Upon Further Review: Carson Beck

[Lance Roffers]

Miami is becoming “QB U” again…with a modern flair. Once again, the portal has delivered an NFL draft declared QB from the heavens and drawn me out of my hole to profile them here. Carson Beck is this year’s portal gift and at just the right time. Miami has a glaring need for experience and security at the QB position and Beck offers both while we wait for a winner to emerge out of the Nickel, Williams, Anderson trio.

But how did he look on film? Follow along with me as we put Carson Beck...

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[Damiencane86]

Love seeing these threads from @Lance Roffers

 

[mcnaire2004]

I will read when I have a spare hour.

 

[Lance Roffers]

Alabama FG makes it a three-score game again. Mesh on 3rd down with a deeper zone sit and Beck sees it. I do like how Georgia gave Beck options he could see quicker here on another 3rd-and-long. Great throw.

Bad throw. TE (Delp) is running along the numbers against cover-2. Beck has the ball float a bit back inside and it’s incomplete. If he throws it on the numbers it’s another deep completion. This QB is not afraid to fit that ball outside the numbers at all. This is what you hear about NFL throws all the time. These throws outside the numbers deep, having to fit it in tight spots is difficult and not many QB’s can do consistently.

Beck makes a looooong throw to get four yards. Really have not liked the Georgia offense at all. This isn’t sour grapes, if you read my Ward breakdown, I continuously praised their OC and his setup (which he’s now off to Oklahoma because he’s really good). Georgia asks their QB to sprint right repeatedly to avoid pressure, make long throws outside of the numbers in contested situations, all to gain five yards.

Ho-hum, asking Beck to convert another 4th down. He has to change another play at the LOS, with a deafening crowd, on 4th down.

Friends. This throw was a dot. And this was all Beck. He checks into the right call, makes a gorgeous throw to a spot only his guy can get it, with the game on-the-line. I’m aware of the narrative about Beck in this game, and that just really is something to me when I’m watching this game and I see the spots he was in on this kind of road environment the entire game and he keeps delivering.

Bad play here. Doesn’t secure the ball and fumbles. Can’t have it and he gives some of that good ju-ju back here.

It’s a perfect throw. Great coverage. No doubt about it. But your receiver has two hands on it and the position like a basketball rebounder. Need you to make a play, my man. This is a 30-yard rope that was as perfect as it gets. Tough catch, but need it.

Another fourth down you’re putting on your QB. Alabama clearly interferes again and this one called.

Give Beck time in the pocket and he will reward you with dots. All day it will be dots.

Dots on dots on dots. We’ve got an NFL QB, my friends. This throw is wonderful. Our old friend Colbie Young with the catch.

You see the back of a LB, you let it fly. Ball is halfway there before the TE looks for the ball. TD.

Something Beck does extraordinarily well is step up in the pocket and deliver downfield. If you can secure him with top tier tackles that give him time on the edge, he will navigate the pocket and throw dimes. In-stride between two defenders outside the numbers again.

Letting it fly right now. Deep and outside the numbers again.

Not a perfect throw. Lost a little juice late and the receiver made the adjustment to come back on it and catch it at the seven. What I want to reinforce is just how aggressive this player is downfield. If you give him an opportunity to test you deep, he will do it over-and-over again. That mentality is exactly what made Cam Ward who he was (Beck isn’t Cam Ward from a playmaker standpoint). I’m ok with the throw because you never overthrow a deep ball. Always underthrow it if you have to because your receiver is much more likely to find the ball and catch it or draw a PI flag. Overthrows are never caught- by definition.

It's now 33-28 and Beck has been put in impossible situations all night. You can’t run the ball. You can’t pass block on the right side. They’ve asked you to make plays on 4th down the entire night long. In Alabama at night. Yet, you’re still there making plays and throwing dots. I’m impressed with that, despite what you hear about the person off-the-field, the tape shows a highly competitive and football character player.

Now, what have I been saying about he will challenge you deep any chance you give him? Look at Alabama is signaling all over to pass routes off.

Beck is watching that lead receiver and identifying how they pass that off. If the defender signaling carries the #1 receiver deep, he will take #7 on an in-breaker. If he doesn’t, that leaves that safety 1-on-1 deep. That receiver is running a deep post-and-up. It’s what happens and he takes it.

Look at this throw. #71 is pushed into his lap. This ball is already in flight to this receiver. It’s a dime and it’s a TD. In this environment. After this start.

As we all know, Ryan Williams made an incredible play to steal it back for Alabama, but that has nothing to do with Carson Beck.

