South Florida 3-stars > everyone else's 4-stars

[Meat]

I said please you meatheaded, number-manipulating lying sack of smegma.

Your entire thesis has been rendered invalid by use of selective data and lack of consistency.

You came to a conclusion beforehand and cherry picked the numbers and date ranges that supported your conclusion.

D$ destroys the entire thesis with the NFL data

Dmoney did not destroy the thesis unless you're dumb as a brick. Dmoney just listed out some people he thinks were 3 stars. Zero actual data.

jhtheking bro, if you're a lawyer, I'm calling you up. You're good.

 

[Meat]

And a picture for the ones who don't read good

View attachment 56628

To get the number of FLORIDA 3-stars, go to the same source (Rivals 2016) and filter by state.

And to get the draft data, the link to the table is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft

To get the player's hometown, you have to click on their name on the table above, and it shows the high school here:


And to get their star rankings, you have to go one-by-one on 247.

As expected, OP needs to check his math.

You're dividing the three stars selected in the 2017 NFL draft (90) by the number of "draft eligible three stars" (1,202). But those "draft eligible three stars" aren't even draft eligible. By your own chart, they graduated high school in 2016.

If you have the time to do a statistically legitimate year-by-year comparison (with a specific focus on South Florida, instead of Florida generally), be my guest. But don't pass off this half-baked bull**** as data.

Number of 3-stars by year:

2012 National: 1510 ///// Florida: 210
2013 National: 1290 ///// Florida: 167
2014 National: 1200 ///// Florida: 145
2015 National: 1249 ///// Florida: 149
2016 National: 1202 ///// Florida: 158

The numbers are pretty consistent over the years. (Rivals is the best way to look this up) You can use any year you want as the basis, and the numbers still come out to about 7% that are drafted in to the NFL.

It's not possible to filter the results just for South Florida, unfortunately. I agree that it would be more interesting to look at it that way.

If you scroll the list in the OP, though, you'll find that of the 3* players that were drafted, Western, Central, and Northern Florida are represented just as heavily as South Florida.

It's too bad you see what I've done as being "half baked." It's really not.

South Florida plays the best high school football in the country, period. I'm not trying to say they don't. Your chart showing NFL players by city shows that pretty clearly. The thing is, we have a TON of all americans down here too.

Miami is the New York City of high school football. We have more of everything. More 5-stars, more 4-stars, more 3-stars, more unrated kids. There's just a lot of football being played. All my numbers show is that the HIT PERCENTAGE on a 3-star is not any better in Miami than it is anywhere else. But we have so many more of them that the NUMBER (COUNT) that actually end up being studs is higher than other places.

Percent vs count, that's what is tripping everyone up.

And people who look at things in terms of anecdotes will remember the 10 or 20 3-stars who went on to the NFL and will assume that our 3-stars are just better. What they're not remembering, though, is the 200 3-stars who came and went and never did anything.

 

[DMoney]

It's not possible to filter the results just for South Florida, unfortunately. I agree that it would be more interesting to look at it that way.

It's the only way to look at it when the thread is called "South Florida 3-stars > everyone else's 4-stars."

You're making this up as you go. First, you post an incomplete list of names and pass it off as complete. Then you make nonsensical percentages in the OP by mixing and matching years. Then you concede that South Florida has more high-quality three stars than anywhere else, but tell us to focus on "hit rate."

Ignoring the numerous other issues (like only using one draft class), my question is: what is your point?

You say Miami needs to stop worrying about three stars. Then, in the same breath, you say that the number of three star studs out of Miami is "higher than other places." So which is it?

If Miami has the most stud three stars, then we should be well aware of them and recruit the best ones. It's basic **** and obvious to any good coach who has ever been down here.

 

[ShadowSpring]

I'm not even sure what OP is even trying to argue now.

Looks like he's just trying to escape this thread without a bruised ego.

 

[Meat]

It's not possible to filter the results just for South Florida, unfortunately. I agree that it would be more interesting to look at it that way.

It's the only way to look at it when the thread is called "South Florida 3-stars > everyone else's 4-stars."

You're making this up as you go. First, you post an incomplete list of names and pass it off as complete. Then you make nonsensical percentages in the OP by mixing and matching years. Then you concede that South Florida has more high-quality three stars than anywhere else, but tell us to focus on "hit rate."

Ignoring the numerous other issues (like only using one draft class), my question is: what is your point?

