Some thoughts on the Duke game after rewatch

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DMoney

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This Canes season has been so exciting that our three-touchdown humiliation of FSU last week seemed boring. The drama was back this weekend, and the Canes came out on top. My thoughts, from an in-person view and rewatch, our below:

- This is one of the best offenses of the past decade. Below is a list of the top offense every season, with some key players and coaches in parenthesis:

2024 Miami- 46.3 PPG
2023 LSU- 43.3 PPG (Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas...

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This is not an average defense. This is a bottom feeder defense. If it was average they wouldn’t be giving up team scoring highs.

I agree the secondary lacks talent but Guidry is getting worked every week. It’s like we go into the game with no gameplan at all, then Guidry waits until halftime to try this or that.

We keep playing the same guys who are getting exposed.
 
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This Canes season has been so exciting that our three-touchdown humiliation of FSU last week seemed boring. The drama was back this weekend, and the Canes came out on top. My thoughts, from an in-person view and rewatch, our below:

- This is one of the best offenses of the past decade. Below is a list of the top offense every season, with some key players and coaches in parenthesis:

2024 Miami- 46.3 PPG
2023 LSU- 43.3 PPG (Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, Jr.)
2022 Tennessee- 44.5 PPG (Josh Heupel, Hendon Hooker, Jaylin Hyatt)
2021 Ohio State- 45.7 PPG (CJ Stroud, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave)
2020 Alabama- 48.5 PPG (Mac Jones, Najee Harris, Devonta Smith)
2019 LSU- 47.2 PPG (Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Jamarr Chase)
2018 Oklahoma- 48.4 PPG (Kyler Murray, Lincoln Riley, Hollywood Brown)
2017 UCF- 46.2 PPG (McKenzie Milton, Scott Frost, TreQuan Smith)
2016 Oklahoma- 43.9 PPG (Baker Mayfield, Joe Mixon, DeDe Westbrook)
2015 Baylor- 46.6 PPG (Art Briles, Russell/Stidham, Corey Coleman)
2014 Baylor- 46.4 PPG (Art Briles, Bryce Petty, Corey Coleman)

Miami is up there with the loaded, trend-setting offenses we all remember. The key -- along with having the best player in the country taking snaps -- is the balance. We are strong and deep at every skill position, we have a mammoth OL, and we can play with both finesse and power. All of that was on display in the second half against Duke.

- Nine games in, the defense is what it is. It's an average to below-average P4 group. In weeks prior, it looked like we were doing too much in the secondary and struggling to communicate. This week, it seemed we kept it very simple and gave Duke a very clear picture of what our safeties were doing. Duke, like California, is a middling offense with limited explosiveness. We made them look comfortable for most of the game.

- An obvious issue is the lack of playoff-caliber talent in the secondary. This is the direct result of poor high school recruiting during the Addae Era. When you get a guy like OJ Frederique or Zaquan Patterson, they look different physically. It is easy to see in the way Frederique moves or the way Patterson strikes. It's hard to get those physical tools in the Portal at defensive back unless you are taking a big character risk. We'll work the Portal hard this offseason, but we really need to solve this problem in high school recruiting.

- Guidry looks to me like he's having trouble adjusting to the lack of talent in the secondary. At Marshall, he had really good corners (relative to the league) and put a lot of responsibility on them. He has to play differently here. The lack of a nickel (which was the only major Portal miss) hurts you at two spots, since Daryl Porter is much more comfortable outside.

- Manny Diaz and Duke's coaching staff did a good job having his team ready to play. They surprised us with tempo down 14-0, they got to favorable matchups (Mauigoa one-on-one with a RB with no safety help), and they played with confidence. Duke is a good spot for him- less pressure, self-starting players, more room to experiment. If he can find a niche recruiting undersized, fast smart guys, I could see him sticking there a while.

- We have the best tight end room in the nation. Elijah Arroyo will be a high pick, Riley Williams is a specimen (watch his inline block on the Fletcher TD and his catch on the next drive), Elija Lofton does everything, and Cam McCormick is proving doubters wrong as a valuable role player.

- Not much more needs to be said about Xavier Restrepo. He's an all-time great. One thing I did want to highlight is his short-area burst- he's much more like a running back than your average slot receiver. His cut upfield on the third TD was an explosive move.

- Restrepo deserves the attention, but Jacolby George played one of his better games. He's the best example of Mario's player development. I don't think he makes it under the prior culture.