1st down is an out route dropped by receiver. 2nd down is a scramble as the pocket collapses where Beck gets yards upfield. (Not pictured)

Ho-hum dot on 4th down. Again.

He will challenge deep outside the numbers if you give him the look. He will throw dots on in-breakers if you make him. He will scramble if you get home. Not a perfect player, but he will challenge you. To both sides, not just one or the other. Goes deep down the left sideline and Young gets interfered with, but they inexplicably didn’t call it. (Not pictured)

Want to play QB? With the game on the line, gotta have this one. Giant jumping to throw over, backside pursuit from a cat. Receiver not out of his break yet. Ball is gone.

On the last interception, he didn’t have it. Tried to force it. Challenge you. Over-and-over. Sometimes they’re up to the challenge. I thought Young didn’t find the ball in time and didn’t fight enough for it, but it’s still a throw that he didn’t have. And what a play by that DB.

This was Beck’s first interception (which you can read the breakdown above), but after watching the entire game, I agree with this Tweet about how I’m more impressed by his second half. You can also see this receiver didn’t realize it was a slip screen called and caused the interception.



By the numbers:

This was a down season for Carson Beck. It was so poor his own teams’ fans were saying they were losing because of him and they were ready for him to leave. It was so poor NFL Draft evaluators were telling him to go back to school. With that in mind, clearly the numbers are going to paint a picture telling us how bad Carson Beck was, correct? You might be surprised.

In 2024, among all P4 teams, Carson Beck had what Pro Football Focus charted as 23 “Big Time Throws.” Essentially, a pass that is graded as having excellent ball placement and timing and is typically thrown into a tight window or further down the field.

Here is some data on Beck:

• 8th in BTT
• 16th in Passing Grade
• 13th in Sack Percentage (a QB stat)
• 2nd most Drops

Negative Numbers:

• 20 Turnover Worthy Plays (Ward – 17)
• YPA is more average 7.7 (with lots of drops)
• 9th most Batted Passes (10)

I am a huge proponent of Expected Points per Play (EPA) metric as the best descriptive stat available to us (stat that tells us what happened). You will see a large correlation between EPA per Play and winning, actual down-to-down performance, as well as just eye test alignment.

This metric attempts to measure what are the “expected points” for your team at the current spot (down, distance, field position) and then what is the change to that metric after the play. For instance, if it’s 3rd-and-7 and you gain five yards, that’s not the same as gaining five yards on 3rd-and-3.

Here is the net EPA for teams in 2024. I.E. what is the difference between their offensive EPA and their defensive EPA (chart was created by me):

You can see by the teams at the top, this year it does a great job of identifying the best teams. Conversely, here are the QB’s with the top EPA per Play (my chart):

Carson Beck in a year that he was second in the nation in passes dropped by his receivers (and first in lost yards), lost Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey from his receiving core and yet still finished 10th in EPA added per play.

Overall:

You know the numbers for Beck. You know he didn’t have the year he wanted overall and there are reasons he’s still in college after all this time. That said, we have a dude at QB. Review the above screenshots and look at the down-and-distances he was consistently placed in. I showed nearly every pass, so you can see how much Georgia placed on his shoulders and he carried them to excellent results. He was tasked with making changes at the LOS, handling pressure, tight window throws, and handling all of this in a huge road environment.

• I've read/heard the rumors about leadership and that very well could be true. He most certainly won't be Cam Ward in that regard. I can also say that I watched a player show incredible football character in a game he was down 14-0 before he caught his breath and 28-0 through no fault of his own. Yet, despite all of the adversity, he navigated all of the fourth down plays, having to be a one-dimensional offense the entire night, and a crazy environment to take the lead late in the 4th quarter. This is a guy who cares about something on that football field, no matter what you hear.
• Beck thrives on pre-snap motion and seeing the picture the defense is giving him.
• Beck is excellent under-center and can handle making adjustments on his own. Miami was a heavy RPO/Play-Action offense in 2024 and that will play well to Beck's strengths.

Carson Beck just raised the outlook of this season from one of trepidation to one of exhilaration. There were throws all over this game that are throws many NFL QB’s can’t make. Plays that were made that are top-20 level and I might even say fewer QB’s than that will make.

The Georgia offense put everything on Beck, in impossible situations, in an environment that is reserved for very few…and he put them on his back on fourth down after fourth down after fourth down and came through for them. Alabama never really stopped Beck in this game. Beck’s receivers let him down repeatedly. He had an awful fumble that impacted the game, and he didn’t see a hook defender on an interception, but he was marvelous in this one. Making some throws that absolutely make you believe you have another star at QB this year as Miami gives him time to pick apart defenses that he didn’t have this year. An offensive scheme tailor made for his stretch-the-field mentality when a defense tries to take away the underneath stuff that Air-Raid can live on.

