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QB NIL market value

Odysseus

Odysseus

Freshman
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Dec 18, 2013
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I found this on the neighbor site, is this legit, ain't no way I'm paying 3 mil for Arch

Screenshot_20220511-212835_Chrome.webp
 
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Is tvd getting that kind of deal?
Based on that chart he’s worth at least a million
The only concern I have with nil is that the incoming nil are just gonna get bigger and bigger the previous guys are gonna get jealous. It’s like first round draft picks before the rookie cap
 
Arch isn’t neessarilty worth $3 million per year as a player. But his NIL may be worth that much. Coming into college he is as well known a football player as anyone I can remember. Literally all of college football and most of its die hard fans know him. Keep in mind that the N in NIL is for Name and he has the biggest name in the sport of football. Arch‘s name is literally more valuable than almost anyone playing college football right now. Not that he is a better player but to some businesses his NIL is simply worth a lot of money. Which is how the free market is supposed to work, even if we disagree with the value of him as a player.

Please understand that none of this means he will be a great player. Just that his Name, Image and Likeness value is really high.
 
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It’s an estimate valuation of what they could get, not necessarily exactly what they will or are getting.

NIL is a speculative market right now, so therefore prices will always be higher than the actual return on investment in value because the market hasn’t been set yet. Like I already told yall, this is the beginning of the NIL bubble, which is in the Substitution & Takeoff stage.

The valuation of the NIL market will come down once the Bubble hits Critical stage, which more than likely won’t happen for a couple of seasons, but none of these high numbers will remain the same for prospects over time.

For fans who trip out over NIL every day, do yourself a favor & dust off some of those old Econ books, NIL will not sustain in its current version.
 
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AtlAtty said:
Arch isn’t neessarilty worth $3 million per year as a player. But his NIL may be worth that much. Coming into college he is as well known a football player as anyone I can remember. Literally all of college football and most of its die hard fans know him. Keep in mind that the N in NIL is for Name and he has the biggest name in the sport of football. Arch‘s name is literally more valuable than almost anyone playing college football right now. Not that he is a better player but to some businesses his NIL is simply worth a lot of money. Which is how the free market is supposed to work, even if we disagree with the value of him as a player.

Please understand that none of this means he will be a great player. Just that his Name, Image and Likeness value is really high.
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That was going to be my question... is this how much they expect to recruit them or their earning potential? I don't think anyone is paying him that kind of money per year to go to school and he wouldn't need it anyway since his family is already insanely wealthy and he would be better suited to going to the team that will prepare him best for the NFL.

I assume that he will also be able to do some commercials with the rest of the family.
 
The_U_ said:
Could have sworn I heard nico signed for around 2 mil a year on a podcast.
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I believe it was an 'up to' contract with the details not being out there about what is likely. Kinda like having a 8 year NFL contract w/o knowing the guaranteed money.
 
Liberty City El said:
It’s an estimate valuation of what they could get, not necessarily exactly what they will or are getting.

NIL is a speculative market right now, so therefore prices will always be higher than the actual return on investment in value because the market hasn’t been set yet. Like I already told yall, this is the beginning of the NIL bubble, which is in the Substitution & Takeoff stage.

The valuation of the NIL market will come down once the Bubble hits Critical stage, which more than likely won’t happen for a couple of seasons, but none of these high numbers will remain the same for prospects over time.

For fans who trip out over NIL every day, do yourself a favor & dust off some of those old Econ books, NIL will not sustain in its current version.
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@Liberty City El -Scholar
 
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jsy said:
Is tvd getting that kind of deal?
Based on that chart he’s worth at least a million
The only concern I have with nil is that the incoming nil are just gonna get bigger and bigger the previous guys are gonna get jealous. It’s like first round draft picks before the rookie cap
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I don't even believe in NIL value for incoming freshman. Unless a kid has made a name for himself nationally, this business of NIL has turned to just "pay-for-pay" value. What NIL value does an incoming freshman have for marketing to a business? How is that valued for a kid who hasn't played a down of college football?

Below is the Coach Hayes Football Show on NIL with guest Juan Proano at 35:45. Juan has a company that helps players get and improve their NIL market value. He explains what NIL is and how value is calculated. He also explains how players can be taken advantage of.


What really bothers me is everyone just talking about college players and high school recruits as free agents with NIL being the trading currency. You see it here, David Lake and Gaby on 247, as well as other media outlets talking about what it will cost to get player X, Y, Z. Everyone is just referring to a player as an NIL price tag to obtain his services. That is "pay for play" which is an NIL violation. It's what a lot of schools are getting away with. That's not NIL. However, the media is just jumping in changing the narrative of what NIL is supposed to be and calling "pay for play" NIL. It's not. John Ruiz has provided the model for how NIL should work.

I say the schools are responsible because they are the one's that approve the deals with the collectives whose sole purpose is to pay players to join their team.

If schools continue to use NILs to "buy recruits", current players are going to want better deals just like Wong did when he found out Pack got a huge deal. Pack's deal was justified and Wong really had no case because Pack's on court play earned him All Big 12 1st team which improved his social marketing value. What if Pack was a high school recruit that got paid $400k per year? When it's "pay for play" with no real market value, other players are going to demand more money or they will leave because you have just established the NIL as "pay for play" from which the proven players expect more than some unproven incoming freshmen.

I wish the NCAA would pass rules banning collectives from participating in NILs and companies with less than at least one year in business. That would at least force legit companies to throw money away if they just want "pay for play" with no value returned to their businesses. I think most legit companies are not going to throw millions of dollars at an unproven high school kid with no market value to their company other than the few hundred to few thousand of social media followers.
 
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jsy said:
Is tvd getting that kind of deal?
Based on that chart he’s worth at least a million
The only concern I have with nil is that the incoming nil are just gonna get bigger and bigger the previous guys are gonna get jealous. It’s like first round draft picks before the rookie cap
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this is spot on!! ^^^^^^
 
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Liberty City El said:
It’s an estimate valuation of what they could get, not necessarily exactly what they will or are getting.

NIL is a speculative market right now, so therefore prices will always be higher than the actual return on investment in value because the market hasn’t been set yet. Like I already told yall, this is the beginning of the NIL bubble, which is in the Substitution & Takeoff stage.

The valuation of the NIL market will come down once the Bubble hits Critical stage, which more than likely won’t happen for a couple of seasons, but none of these high numbers will remain the same for prospects over time.

For fans who trip out over NIL every day, do yourself a favor & dust off some of those old Econ books, NIL will not sustain in its current version.
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I certainly agree but all it will take is one of the guys having a Trevor Lawrence type Freshmen year and it could open the flood gates.
 
Odysseus said:
The rest of the prices seem reasonable per year
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Prices?? NIL is about marketing value. Everyone's just skipping marketing and transforming it into the market of buying players.

If college were pro sports, you would be taking the player's endorsement deals as salary. There is a clear distinction between salary and endorsements. In college, the scholarship is the salary. NIL is the endorsement deal. That's literally what NIL represents.

What's transpiring are several schools using NIL to buy players. That's illegal although it's rampant. We shouldn't normalize it. Doing so, legitimizes what Tennessee, TamU, Texas and other "collectives" are doing.

The schools are not involved in making the NIL deals. However, they are the ones responsible for approving them, so the schools should be held accountable for allowing these so called "collectives" to buy players.
 
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The_U_ said:
Could have sworn I heard nico signed for around 2 mil a year on a podcast.
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There's a difference between value (from OP's screenshot) and what he got actually paid.

Assuming that the screenshot is calculated correctly, Nico got overpaid.
 
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