INITIATION
OVER METRO-AREAS EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...GULF
BREEZE...INTERACTIONS WITH ATLANTIC BREEZE...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SHOULD REGULATE WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. POPS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...HIGHEST INTERIOR/WEST WITH CHANCE POPS
EAST. MEAN STORM MOTION WILL BE NEAR ZERO...THUS TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IF HEAVY
RAIN SETS UP OVER NAPLES AREA WHERE YESTERDAY 3-6 INCHES FELL.