You say Miami needs to stop worrying about three stars. Then, in the same breath, you say that the number of three star studs out of Miami is "higher than other places." So which is it?

If Miami has the most stud three stars, then we should be well aware of them and recruit the best ones. It's basic **** and obvious to any good coach who has ever been down here.

I'm answering questions as I go, because I don't know where people are going to get hung up. I can't read minds. I'm doing my best in good faith to explain my work in a way that people can understand it.

The list of names is complete. It wasn't before, and now it is. It is what it is.

The percentages are not nonsensical. As I said, they end up around 7% no matter which year you use as a base. And, more importantly, there is no difference between the national rate and the Florida rate no matter which year you use.

I titled the thread "South Florida 3-stars > everyone else's 4-stars" because the original post only contained the typed out list of names. Those kids are all from South Florida.

I added the NFL draft data and compared that to 3-stars in the state of Florida later, as a response to the second post in the thread by No Fly Zone: "That's not terribly persuasive to me. If you want a better comparison, take all 3*s from a class and determine % drafted. Do the same for Florida kids that same year. Compare the percentages. If the numbers are close, then a 3* is a 3*. Otherwise.."

I took him up on it because it interested me and I wanted to see what the results would be. I was curious and I wanted to know.

South Florida does have more high-quality 3 stars. It also has more low-quality 3 stars. It just has more 3 stars, period.

You asked what my point was. Don't settle. Simple as that. Al Golden failed because he whiffed on studs and then settled on scrubs. You say that we should recruit the "best" 3-stars as if it's that easy to pick them out. I don't think it's so easy. Golden obviously couldn't do it. And outside of coach Kool, I don't think our staff has a track record of identifying under-the-radar guys either. Richt is an elite recruiter. If we win with Richt, it'll be because he continues to recruit the way he has recruited this cycle (which is phenomenal, by the way.)

By the way, you can sit here and pick apart the methodology behind my post and that's fine and good.... but has anyone ever done anything similar proving that South Florida recruits REALLY ARE undervalued? I mean, instead of just trying to poke holes in my work, if you're so sure you're right then you should easily be able to make a case proving it.

If you said the moon was made of cheese, I wouldn't get in to a debate with you about the merits of cheese. I would just show you a moon rock. So can you show us that South Florida recruits are actually underrated?

 

[DMoney]

South Florida does have more high-quality 3 stars.

Thanks. You should have said this in the OP and saved everybody time.

By the way, you can sit here and pick apart the methodology behind my post and that's fine and good.... but has anyone ever done anything similar proving that South Florida recruits REALLY ARE undervalued?

The NFL numbers speak for themselves. It's not about South Florida recruits being "undervalued" as a group. It's about the amount of undervalued South Florida recruits who turn out to be studs.

There is a volume of sleeper studs in our backyard. That makes this program unique. I expect our coaches to have a higher "hit rate" than interns doing data entry at the outer fringes of the Rivals database.

And again, I ask what your point is. "Don't settle?" Has anybody ever downplayed South Florida 4-stars and 5-stars in the history of this site? We need the local stars like Donaldson. We need the unheralded local guys like Garvin. We need the best players in South Florida.

 

[ChosenOne]

I don't got any stats but all I know is I've seen plenty of 3 stars here through the Golden and Shannon era and most of them sucked.

 

[Meat]

It's not about South Florida recruits being "undervalued" as a group. It's about the amount of undervalued South Florida recruits who turn out to be studs.

There is a volume of sleeper studs in our backyard. That makes this program unique.

This is exactly how I see it too. But it's tough to find the sleepers. For every Jonathan Garvin, there's a Dwayne Hoilet. Now, Kool is a special talent evaluator. I hope we can say the same about the whole staff.

And again, I ask what your point is. "Don't settle?" Has anybody ever downplayed South Florida 4-stars and 5-stars in the history of this site? We need the local stars like Donaldson. We need the unheralded local guys like Garvin. We need the best players in South Florida.

A lot of people do say "stars don't matter" and "a South Florida 3-star is like a 4-star anywhere else." I guess I could just let them believe what they want. But sometimes it's fun to just talk football.

I personally believe that champions are built on signing day. I don't get in to X's and O's like most people around here. I think they matter, but I believe it's mostly about the dudes on the roster. And while I think development matters a little bit, I think talent is 90% God-given.

So I get as passionate about recruiting as I do on game day. Because I want Miami to win. And, like you say, to do that we need the best players.