Carson Beck was far more impressive than I anticipated him being in this one and I could not be happier to add this player to the fold. He’s number one in the portal for a reason; Georgia fans be darned.

 

[TemplarCane]

Thank you @Lance Roffers

 

[Go Canes!!]

Great stuff thanks.

 

[TheOGCane]

This analysis reviews Carson Beck’s performance in a high-stakes football game against Alabama and evaluates his overall 2024 season. Key points include:


1. Game Performance:


• Beck consistently executed difficult throws, especially deep passes outside the numbers, often in tight windows under pressure.


• He excelled in pre-snap adjustments, making critical plays on numerous 4th downs in a hostile road environment.


• Despite some mistakes (fumble, interception), Beck demonstrated poise and football intelligence.


2. Criticisms:


• Struggled with turnovers (20 turnover-worthy plays) and had a lower yards-per-attempt average.


• Receivers dropped many passes, and the offensive line failed to provide consistent protection.


3. Strengths:


• Ranked highly in “Big Time Throws” (8th) and was 10th in EPA per play despite losing key offensive weapons.


• Thrives in RPO/play-action schemes, which aligns with Miami’s offensive system, making him an exciting portal acquisition.


4. Overall Assessment:


• While not perfect, Beck displayed NFL-level arm talent and resilience under adversity.


• The writer is optimistic about Beck’s potential in Miami’s system, given his downfield aggression and ability to elevate his game in challenging situations.

 

[PUNCICANE]

you sir are underpaid and overworked, but...appreciated

 

[AUcane]

 

[sfcane2]

Great analysis. Amazing that many of the posters weren't excited about him. My question is who did they want in CFB? Pat Mahomes and Joe Burrow don't play in college.

 

[ghost2]

Great stuff as always @Lance Roffers. Would you be willing to put together a brief compare/contrast between Ward and Beck? Understanding there's a lot of apples and oranges there (roster composition, OC, schedule, etc.) I'd be curious to get your opinion on each QB's relative strengths and weaknesses side-by-side.

I'd do it myself but I'm a lazy, lazy man. Also I don't "know as much about football." Also I have no "charm" or "appeal". I don't "wash afterwards" or even the "next day" and when I sleep I "sweat profusely."

You get the idea.

 

[cdmd]

Great stuff, as usual! Thanks @Lance Roffers!!

Here is the link to the game if you'd like to follow along:

 

[JG13]

Good stuff Lance, thank you

 

[The U is back to work]

I quit my job and left my family to read this breakdown. Thank you.

 

[Empirical Cane]

Miami is becoming “QB U” again…with a modern flair. Once again, the portal has delivered an NFL draft declared QB from the heavens and drawn me out of my hole to profile them here. Carson Beck is this year’s portal gift and at just the right time. Miami has a glaring need for experience and security at the QB position and Beck offers both while we wait for a winner to emerge out of the Nickel, Williams, Anderson trio.

But how did he look on film? Follow along with me as we put Carson Beck under the Upon Further Review microscope.

What Game Did I Choose:

I chose to focus on the Alabama-Georgia game for a few reasons; First, it is a big-time game when both teams were hyped. Second, it has All-22 broadcast available via Skycam. Third, he had some struggles in this game but rebounded, so we see the spectrum.

Game Film:

Alabama takes the kick and scores a TD. This impacts a road game like this by obviously amplifying things for the crowd and making it even more difficult on the QB. Defense has a typical 3 x 2 triangle coverage against the two-receiver set to boundary. Mike is tracking the RB to flats, single-high S is tracking both seam and field vertical routes. Beck goes through his reads to boundary and then gets back to his field read backside. If he throws that slant blindly, it’s a pick-6 by Mike, but he waits for the slot to clear behind that Mike and it’s a huge gain.

