South Florida 3-stars > everyone else's 4-stars

[ShadowSpring]

While we wait for OP to explain why he omitted key players and didn't back up his data, here are the numbers we know:

Cities with most NFL players
Miami, FL - 25
Houston, TX - 17
Fort Lauderdale, FL - 15
Cincinnati, OH - 14
Pittsburgh, PA - 12
Washington, DC - 12
Cleveland, OH - 11
Las Vegas, NV - 11
New Orleans, LA - 11
Tampa, FL - 11
Birmingham, AL - 10
Dallas, TX - 10
Detroit, MI - 10
Los Angeles, CA - 10

The gap between Miami and #2 is bigger than the gap between #2 and [URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 5[/URL] . And Fort Lauderdale is third.

The majority of those guys are three star players or below on 247 composite. That includes some of the best players on the planet: Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, Geno Atkins, Xavier Rhodes and Lavonte David.

"Meat" should give a call to Richt and tell him that he believes a myth. Because Richt has said the same thing about South Florida 3-stars numerous times. The players are just better down here, on average, from top to bottom.

https://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/he...ies-producing-most-nfl-talent-right-now-35444

Those 3* or below composite players have been the reason Miami has won 5 championships. That is the difference and what pushed Miami over the top. When you mix those diamonds in the rough with the 4-5* kids good recruiters sign, it's effing deadly. Saban can't match this. Smart can't match this. I don't care how many #1 classes they sign.

Miami has never in it's history been a program that's signed top classes like Bama, OU, FSU, Florida, Texas, USC, etc. Miami at it's best in recruiting is in that 5-12 range. The U has had classes with a lot of 3* Tri-County kids that dominate.

Ya'll don't know your history.

 

[Meat]

OP is making up numbers.

Went back and looked at the 247 composite and very quickly found two kids from 2012 class who have already collected NFL checks (Isidora and Waters) and one from 2014 headed there (Jackson). None of them appeared on OP's list.

It's also funny that he started in 2012, because we sent three composite 3*s to the pros in 2011 (Perryman, Dorsett and Armbrister) and three in 2010 (Hurns, Feliciano and Walford). I didn't scrutinize the rest, but there is clearly some selective math going on.

And the obvious answer is that Golden was getting the wrong three stars. We discussed it on this board for years. Here are some guys off the top of my head who were 247 composite three stars during that time period:

Lamar Jackson
Quinton Flowers
Quincy Wilson
Eddie Jackson
Skai Moore
Fabian Moreau
Steve Ishmael
James Burgess (16 tackles a couple weeks ago against Jaguars)

There are many more.

I was also going to go back and show how all the local south florida gurus around here were talking up guys like Trayone Gray, Tyre Brady, James King, Walter Tucker, Mike Smith, and Sheldrick Redwine, etc.... but I don't want to call anyone out.

First of all, the "South Florida gurus" were the ones crying about the guys Golden didn't offer. Quincy Wilson, Flowers, Reshard Fenton, Skai Moore, Isiah McKenzie, Reginald Bain, Denver Kirkland. Those guys turned out pretty well, don't you think?

Second, let's talk about that list. Tyre Brady was a Biletnikoff semifinalist, so great example by you. I yelled for Redwine to get a late offer, and all he did was start for a Top 10 team while an out-of-state 4* like Kiy Hester left town with his tail between his legs. I never even heard of James King and Walter Tucker until we started recruiting them. Mike Smith blew out his knee as a HS senior and hasn't consistently been the same player. The one I'll give you is Trayone Gray. I thought he'd be great. But sometimes you can't measure what's in between the ears. South Florida guys are usually better there, which is why so many are in the league.

The key to recruiting at Miami is simple. Get the top-ranked South Florida kids. Get the best of the underrated local guys. Sprinkle in out-of-staters if you think they'll be first rounders. Richt and especially Diaz understand this, so I'm not concerned that OP doesn't.

Not making up numbers at all. Why would I? But you're right that I was sloppy at 3am last night and did leave Herb Waters and Danny Isadora off the typed list (Isadora does show up on the spreadsheet of drafted players though, and Waters wasn't drafted). Leaving them off was an oversight. It wasn't intentional. I think it was a "cut and paste" thing because those are literally the two first names on the list (I also used 247). But thanks for pointing it out. I've added them now and double-checked the rest of the list, feel free to do the same if you have doubts.

