CaneBear0207
Junior
- Joined
- Apr 11, 2021
- Messages
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Taking only the 247 composite rankings from the past 4-5 years, with all the caveats about those rankings, here are what I view as the top tiers:
Tier 1 - Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State
Bama has finished 1 or 2 in each of the last 5 years.
Georgia has not been lower than 4 in the last 5 years.
OSU is a half-tier behind, but they belong in this group more than the next. They've been as high as 2 and not lower than 5 in the last 5 years.
Tier 2 - LSU, Texas, Oregon, Oklahoma
These four teams have an average final ranking over the last 4 years between 7.0 and 7.5
Their high finishes are 3-4, and their lowest finishes are 15 (Texas in '21) and 13 (Oregon in '22).
Excellent consistency among this group.
Tier 3 - Notre Dame, Clemson, MIAMI, Texas A&M
Average final rankings over the last 4 years in this group range from 8.75 (Notre Dame) to 10.8 (Texas A&M).
ND is the most consistent over 4 years, with all its finishes between 7 and 10 (inclusive).
A&M has the greatest variance, from its #1 finish in 2022 to #19 this year.
UM has made a jump to finishing 7 and 4 in the past two years, versus 11 and 16 in the years before.
Tier 4 - Penn State, Michigan, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn
This group's average final rankings go from 13.8 (Penn State) to 16.5 (Auburn).
Very impressive what Michigan has done the past two years with final recruiting rankings between 9 and 18.
Penn State has the greatest variance, from 6 (in '22) to 21 (in '21).
Tier 5 - FSU, USCw, Ole Miss, North Carolina, Missouri, Nebraska, Kentucky
I swear I did not gerrymander this just to drop FSU. But their four-year average final ranking is 19.0, which is a significant drop from Auburn's.
USCw is maybe artificially low due to a nine-player class in '22. Once that washes out of the four-year average, I expect them to rise at least one tier.
North Carolina's last two classes (26 and 28) are significant drops from the previous three (11, 14, 13).
Take it for what it's worth.
I expect us to have another top 6-7 finish in 2025 and rise into that second tier.
If we win 10 games this year and make the playoff, the sky is the limit.
Tier 1 - Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State
Bama has finished 1 or 2 in each of the last 5 years.
Georgia has not been lower than 4 in the last 5 years.
OSU is a half-tier behind, but they belong in this group more than the next. They've been as high as 2 and not lower than 5 in the last 5 years.
Tier 2 - LSU, Texas, Oregon, Oklahoma
These four teams have an average final ranking over the last 4 years between 7.0 and 7.5
Their high finishes are 3-4, and their lowest finishes are 15 (Texas in '21) and 13 (Oregon in '22).
Excellent consistency among this group.
Tier 3 - Notre Dame, Clemson, MIAMI, Texas A&M
Average final rankings over the last 4 years in this group range from 8.75 (Notre Dame) to 10.8 (Texas A&M).
ND is the most consistent over 4 years, with all its finishes between 7 and 10 (inclusive).
A&M has the greatest variance, from its #1 finish in 2022 to #19 this year.
UM has made a jump to finishing 7 and 4 in the past two years, versus 11 and 16 in the years before.
Tier 4 - Penn State, Michigan, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn
This group's average final rankings go from 13.8 (Penn State) to 16.5 (Auburn).
Very impressive what Michigan has done the past two years with final recruiting rankings between 9 and 18.
Penn State has the greatest variance, from 6 (in '22) to 21 (in '21).
Tier 5 - FSU, USCw, Ole Miss, North Carolina, Missouri, Nebraska, Kentucky
I swear I did not gerrymander this just to drop FSU. But their four-year average final ranking is 19.0, which is a significant drop from Auburn's.
USCw is maybe artificially low due to a nine-player class in '22. Once that washes out of the four-year average, I expect them to rise at least one tier.
North Carolina's last two classes (26 and 28) are significant drops from the previous three (11, 14, 13).
Take it for what it's worth.
I expect us to have another top 6-7 finish in 2025 and rise into that second tier.
If we win 10 games this year and make the playoff, the sky is the limit.
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