supacane
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- Feb 13, 2013
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He was ranked as a 3 star, which was the point of the thread
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South Florida 3-stars > everyone else's 4-stars
- Thread starter Meat
- Start date
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RepTheGables
Energy Vampire
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2012
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- 4,159
It looks like Meat and DMoney are participating in different arguments.
Meat is saying that the average Florida 3-star isn't better (really, more likely to be drafted) than the average national 3-star. DMoney is saying that South Florida uniquely produces 3-stars which develop into transcendent players. I think that both are correct, and that has to do with the shape of the talent distribution down in South Florida: it has a fatter tail (a higher percentage of studs, in this case) than other places. Richt didn't say that *every* 3-star in Miami would be a 4 or 5-star elsewhere. He counted several. It turns out that there are enough to fit in that category that he's willing to spend the majority of his time in the 305.
I will say that OP's comparison of draftworthiness for *average* 3-stars- while interesting- isn't really relevant to UM. UM should be (and is currently) recruiting a class that's primarily composed of 4 and 5-star players and filled in by the best 3-star players. The great majority of these will come from South Florida.
(I'm going to accept the fact that we aren't going to sift through five years of draft data to get average draft position by star rating and home state. So Meat's ~7% is what we've got to work with. However, performance in the League is more important than draftability, so those graphics showing the Canes' overachievement with respect to draft position adds a bit of fuel to DMoney's point.)
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Meat is saying that the average Florida 3-star isn't better (really, more likely to be drafted) than the average national 3-star. DMoney is saying that South Florida uniquely produces 3-stars which develop into transcendent players. I think that both are correct, and that has to do with the shape of the talent distribution down in South Florida: it has a fatter tail (a higher percentage of studs, in this case) than other places. Richt didn't say that *every* 3-star in Miami would be a 4 or 5-star elsewhere. He counted several. It turns out that there are enough to fit in that category that he's willing to spend the majority of his time in the 305.
I will say that OP's comparison of draftworthiness for *average* 3-stars- while interesting- isn't really relevant to UM. UM should be (and is currently) recruiting a class that's primarily composed of 4 and 5-star players and filled in by the best 3-star players. The great majority of these will come from South Florida.
(I'm going to accept the fact that we aren't going to sift through five years of draft data to get average draft position by star rating and home state. So Meat's ~7% is what we've got to work with. However, performance in the League is more important than draftability, so those graphics showing the Canes' overachievement with respect to draft position adds a bit of fuel to DMoney's point.)
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