The larger point still is true - there are way too many "scrubs" who were South Florida three stars, who the locals did talk up quite a bit.

I started in 2012 because that was exactly 5 years ago. I didn't want to go back 10 years because the scouting services have gotten a lot better since they awarded us the #1 class back in 2008. But five years seems like a good amount of data. Seems reasonable?

There are plenty of 3* from Florida who get drafted. You can see them on the chart in the OP. The thing is, there are something like 170 3-star players that come out of Florida every year! So even if you have a handful that are drafted, so many more are not. That's what trips people up. If you just look at a list of players drafted, you'll see a lot of 3-stars and think to yourself that stars don't matter. But when you consider that there are 10 times as many 3-stars as 4 stars, then you realize that the hit rate on 3-stars is much much lower.

Yes, and the South Florida guys around here have gotten a few right. But there were many more who they got wrong. There were absolutely people talking up James King and Walter Tucker. Tucker was supposed to have all-world speed, and so forth.

 

[Meat]

Link all your sources please.

Each and every one.

There’s something in science and mathematics called peer review, meathead.

Maybe you’ve heard of it. Maybe you haven’t.

But if you’re going to come on here and posit a theory and then confirm it with statistics, without sourcing these statistics, there is no way to confirm the validity of your conclusions.

And by the way, it doesn’t take a Rhodes scholar for anyone to agree that as a general rule, there is absolute correlation with highly rated classes and better performance over time. That’s basically indisputable.

But there are some specific claims you are making which can’t be confirmed with selective and unconfirmed and unreviewed data, as D$ so clearly illustrates above.

Buddy, ask nicely! This ain't a ******* academic journal, *******.

Here are your sources, dip****.

Use the 247 composite to get the list of players.


To see the number of 3-stars nationally, you can verify it two ways: 1st is

To see the number of 3-stars drafted nationally, you can review this article: https://247sports.com/Article/Do-recruiting-rankings-matter-The-2017-NFL-Draft-says-yes-52571897

And here is a nice picture from the article in case you don't read good:



Breakdown of high school player's recruiting stars: https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ecruiting-stars-rankings-high-school-football

And a picture for the ones who don't read good



To get the number of FLORIDA 3-stars, go to the same source (Rivals 2016) and filter by state.



And to get the draft data, the link to the table is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft

To get the player's hometown, you have to click on their name on the table above, and it shows the high school here:



And to get their star rankings, you have to go one-by-one on 247.

 

[Meat]

By the way, you have to use Rivals to get the raw numbers of 3/4/5 stars because 247 doesn't give you this information. Would have been nice to use the same service the whole way through, but what can you do.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

I said please you meatheaded, number-manipulating lying sack of smegma.

Your entire thesis has been rendered invalid by use of selective data and lack of consistency.

You came to a conclusion beforehand and cherry picked the numbers and date ranges that supported your conclusion.

D$ destroys the entire thesis with the NFL data

 

[Dwinstitles]

I believe a three star is a three star especially if u watch the film......the only thing that u cant predict is how a kid is going to grow physically and keep there athletic ability. Miami doesnt have to find a three star oos just look home and u mayfind a starwhich is rare nowadays

 

[Meat]

I said please you meatheaded, number-manipulating lying sack of smegma.

Your entire thesis has been rendered invalid by use of selective data and lack of consistency.

You came to a conclusion beforehand and cherry picked the numbers and date ranges that supported your conclusion.

D$ destroys the entire thesis with the NFL data

I love how you're taking this so personally. Get it together, pal.

Facts and data don't lie. You don't have to believe what I say - I don't really give a ****. I'm just busting a popular myth that South Florida produces better 3 stars than elsewhere. I laid out my methodology, all my sources, and laid it bare for the world to see.

You can dig in to it on your own time and reach your own conclusions. Or, you can blindly believe that South Florida > everywhere else, while ignoring all the hard numbers.

Doesn't make the least bit of difference to me.

 

[Meat]

Nope.

The facts show that a 3-star is a 3-star, anywhere. Period.

Here's the full list of 3-stars from South Florida that we have signed since 2012 (not including current freshmen since it's too early to know what they'll become.)

