t.o.p. - a statistical look at how our defense wore down

[terdferguson]

I started a thread about 2/3rds of the way through the season about how our defense was getting worn down by being on the field so much every game. We were one of the worst teams in the country in time of possession. Early in the season tackling and run defense were very good. As the season wore on, they both deteriorated. Think about an individual football game. When a defense starts to tire what happens? Tackling starts to go and the other team can usually ram the ball down your throat running it. Now that the season is over, let's look at some stats....

First column is the opponents yards per carry (ypc) against us. Second column is their average ypc on the season. Third column is the difference. A negative number means we held them below their season average. A positive number means we didn't. A really big positive number means our anuses were sore after the game.


______ypc______
Team us avg diff
FAU 3.1 4.4 -1.3
UF.. 2.8 3.6 -0.8
USF 3.0 3.0 0.0
GT.. 5.4 5.6 -0.2
UNC 2.9 3.9 -1.0
WF. 2.4 2.9 -0.5
FSU 4.4 5.7 -1.3
VT.. 3.9 3.1 +0.8
Duke 6.9 4.4 +2.5
UVA 5.3 3.8 +1.5
Pitt. 6.7 3.6 +3.1

a month off to rest and then....

Louis 3.5 4.2 -0.7

Analysis: The trend is obvious. We held the first 7 d1 opponents to at or under their average ypc. That's good. In fact, that's real good in light of how bad our run defense was all of last year. Then a crack in the armor appears against VT, our 9th game of the season. For the first time we give up more ypc than the opponent averages. Then it just continues to worse from there on out. Remember our bye was early in the year and after essentially an extra 2 day rest after UNC, there was no more rest time.

The kicker here is the bowl game. After the clear trend of worsening run defense through the end of the year capped off with Pitt nearly doubling their avg ypc against us, all of a suddenly we completely reversed the trend and stuffed Louisville on the ground. Holding them to 3.5 ypc, .7 yards below their average. Obviously the rest time paid off.

 

[Gamineal]

this site hates facts or numbers...we sucked...

better off starting a randy thread or unis or flying banners

 

[Dandycane]

Which suggests a depth problem which was a well known problem at the beginning of the year.

Recruiting recruiting recruiting......thats the only way out of this mess.

 

[Thoughtsoncanes]

Will more depth help our DEs cover wide receivers?

I'll hang up and listen..

 

[Gamineal]

Will more depth help our DEs cover wide receivers?

I'll hang up and listen..

I kinda thought he was at least trying to make a play...who knows with out being able to question Al or Mark on that...we used it several times this year

 

[DeadPoets]

Early in the season we played 4 god awful offenses. Literally the worst offenses on the planet.

Nothing more nothing less.

People act like things were so good early on. Why? Because we beat a now 4-8 UF team? Lol

Golden's biggest win

 

[caneaddict]

I called it to the people I was watching the game with after the game was 9-2 and we held them to 3 FG's, I said 1-2 more 3 and outs and the defense will crumble...

Louisville isnt even a high tempo offense and they ran 76 plays without trying to

Our offense has a significant role in the D's issues.

 

[Copeseticman]

Just to clarify, the YPC statistic is "Yards Per Carry"?

If so, I would be curious how we faired on Yards Per Pass.

 

[Copeseticman]

Early in the season we played 4 god awful offenses. Literally the worst offenses on the planet.

Your point isn't valid in this argument.

The OP is comparing each opponent over the span of their respective season and his analysis is based on comparing apples to apples: how UM's defense compared to the average YPC for each opponent throughout the season.

IMO, great post and analysis.

 

[terdferguson]

Early in the season we played 4 god awful offenses. Literally the worst offenses on the planet.

Your point isn't valid in this argument.

The OP is comparing each opponents over the span of their respective season. The OP's analysis is based on comparing apples to apples: how UM's defense compared to the average YPC for each opponent throughout the season.

Correct! And yes ypc is yards per carry.

 

[nycane]

3 things hurt this def.

1.) golden handicapped what we can do by being loyal to this senior class of scrubs.
2.) players leaving hurt. ej, gionni, terry,etc.
3.) morris had no ability to move the offense. 118 out of 123 is horrible.

one area to be optimistic is the guys with legit talent have progressed. kamalu and aqm
got better as year went on. Mccord, who is learning a new position made plays.
gunter and crawford have gotten better. Pierre has improved. tracy and denzel are
at an all conference level.

 

[AlexCane]

Did they wear down or stop buying in to Coach D?

 

[terdferguson]

Did they wear down or stop buying in to Coach D?