 

[canes614]

Sfla has more "better" 3* than any other area.....the automatic 4* rating is a bit much tho....lol.

 

[Shogungts]

South Florida does have more high-quality 3 stars.

Thanks. You should have said this in the OP and saved everybody time.

C'mon D - you are the one selectively quoting there as the very next sentences were "It also has more low-quality 3 stars. It just has more 3 stars, period."

Meat's point is that yes, South Florida puts out the best and most talent, but in general the services are pretty good at recognizing that and accounting for it.

 

[RomeoJunior]

There are plenty of 3* from Florida who get drafted. You can see them on the chart in the OP. The thing is, there are something like 170 3-star players that come out of Florida every year! So even if you have a handful that are drafted, so many more are not. That's what trips people up. If you just look at a list of players drafted, you'll see a lot of 3-stars and think to yourself that stars don't matter. But when you consider that there are 10 times as many 3-stars as 4 stars, then you realize that the hit rate on 3-stars is much much lower.

Fuzzy math and reasoning, tho. Hey!! What are the odds that since South Fl is such a hotbed....a # of kids that ordinarily wouldnt be 3 stars elsewhere, are 3 stars nationally? To...u know....make sure they dont leave anyone off due to the high success rate of South Fl players??

Then THEY are the ones cheating the #'s and leading you astray to argue for the egg while ignoring the existence of the chicken.

At the end of the day...per what's been posted.... South FL's kids below the 4 star level are ENORMOUSLY more successful regarding NFL talent than kids in other large metropolises.

Does this mean just close your eyes and pick any of them?? **** no. Does it mean these services are selective and inaccurate....so you as a hometown team can be greatly successful cherrypicking the right ones? Yes. As shown...the talent pool is better.

 

[RomeoJunior]

Meat's point is that yes, South Florida puts out the best and most talent, but in general the services are pretty good at recognizing that and accounting for it.

Not necessarily. Throwing a bunch of stuff on the wall knowing some of it will sick isint necessarily accounting for any aside from covering your tracks. Whats being suggested is they're doing just fine at the top...while in reality,...they simply made more room at the bottom to account for missing. Fine with me,....I just hate to see their manipulation of numbers being used elsewhere as evidence.

 

[FyreHam]

South Florida does have more high-quality 3 stars.

Thanks. You should have said this in the OP and saved everybody time.

By the way, you can sit here and pick apart the methodology behind my post and that's fine and good.... but has anyone ever done anything similar proving that South Florida recruits REALLY ARE undervalued?

The NFL numbers speak for themselves. It's not about South Florida recruits being "undervalued" as a group. It's about the amount of undervalued South Florida recruits who turn out to be studs.

There is a volume of sleeper studs in our backyard. That makes this program unique. I expect our coaches to have a higher "hit rate" than interns doing data entry at the outer fringes of the Rivals database.

And again, I ask what your point is. "Don't settle?" Has anybody ever downplayed South Florida 4-stars and 5-stars in the history of this site? We need the local stars like Donaldson. We need the unheralded local guys like Garvin. We need the best players in South Florida.

OP made a sensical argument and you didn’t counter it with data beyond splitting hairs about minor oversights.

More people play football in Florida so more people make it to the NFL. There is no evidence that something is in the water here where a statement like “South Florida 3-Stars are like 4-stars everywhere else” is remotely true. Richt saying it is good PR.

That doesn’t mean South Florida doesn’t have a lot of talent because of the sheer volume.

 

[FyreHam]

There are plenty of 3* from Florida who get drafted. You can see them on the chart in the OP. The thing is, there are something like 170 3-star players that come out of Florida every year! So even if you have a handful that are drafted, so many more are not. That's what trips people up. If you just look at a list of players drafted, you'll see a lot of 3-stars and think to yourself that stars don't matter. But when you consider that there are 10 times as many 3-stars as 4 stars, then you realize that the hit rate on 3-stars is much much lower.

Fuzzy math and reasoning, tho. Hey!! What are the odds that since South Fl is such a hotbed....a # of kids that ordinarily wouldnt be 3 stars elsewhere, are 3 stars nationally? To...u know....make sure they dont leave anyone off due to the high success rate of South Fl players??

Then THEY are the ones cheating the #'s and leading you astray to argue for the egg while ignoring the existence of the chicken.