Hopefully this kills the myth of the "underrated" South Florida 3-star. You've got a couple great players on here, and a whole lot of scrubs.


All South Florida 3-stars signed by Miami since 2012:

JaWand Blue
Vernon Davis
Larry Hope
Gabriel Terry
Josh Witt
David Thompson
Walter Tucker
Mike Smith
Ryan Mayes
Trayone Gray
Tyre Brady
Marques Gayot
Nick Linder
Terry McCray
James King
Terrance Henley
Sheldrick Redwine
Robert Knowles
RJ McIntosh
Darrell Langham





Here you can see all players from the state of Florida taken in the 2017 draft. There were a total of 13 three-stars taken, and there were a total of 179 draft-eligible three stars in the state of Florida that year.

That means that 7.2% of Florida 3-stars were selected for the draft.

In the entire United States, 90 3-stars were picked out of 1202 total that were eligible.

That means that nationally, 7.4% of all three-stars that were selected for the draft.



View attachment 56608

Florida 3-stars = everyone else's 3-stars.

The quality of Miami coaching figures too heavily in this exercise (it has been pretty bad). It should be % of all SoFla 3* drafted vs % of national 3* drafted. Interesting stats tho.

It's not possible to look this up by just South Florida... can only be done on the state level.

We can see that 7.2% of Florida 3-stars are drafted, vs 7.4% of National 3-stars though.

And I can tell you just by browsing the list, that North/Central Florida are NOT dragging the average down. I see a lot of Venice, Apopka, St Petersburg, Sarasota etc next to the 3*'s on the list.

Be careful [MENTION=15255]Meat[/MENTION] you don't wanna go burstin bubbles now, do ya?

It's the right thing to do. It's like doing squats or going for a run - hurts at the time but in the end, it's good for you.

Miami needs to break out of the cycle we've been in, where we recruit a ton of 3-stars, the fans hype those 3-stars up, Miami loses a few games, people blame X's and O's, rinse and repeat.

Championships are won on the recruiting trail. The fans need to go in to this with clear eyes.

 

[ShadowSpring]

I said please you meatheaded, number-manipulating lying sack of smegma.

Your entire thesis has been rendered invalid by use of selective data and lack of consistency.

You came to a conclusion beforehand and cherry picked the numbers and date ranges that supported your conclusion.

D$ destroys the entire thesis with the NFL data

I love how you're taking this so personally. Get it together, pal.

Facts and data don't lie. You don't have to believe what I say - I don't really give a ****. I'm just busting a popular myth that South Florida produces better 3 stars than elsewhere. I laid out my methodology, all my sources, and laid it bare for the world to see.

You can dig in to it on your own time and reach your own conclusions. Or, you can blindly believe that South Florida > everywhere else, while ignoring all the hard numbers.

Doesn't make the least bit of difference to me.

You definitely did not prove that to be the case. In fact you didn't offer any data that proves anything

 

[Meat]

I said please you meatheaded, number-manipulating lying sack of smegma.

Your entire thesis has been rendered invalid by use of selective data and lack of consistency.

You came to a conclusion beforehand and cherry picked the numbers and date ranges that supported your conclusion.

D$ destroys the entire thesis with the NFL data

I love how you're taking this so personally. Get it together, pal.

Facts and data don't lie. You don't have to believe what I say - I don't really give a ****. I'm just busting a popular myth that South Florida produces better 3 stars than elsewhere. I laid out my methodology, all my sources, and laid it bare for the world to see.

You can dig in to it on your own time and reach your own conclusions. Or, you can blindly believe that South Florida > everywhere else, while ignoring all the hard numbers.

Doesn't make the least bit of difference to me.

You definitely did not prove that to be the case. In fact you didn't offer any data that proves anything

"Prove" is a high bar. The data strongly suggests that South Florida 3* = everyone else's. If you have evidence that South Florida 3-stars are better, and I'm not talking about anecdotes but actual hard data, then please share it with us.

 

[ShadowSpring]

D$ already killed ur thread.

It hilarious you as a supposed Cane fan are arguing against ballas from South Florida. It's not a good look and ur flat wrong.

