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The Turnover Battle: Miami vs. California

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Sebastian Font

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The undefeated Hurricanes head across the country to face Cal for the first time since 2008 on Saturday at 10:30 p.m. EST. And while the turnover battle is always important, it may be the deciding factor on Saturday.

The Canes had a close call versus Virginia Tech last week, as three Cam Ward turnovers directly led to 14 points. It may have been worse if Elijah Arroyo didn’t make the hustle play of the year to stop a return touchdown.

Cal thrives on winning the turnover battle and...

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70% of their picks were against a really bad Thorne/Auburn and FCS UC Davis. I’m sure they’re solid but I’d put the DBs from last week ahead of them.
 
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The best quarterback they’ve faced is DJ Uiagelilei. That’s all you have to know about their defense so far this year.
 
Can Miami handle the Calgorithm?

No. 8 Miami at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN)

After four Miami wins by an average of 42 points, quarterback Cam Ward became a Heisman Trophy favorite and the Hurricanes skyrocketed up the polls. But after sacks, turnovers, defensive breakdowns, a late deficit and a nearly completed Hail Mary, the Hurricanes barely got past Virginia Tech last Friday. Now they take a cross-country trip to play a feisty Cal team, with a spectacularly online fanbase, in a game that will end at about 2 a.m. ET.

Cal has the best pass defense Ward has seen this season: The Golden Bears are 11th in passing success rate allowed, eighth in pressure rate and most interestingly, first in interception rate. Nohl Williams is tied for the national lead with four picks. The run defense has been merely solid, but Miami wants to throw.

The Bears do still have to score, however. That's been difficult. They're 73rd in success rate and 107th in points per drive. The run game is fun -- Jaivian Thomas is averaging 7.0 yards per carry, and star Jaydn Ott should be healthier than he has been all year -- but the passing game is mostly a bunch of nibbles and mistakes. Fernando Mendoza averages just 10.8 yards per completion, and he takes a ridiculous number of sacks considering the short passes. They're 129th in sack rate allowed ... and Miami is 11th in sack rate despite star tackle Rueben Bain Jr. having played just three snaps because of injury. He should be ready to go Saturday night. Cal's poor offensive line versus Miami's awesome defensive front is a fatal matchup, but the Golden Bears could still make things weird.

Current line: Miami -10 (down from -13 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Miami by 10.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 8.5
 
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5XNC said:
What qb has cal faced worth a ****? Not one team they’ve played has a qb.
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DTP said:
The best quarterback they’ve faced is DJ Uiagelilei. That’s all you have to know about their defense so far this year.
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Cal with Justin Wilcox has played Cam twice already. In 2022 he threw 2 picks. Last year he only threw 1, but fumbled 3 times. After 3 turnovers last week, Cam is the one that has to prove he can take care of the ball against Cal. Yeah, CAL has played scrub QBs...but their top 10 in take aways after being (tied for) 1st in takeaways last year.
 
Cam just needs to cut out his early-game sloppiness and over aggressiveness. He has had early INTs or what should have been INTs but were dropped, on poor decision throws in each game. Other than that I just don't see where they match up well with us at all compared to VT, unless the jet lag really has a big impact.
 
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Astcloud11 said:
Cal with Justin Wilcox has played Cam twice already. In 2022 he threw 2 picks. Last year he only threw 1, but fumbled 3 times. After 3 turnovers last week, Cam is the one that has to prove he can take care of the ball against Cal. Yeah, CAL has played scrub QBs...but their top 10 in take aways after being (tied for) 1st in takeaways last year.
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Thtough five games, Can has averaged 1 turnover per game. That’s including the interception that bounced off Jacoby George’s hands right into a USF player’s. He’s lost one fumble through 5 games. He’s never thrown a lot of interceptions despite playing in very pass heavy offenses. Maybe he reverts back to his loose handed ways this week but through five games, he’s been secure with the ball.
 
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Astcloud11 said:
Cal with Justin Wilcox has played Cam twice already. In 2022 he threw 2 picks. Last year he only threw 1, but fumbled 3 times. After 3 turnovers last week, Cam is the one that has to prove he can take care of the ball against Cal. Yeah, CAL has played scrub QBs...but their top 10 in take aways after being (tied for) 1st in takeaways last year.
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Different team. Different oline. Crappy olines at wsu. Got hit a lot. Scrambled more, took hits. Relax
 
I'm not worried at all. We are the best team in the nation. The staff has been saving all the good running plays for starting this week. Canes 58-0
 
I'm just gonna say, in the Auburn game they had 5 turnovers:

1) Good throw, hits the receiver in the hands, and bounces up into Cal defender. Think George's turnover against USF
2) QB gets hit trying to throw the ball, lame duck into Cal dbs hands
3) RB has ball stripped
4) QB wildly underthrows receiver, whose also injured and asking to come out of the game before play starts
5) QB just literally throws it to a db with no Auburn player around

In the FSU game:
1) DJU throws an INT into zone coverage. Not a great throw

There's 1 play where I think the defense made a play to cause a turnover and then there's 1 play where they were in zone and picked off DJU. The non P4 games they played also had some similar turnovers with zone defense. I'm sure they're a good defense but based on what I saw the high turnover margin has more to do with terrible offensive plays than great defensive plays. This isn't Va Tech changing coverage and fooling a QB. It's just typical turnovers from bad offenses. Credit for the dbs catching balls around them, I guess.
 
hurricaneman said:
I'm just gonna say, in the Auburn game they had 5 turnovers:

1) Good throw, hits the receiver in the hands, and bounces up into Cal defender. Think George's turnover against USF
2) QB gets hit trying to throw the ball, lame duck into Cal dbs hands
3) RB has ball stripped
4) QB wildly underthrows receiver, whose also injured and asking to come out of the game before play starts
5) QB just literally throws it to a db with no Auburn player around

In the FSU game:
1) DJU throws an INT into zone coverage. Not a great throw

There's 1 play where I think the defense made a play to cause a turnover and then there's 1 play where they were in zone and picked off DJU. The non P4 games they played also had some similar turnovers with zone defense. I'm sure they're a good defense but based on what I saw the high turnover margin has more to do with terrible offensive plays than great defensive plays. This isn't Va Tech changing coverage and fooling a QB. It's just typical turnovers from bad offenses. Credit for the dbs catching balls around them, I guess.
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Eh, luck is a big part of the game and Cal has it. 2017 a huge number of our turnovers were luck.

You can explain most of Cams turnovers but he still has 6 of them.

Cal is good at something. They are bums but greedy bums.
 
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