[MENTION=13747]101bat[/MENTION] - We agree that recruiting by the numbers "CAN" also get you in trouble but this is often caused when you over recruit a particular position.
Now to answer your questions:
Should I sacrifice a potential difference maker for a 5 year backup just to keep the numbers? The short answer is "YES". If your numbers are correct across the board to include the right numbers per class then the loss of three lineman as you described would be ideal. Each kid should be recruited as a potential starter and after two years you should have a better idea of how much value they add to your team.
Do I take a guy just to put a peg on the board or do you roll the dice and take a skill position guy? "Yes" put the peg on the board with the best available player and coach him up. This is important because you can't just recruit your way to a championship at some point you will have to coach and your program as a whole will have to kick in and develope the young men into the stars that we want to see.
Do I take Wims and Davis or let one walk for a marginal recruit that fills a need that I hope to coach up? "Yes" I will take one and let the other walk. There is no guarantee either of them will do sh** at the next level. When you watch these films at the high school level the playing field is not equal. You really don't know what you got until they step on the field with their equals in size, speed, quickness etc...
There will be a hand full of guys at the college level that will get by with elite talent alone..... Everyone else will need to be taught technique, fundamentals of football, game prep and etc...