 

[CanesFan93]

While we wait for OP to explain why he omitted key players and didn't back up his data, here are the numbers we know:

Cities with most NFL players
Miami, FL - 25
Houston, TX - 17
Fort Lauderdale, FL - 15
Cincinnati, OH - 14
Pittsburgh, PA - 12
Washington, DC - 12
Cleveland, OH - 11
Las Vegas, NV - 11
New Orleans, LA - 11
Tampa, FL - 11
Birmingham, AL - 10
Dallas, TX - 10
Detroit, MI - 10
Los Angeles, CA - 10

The gap between Miami and #2 is bigger than the gap between #2 and [URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 5[/URL] . And Fort Lauderdale is third.

The majority of those guys are three star players or below on 247 composite. That includes some of the best players on the planet: Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, Geno Atkins, Xavier Rhodes and Lavonte David.

"Meat" should give a call to Richt and tell him that he believes a myth. Because Richt has said the same thing about South Florida 3-stars numerous times. The players are just better down here, on average, from top to bottom.

https://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/he...ies-producing-most-nfl-talent-right-now-35444

Those 3* or below composite players have been the reason Miami has won 5 championships. That is the difference and what pushed Miami over the top. When you mix those diamonds in the rough with the 4-5* kids good recruiters sign, it's effing deadly. Saban can't match this. Smart can't match this. I don't care how many #1 classes they sign.

Miami has never in it's history been a program that's signed top classes like Bama, OU, FSU, Florida, Texas, USC, etc.Miami at it's best in recruiting is in that 5-12 range. The U has had classes with a lot of 3* Tri-County kids that dominate.

Ya'll don't know your history.

I agree with everything else but what? Some of you guys really need to stop living in the past. Our classes from 1999-2005 were all ranked in the top 10; three top 5 classes btw. Point me to a team that has won big in the past 15 years that has had classes ranked lower than 15th.

 

[ShadowSpring]

While we wait for OP to explain why he omitted key players and didn't back up his data, here are the numbers we know:

Cities with most NFL players
Miami, FL - 25
Houston, TX - 17
Fort Lauderdale, FL - 15
Cincinnati, OH - 14
Pittsburgh, PA - 12
Washington, DC - 12
Cleveland, OH - 11
Las Vegas, NV - 11
New Orleans, LA - 11
Tampa, FL - 11
Birmingham, AL - 10
Dallas, TX - 10
Detroit, MI - 10
Los Angeles, CA - 10

The gap between Miami and #2 is bigger than the gap between #2 and [URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 5[/URL] . And Fort Lauderdale is third.

The majority of those guys are three star players or below on 247 composite. That includes some of the best players on the planet: Antonio Brown, TY Hilton, Geno Atkins, Xavier Rhodes and Lavonte David.

"Meat" should give a call to Richt and tell him that he believes a myth. Because Richt has said the same thing about South Florida 3-stars numerous times. The players are just better down here, on average, from top to bottom.

https://www.chatsports.com/nfl/a/he...ies-producing-most-nfl-talent-right-now-35444

Those 3* or below composite players have been the reason Miami has won 5 championships. That is the difference and what pushed Miami over the top. When you mix those diamonds in the rough with the 4-5* kids good recruiters sign, it's effing deadly. Saban can't match this. Smart can't match this. I don't care how many #1 classes they sign.

Miami has never in it's history been a program that's signed top classes like Bama, OU, FSU, Florida, Texas, USC, etc.Miami at it's best in recruiting is in that 5-12 range. The U has had classes with a lot of 3* Tri-County kids that dominate.

Ya'll don't know your history.

I agree with everything else but what? Some of you guys really need to stop living in the past. Our classes from 1999-2005 were all ranked in the top 10; three top 5 classes btw. Point me to a team that has won big in the past 15 years that has had classes ranked lower than 15th.

Notice how I said 5-12

 

[sebastian91]

The data suggests a correlation (which doesn't equal causation) between stars and being drafted....that's all you can take from that, and I doubt that anyone would argue otherwise (it's common sense, eh? Well, maybe DBC would...). It says nothing about how good a 3 star from Florida is compared to anywhere else, because getting drafted doesn't mean you were a great player at the college level (and vice versa). The analysis here is woefully inadequate to prove the point claimed (even though I think you're right on some level....it's not as easy to fly under the radar as it used to be, since there are many more people out there stalking high school kids and rating them, so the ratings are probably a lot more accurate now than they used to be, too).