At the end of the day...per what's been posted.... South FL's kids below the 4 star level are ENORMOUSLY more successful regarding NFL talent than kids in other large metropolises.

Does this mean just close your eyes and pick any of them?? **** no. Does it mean these services are selective and inaccurate....so you as a hometown team can be greatly successful cherrypicking the right ones? Yes. As shown...the talent pool is better.

There is no evidence that anybody knows how to do this. Good talent evaluation matters but the best talent evaluation is landing as many blue chip guys as possible to increase the percentages that a player is an impact guy. The cherrypicking narrative makes sense but coaches are still making educated guesses.

 

[ShadowSpring]

So after 4 pages we are in agreement and what I been saying all along.

It's a good idea to take 4-5* players as they have a higher percentage of being hits and developing into good players. Not rocket science.

It's also a fact there are huge numbers of 2-3* players that become All-American players. There happens to be huge numbers of these players from South Florida.

Oh gee oh darn.....maybe it would be a good idea to sign the bluechip players from South Florida as the base of a class (high percentage of hit) and then fill it in with diamonds in the rough the staff is very high on. Hmmm. Maybe that would be good. Cause if we can find these stud players the services miss we will kick Sabans ***.

So take Blades, Ivey, Frierson, Hall, Campbell, Surtain, and fill it in with athletes like Bethel. That would be a good idea. The 'he's not Miami caliber' clowns are just being lazy and front runners. He may very well be 'Miami caliber' and you have no idea.

Talent evaluation.

 

[TooColdToHold]

I remember an interview with Richt on WQAM where he flat out stated that they have identified several 3 and 4 star players in South Florida that would be 4 or 5 stars if they lived in another state. He said that is one of the first things the staff noticed when they started evaluating players.

 

[ShadowSpring]

I remember an interview with Richt on WQAM where he flat out stated that they have identified several 3 and 4 star players in South Florida that would be 4 or 5 stars if they lived in another state. He said that is one of the first thing the staff noticed when they started evaluating players.

Thus the reason teams like Georgia have no problem taking a 3* DB from MNW.

 

[umhurricane2511]

Are we really arguing this?

Save this thread for June.

 

[canes614]

So after 4 pages we are in agreement and what I been saying all along.

It's a good idea to take 4-5* players as they have a higher percentage of being hits and developing into good players. Not rocket science.

It's also a fact there are huge numbers of 2-3* players that become All-American players. There happens to be huge numbers of these players from South Florida.

Oh gee oh darn.....maybe it would be a good idea to sign the bluechip players from South Florida as the base of a class (high percentage of hit) and then fill it in with diamonds in the rough the staff is very high on. Hmmm. Maybe that would be good. Cause if we can find these stud players the services miss we will kick Sabans ***.

So take Blades, Ivey, Frierson, Hall, Campbell, Surtain, and fill it in with athletes like Bethel. That would be a good idea. The 'he's not Miami caliber' clowns are just being lazy and front runners. He may very well be 'Miami caliber' and you have no idea.

Talent evaluation.

I'd rather go after sleepers like Ken Montgomery jr. or Taiyon Palmer....just don't see a kid labeled as a "athlete" not heavily involved in HS ever playing a down at Miami...it "might" be different if MNW was loaded with playmakers or top notch DBs...

 

[ShadowSpring]

So after 4 pages we are in agreement and what I been saying all along.

It's a good idea to take 4-5* players as they have a higher percentage of being hits and developing into good players. Not rocket science.

It's also a fact there are huge numbers of 2-3* players that become All-American players. There happens to be huge numbers of these players from South Florida.

Oh gee oh darn.....maybe it would be a good idea to sign the bluechip players from South Florida as the base of a class (high percentage of hit) and then fill it in with diamonds in the rough the staff is very high on. Hmmm. Maybe that would be good. Cause if we can find these stud players the services miss we will kick Sabans ***.

So take Blades, Ivey, Frierson, Hall, Campbell, Surtain, and fill it in with athletes like Bethel. That would be a good idea. The 'he's not Miami caliber' clowns are just being lazy and front runners. He may very well be 'Miami caliber' and you have no idea.

Talent evaluation.

I'd rather go after sleepers like Ken Montgomery jr. or Taiyon Palmer....just don't see a kid labeled as a "athlete" not heavily involved in HS ever playing a down at Miami...it "might" be different if MNW was loaded with playmakers or top notch DBs...

Bethel was a key WR to a championship MNW squad.....heavily involved.