Does it make any sense to you that they would stop buying in with everything on the line against VT and Duke? And then re-buy in for the meaningless rustled athletic bowl game? I can't buy that. Think specifically about the duke game. We're playing them with the ACC there for the taking and they are gashing us on the ground in the first and second quarters. No way we had already quit from the opening whistle in that game.

That being said, why does it have to be one or the other? I believe it's both. We definitely got worn down by being on the field all year and we definitely quit at times in certain games.

 

[CANE4LIFE]

Did they wear down or stop buying in to Coach D?

They wore down.

Look, I dont understand why this has to be so difficult to admit. You dont have to become a Donofrio apologist, to acknowledge that the offense's inability to sustain drives, created a disasterous situation for a very THIN and untalented defense. Our LB depth was simply attrocious. This is where losing Paul, EJ and Terry was simply FATAL for us. Think about that. You had 1-2 starting LBs in that group right there, and the other would have been playing a **** of a lot of snaps. Instead, we get Cornelius, Gaines, and Armbrister (JAG Central), with DP trying to do everything, it was a total sh*tshow at LB, and Safety was just as bad, with Jenkins and a 75% healthy Bush, having to have Rodgers the quitessential JAG, and Highsmith, a guy who made you yearn for Jeff Popovich having major mintues.

There is no question this defense was horrible, and Donofrio did nothing to help it, but the offense really made things much much worse for this defense. It was feast or famine all year. Very little sustained drives. Either a few big plays, or 3 and out.

I knew the defense was going to crumble against UL if the offense couldnt put a score up. They were playing their hearts out early, and the offense was doing nothing at all. Eventually it was going to break down. But if the offense could have sustained some drives, and put some scores up, I think that game looks different at the end. Maybe we dont win, but it would have been very close.

 

[LA'Cane818]

I think people look into numbers too much. It didn't take an MIT statistician to see that the team was defeated by the VT game. They were dominated by Logan ******* Thomas in the rain. They didn't want to be there. It was down hill from there.

 

[NVA CANE]

So Golden doesn't get blame for fielding a bend don't break philosophy. Sure the offense hung the defense out to dry during the UL game, but how many punts or turnovers did we force in the first half.

We can point to this and that stat to tell a story, but the fact of the matter is, Golden and Dorito are more than willing to give up yards to force a field goal in the redzone or a mistake. That defensive philosophy has as much if not more to do with the defense breaking down as the offense's three and outs as the season progressed.

 

[FullyERicht]

I like the post and it's true the horror show offense contributed. But we were 90th in total D. If we had a better offense we'd still be terrible defensively.

Our run D is decent bc we run a system that was built to stop the run on first and second down. Unfortunately, offenses have evolved from the "run, run, 2 WR pass route" offense.

 

[terdferguson]

Guys this time of possession stuff isn't about defending the defense or blaming the offense. In my post earlier this season about t.o.p. I said that it's both the defense's and offense's fault. I still believe that. The defense is laughably bad. They play a large hand in why they're on the field so much. The only fix is a new dc and new philosophy. The offense sucks at sustaining drives. It's feast or famine. Hit a bomb or go 3 and out. I think Morris has a lot to do with that. I'm hopefully that Williams will be a "move the chains" type guy for us next year.

The upside of the t.o.p. stats that I posted is that I think utough worked. Our defense got blown off the ball last year in the run game all year long. We got bigger and stronger and saw some results in the run d as a result. Of course none of this really matters unless we overhaul the d, but if we get lucky enough to pair a competent dc with utough we could be in business on defense next year.

 

[Wewillnotgopeacefully]

Early in the season we played 4 god awful offenses. Literally the worst offenses on the planet.

Nothing more nothing less.

People act like things were so good early on. Why? Because we beat a now 4-8 UF team? Lol

Golden's biggest win

Why people say stupid stuff like this, is beyond me. Every team in the country has cupcakes on their schedule too. Again, proceed as if they don't.

 

[Biscuits]

Early in the season we played 4 god awful offenses. Literally the worst offenses on the planet.

Your point isn't valid in this argument.

The OP is comparing each opponent over the span of their respective season and his analysis is based on comparing apples to apples: how UM's defense compared to the average YPC for each opponent throughout the season.

IMO, great post and analysis.

Bull****.

Stats don't exist in a vacuum. AQ powers are supposed to hold ****** teams to well below their respective averages. Oftentimes, bad teams play other bad teams. Simply because you hold a bunch of ****rag offenses below their norm does not mean you're achieving at a high clip relative to your peers. It means you'd kick a bunch of *** in the SunBelt or FCS.

Now, I still think OP has a valid point, but you can't discount **** opposition.