Anyway, it's a stupid argument. Recruiting is undeniably a huge part of success on the field, but it's not as simple as that either.

 

[reg]

[MENTION=2]DMoney[/MENTION].........

 

[Meat]

D$ already killed ur thread.

It hilarious you as a supposed Cane fan are arguing against ballas from South Florida. It's not a good look and ur flat wrong.

He pointed out two players I missed and that "killed my thread?"

Ha ha ok buddy. Merry Christmas.

By the way, you know that I added those players to the OP now, right?

Look man, you don't have to believe anything you don't want to believe. The facts are out there for those who are interested in that sort of thing... I'm not here selling anything or trying to bust anyone's bubble. You do you.

 

[Canesvolls]

This seems way to data driven, factual and logical for this board.

 

[jhtheking]

OP is making up numbers.

Went back and looked at the 247 composite and very quickly found two kids from 2012 class who have already collected NFL checks (Isidora and Waters) and one from 2014 headed there (Jackson). None of them appeared on OP's list.

It's also funny that he started in 2012, because we sent three composite 3*s to the pros in 2011 (Perryman, Dorsett and Armbrister) and three in 2010 (Hurns, Feliciano and Walford). I didn't scrutinize the rest, but there is clearly some selective math going on.

And the obvious answer is that Golden was getting the wrong three stars. We discussed it on this board for years. Here are some guys off the top of my head who were 247 composite three stars during that time period:

Lamar Jackson
Quinton Flowers
Quincy Wilson
Eddie Jackson
Skai Moore
Fabian Moreau
Steve Ishmael
James Burgess (16 tackles a couple weeks ago against Jaguars)

There are many more.

I was also going to go back and show how all the local south florida gurus around here were talking up guys like Trayone Gray, Tyre Brady, James King, Walter Tucker, Mike Smith, and Sheldrick Redwine, etc.... but I don't want to call anyone out.

First of all, the "South Florida gurus" were the ones crying about the guys Golden didn't offer. Quincy Wilson, Flowers, Reshard Fenton, Skai Moore, Isiah McKenzie, Reginald Bain, Denver Kirkland. Those guys turned out pretty well, don't you think?

Second, let's talk about that list. Tyre Brady was a Biletnikoff semifinalist, so great example by you. I yelled for Redwine to get a late offer, and all he did was start for a Top 10 team while an out-of-state 4* like Kiy Hester left town with his tail between his legs. I never even heard of James King and Walter Tucker until we started recruiting them. Mike Smith blew out his knee as a HS senior and hasn't consistently been the same player. The one I'll give you is Trayone Gray. I thought he'd be great. But sometimes you can't measure what's in between the ears. South Florida guys are usually better there, which is why so many are in the league.

The key to recruiting at Miami is simple. Get the top-ranked South Florida kids. Get the best of the underrated local guys. Sprinkle in out-of-staters if you think they'll be first rounders. Richt and especially Diaz understand this, so I'm not concerned that OP doesn't.

I mean maybe his stats were wrong but you responded with anecdotal evidence so your post is pretty pointless.

 

[jhtheking]

I said please you meatheaded, number-manipulating lying sack of smegma.

Your entire thesis has been rendered invalid by use of selective data and lack of consistency.

You came to a conclusion beforehand and cherry picked the numbers and date ranges that supported your conclusion.

D$ destroys the entire thesis with the NFL data

Dmoney did not destroy the thesis unless you're dumb as a brick. Dmoney just listed out some people he thinks were 3 stars. Zero actual data.

 

[DMoney]

And a picture for the ones who don't read good

View attachment 56628

To get the number of FLORIDA 3-stars, go to the same source (Rivals 2016) and filter by state.

And to get the draft data, the link to the table is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft

To get the player's hometown, you have to click on their name on the table above, and it shows the high school here:


And to get their star rankings, you have to go one-by-one on 247.

As expected, OP needs to check his math.

You're dividing the three stars selected in the 2017 NFL draft (90) by the number of "draft eligible three stars" (1,202). But those "draft eligible three stars" aren't even draft eligible. By your own chart, they graduated high school in 2016.

If you have the time to do a statistically legitimate year-by-year comparison (with a specific focus on South Florida, instead of Florida generally), be my guest. But don't pass off this half-baked bull**** as data.