- I feel terrible for Jadais Richard. Hoping for good news and, if not, a clean rehab process.

- It's hard to know the full story without being in the building, but it sure seems like Kiko Mauigoa is playing downhill less this year. On a per game basis, his TFLs are down almost 40% and his sacks are down 61%. He's at his best creating havoc.

- True freshman LB Bobby Pruitt got into the game early on third down. I love the move- we need to get faster there and better in coverage. Pruitt has a nose for the ball and is one of the best athletes on defense.

- RT Francis Mauigoa was dominant in the run game. There just aren't ACC teams that can handle his size, movement and power. He and Markel Bell will be one of the best tackle duos in the nation next year.

- The crowd wasn't what it needs to be, but it was better than it looked on television. Hope Wake Forest is not another noon game.

- Rueben Bain causes a lot of problems that don't show up in the box score. He caused the Meesh Powell INT with pressure, and he forced a fumble in the fourth by clubbing the OL into Maalik Murphy.

- Booker Pickett looked like he was at a different speed on the fourth quarter sack. Miami feels it hit a home run with the 2024 defensive line class.

- We're 9-0. Florida and FSU are a combined 5-12. Life is good.


Why does Guidry’s first half gameplan consistently blow??? He’s obviously smart by way of his second half adjustments.

I just don’t get how his defense very consistently gets exposed and outschemed to start a game
 
This is not an average defense. This is a bottom feeder defense. If it was average they wouldn’t be giving up team scoring highs.
Bottom-feeder is too strong.

Just looking at the ACC rankings, we're 7th in scoring defense (out of 17 teams) and 1st in total defense (which I think is deceptive, but worth noting).

I'd say average to below-average depending on how we finish. Yesterday was a step backwards against a bad offense.
 
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In offseason I called out many who said 30 point was mark and said that doesnt even move the needle, we had a LEGIT qb with talent and top 10 rankings at every unit, said 40 points was bar and if we cant clear it Dawson needs to be checked. We have past 50+ point multiple times and spread offense has finally arrived in coral gables where pro style bro held us in offense purgatory for 15+ years, imagine the moents we missed forsaking our trendsetting dna by not leading the spread revolution last 20 dam years, teams like clemson might have our trophies in their case. Shame. Salute to Mario for blessing us with Air Raid.

Not sure how nickle is thought of as only miss when a walk on off a terrible defense is best we have at safety after having both prior safeties leave early, we have no one to replace terrible play but a true freshman because there is no one else. Safety was a miss also, heck the whole DB room is basically transfers. We need 5 this year again, lol. We will blow historical offense because we thought nickle was only miss. We can only say that if we have conference caliber play at other spots. Nickle is the 5th guy, we have more problems than that.

Kiko even when playing down hill (which he has had many opportunities) blows and misses tackle, maybe he is shy post surgery or something aint right, the regression is glaring. The numbers bare it out with miss tackle rate and all. Its the same scheme and player but play has fallen beyond recognition.

I dont care what time wake game is, we need more people in their seats prior to game on senior day, Cam and Restrepo need to be sent out the right way..
 
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@DMoney - I am curious what your analysis is on the DLine. Before the season started, I anticipated us getting much more pressure on the QB. Is the coverage so bad that these DL don't have time to get to the QB or is it something else I am missing. Thanks.
We’re getting a lot of pressure but not converting sacks. I think it’s a combination of things. Quarterbacks are comfortable challenging our secondary, Bain missing time, Baron being a little tight at the hips as a finisher, and Mauigoa not repeating his pass rush production from last year.
 
@DMoney - I am curious what your analysis is on the DLine. Before the season started, I anticipated us getting much more pressure on the QB. Is the coverage so bad that these DL don't have time to get to the QB or is it something else I am missing. Thanks.

Malik Murphy was #1 in the country in avg drop back time, well under 2.5 seconds


The few times he held it longer he made very poor decisions. I would expect pressures and sacks to tick up the remaining 3 games
 
Kiko isn't playing downhill because teams aren't running against us. Teams know they can torch us in the backend so he's having to play back, which has eliminated him from being able to play instantly
Every single person in the stadium knew that pass was going at Kiko for 40 yards. EVERY SINGLE PERSON.

Stevie Wonder heard gasps and was able to immediately know Godry had Kiko exposed by Manny Diaz. Said: "I knew it #1, #7 or #25, but the exasperation made it clear it was again #1 pre-snap"
 
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