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This is an aside to Beck, but something you saw from Georgia receivers a lot was just a tendency to try and do far too much and leave yards on the field. This pass was perfect from Beck, and I have no idea why Lovett is trying to run horizontally here. Hit that seam and go. He truly runs right into the defender here and actually goes backwards from where he caught the ball. He’s not even tackled by the defender he’s running towards because he goes backwards and gets tackled by the CB. Get your foot in the ground and get upfield.
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I am going to break down quite a bit of Beck identifying and recognizing defenses because to me, that is why he is such a better prospect than maybe the general perception is of him. Quick glance at defense. Single-high, S buried on the boundary hash. Beck looks at his receiver and confirms the look. Motions the TE to other side to move #8 over the slot and shift the defense even further away from that matchup he wants.
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Friends, this is the human reenactment of the meme where the guy is sitting in his chair and then sits forward. This is pure bliss from a QB prospect in a huge spot. Dropped. He could not have walked down the field and placed the ball any better. You go from a 1st down in the red zone to 3rd-and-10. From the 28, two yards from far hash, to the opposite numbers, at the 19-yard line. ~58 yards in the air, on a dot. I could use the Pythagorean Theorem and get the exact yardage, but hopefully you’ll accept the rounded off number and keep it moving.
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This is a 3rd-and-6 here and he decides to again do with the deep throw outside. I get it because again you’ve got a matchup outside, but this time Alabama bails at the snap and changed the picture to get into a two-deep. Beck didn’t see it (it’s hard to see when your first read is boundary side). He completes this deep to #6, but he pushed off for OPI. He could’ve had this out route for the 1st down if he had seen the slot bail.

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Now you’re down 14-0 and it’s time to feel some nerves. On the road, rocking crowd, national television at night.

They roll the pocket on 1st down and flood the field side. Beck is reading that defender on the 30 here. If he gets depth to take away the middle layer, you dump it to the back. If he sinks to take back, you throw the middle layer, which is what happens here. It’s not a perfect pass, but the receiver drops it again. Now, you’re 2nd-and-10 instead of a 1st down and moving again.
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The OC did a fantastic job in this game of taking the opportunity to run the ball on 2nd down most times that there was an incompletion on 1st down. What he did there, in doing so, was make every 3rd down as long as possible for his QB (this is sarcasm and criticism of the OC to be clear). Great job. Now you’re 3rd-and-8, down 14-0, in a crazy environment. He tries to check the play call here.
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His receiver doesn’t get the play call adjustment and doesn’t run the slip screen that Beck throws here. Friends, Beck checked into the right play call that is an easy 1st down. #4 gets the call because he is going to block that outside guy. This might have gone for a TD if the receiver breaks a tackle. Instead, it goes right to that defender that #4 is going to block and this is an interception. An example of excellent QB play resulting in an interception.
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The WR doesn’t make the adjustment that everyone else made. You can see the linemen released. They got the call. The slot is blocking. He got the call. WR didn’t. Pick. He gets that call and it’s a huge play. It was the perfect adjustment to the defense. Look at all the space.
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Something I’ve noticed already is how much Beck uses motion to identify clues from the defense and identify reads. This is a great skill and something I look for in my QB’s, but it will be something to look for when you translate a fit into Miami, which is a bit more RPO/Play-Action than it was motion based last year. It also means that Beck trusts his reads based on the information he gets and he could be prone to mistakes if the picture changes (such as we saw in the single-high morphing into two-high earlier in this game).

Here, he’s changing the play and using the motion to study the defense, as just another example of what I’m seeing from him in that regard. He pushes #6 & #7 to numbers on one side and then #8 to hash to field side. It gets to a light box and leads to a run of eight. Beck is asked to do a ton in this offense that most QB’s are not asked to do.
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This is a big play here. He goes to throw it and sees the DT get his hand up and pulls it down, but doesn’t reset his feet. I would’ve liked to see him just layer it over instead of pull it down and get off-balance. He misses his throw and they have to punt and you just can’t miss it. The RB could’ve caught it, but a good pass and it’s a huge gain and you keep the ball. (To be fair, Georgia had an OPI call and it wouldn’t have counted, but he didn’t know that at time)
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Alright, you’re down 28-0 at Alabama in a crowd losing their minds to barely start the 2nd quarter. Not ideal. Now you’re 3rd & 10. Not an easy way to live. Where do you go with the ball here? Your RT is getting worked as the protection slide was to the other side. Beck scrambles for nine and it’s 4th-and-1 that gets picked up by a run.
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A good example of how fans see wide open players that the QB doesn’t throw to. Beck is reading this play left-to-right. #1 furthest outside, #2 inside. That means if first read is open you throw it there. He’s open, but if you’re a fan watching broadcast copy you see #2 is wide open. Since #1 is open the QB isn’t even going to look to #2 before releasing the ball. It was caught for a 1st down, but was a meh throw that #86 made a nice catch on.
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Another not great throw here that should be caught. He’s got a WR running an out with a clearout deep outside. Beck puts it a bit behind, but you gotta catch the ball. I thought Beck came off #84 down the seam a bit quick.
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Running a Smash concept (my favorite) and you can see Beck is reading the defender on the 30. If he sinks, he takes #7, if he stays, he takes the corner route. This is an NFL throw all day long and was a seed.
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Gimme gimme more. Run it in for the score from there.
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Get the ball back off a turnover deep in own territory. Beck is called for one of the worst intentional grounding calls I’ve ever seen. Refs are starting to call passes that are far off from a completion, but often times the difference you’re seeing is a QB expecting it to be taken deep and a receiver breaking it off short etc. and that’s what happened in that instance.

The very first play of the game saw a very similar concept where the Mike was covering the flat and moved to open the slant window behind him. On this play, the Mike doesn’t take the flat and instead is jumping the slant to #6 (who I think runs this route poorly both times with far too much weight on his right leg, telegraphing the slant cut). Incomplete and could’ve been six. Beck predetermined this is where he was going the entire time and it was the wrong read.
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We go to the 2nd half with the score 30-7 and this one completely over on the road. Right?

Smash again and this is a misread. The outside defender sinks and he tries the corner when he had the whip/out on this one. He’s been getting pressured relentlessly over RT, who is having an awful game.
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This is the way plays go when you’re down 30-7 and facing 3rd-and-10. One blocker to take two as 55 messes up and 63 has to block two. Sack.
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This is a dart. Rolls to his right at snap again and he hits the TE in that soft spot.
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But as you expected. Dropped.
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Another 3rd-and-long, another pass rush breaking through. Where do you go with the ball? Checkdown or scramble. He scrambles and gets stopped just short. That defender eyeing him is watching both checkdown and QB run. They pick up the fourth on a dive.
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Beck is pressured again. Why does every route from Georgia seem like no one is looking at the QB? RT gets beat again, pushes him wide, QB steps up and takes off. Good technique by Beck to have two hands in pocket and shift ball away from the defender trying to swat it away.
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Huge play on a swing pass called back by WR hold. Putting them behind chains again after Beck had gotten you eight on first down. Then a false start and you’re backwards again.

3rd and 10 screen gets you seven and it’s another fourth down. I am telling you Georgia is putting everything on Beck. The whole game is on his shoulders in impossible spots.

Back pedaling to give him time as a defender is free, he throws a dime to an in-breaking receiver to pick it up.
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That’s what he sees as he lets it go. It’s an NFL level play.
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Great play by defense, but a wonderful throw into #86 just tipped.
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I’m not sure the world where this wasn’t called at least holding or pass interference. But another deep ball perfectly thrown that hits your receiver in the hands. Beck really likes to throw deep on 3rd down, mainly when he sees press man outside without a safety. That’s what is being talking about when you see “pre-snap” read. That’s almost always a first choice if a QB sees a look prior to the snap and doesn’t read anything else at that point but make the throw.
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Another fourth down. This time the slot defender grabs the slot receiver on the out-route and gets flagged. It would’ve been a completion without the grab. (Not pictured)

Little slip screen that #6 (Lovett) admittedly made a really nice run-after-catch on gets them into red zone. Beck throws that outside horizontal screen very well. Quick release, tall, velocity. Perfect for an Air-Raid system that utilizes this play as an extension of the run game. (Not pictured)

Beck catches Alabama trying to change the picture after-the-snap here and sees it early that he has the seam for a TD. Alabama tries to put a robber into that hook zone baiting Beck into a short throw but he sees it and gets the TD. You can call that wide-open, and it was. You can say Alabama messed up on the back-end there, and they did. But the QB has to see this quickly and Beck did.
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Can you just go ahead and give us "Lance Roffers 2026, 2027, 2028 Miami Hurricanes QB1 Preview Edition"?

 

[ben]

 

[Cane30]

I appreciate the detail in these reviews Lance. I expect him to be way better than our fanbase has a clue of. He is a HR pull for the dire situation we were just in and I wasn't high on the season he just had. I could see his situation this season in context, though. A lot of things have to fall in line, along with Beck and Hetherman particularly, but I am starting to see a path to a playoff berth. Have to evaluate the team after Fall camp to really predict that. It is looking much better today than even a week ago.

 

[Big O Cane]

Lance Ro(PFF)ers

 

[TwentySix]

I really think anyone denying that Beck has talent is either a) an idiot or b) just hasn’t watched him play. The concern is the throws where he seems to either panic or just doesn’t see the defense well and has predetermined where he’s going with the ball. The throw you showed when they were backed up on their own 3 that should have been a pick six and his second interception (which doesn’t seem to be in here) are the concern. If those don’t happen the way they did in the middle of the year we’ll be more than fine.

 

[Noahcane]

Wow, awesome content!