Post Season Initial Thoughts

[FL Cane]

Another season is in the books for the Canes. Here are my thoughts on this season and where we go from here.

Goals

Coming into this season, there were six goals that were generally set for this team across the board. They can be summarized as such:

1. Double-Digit Win Regular Season
2. ACC Championship Appearance
3. ACC Championship
4. CFP Appearance
5. CFP Game Win
6. CFP Natty

For me, only 1-5 ever seemed reasonable. Nevertheless, this team only accomplished one out to the above six goals. Mario talks a lot about being results oriented. Well, the results are clear: the season was a failure, even if there was progress in terms of more wins compared to Mario's first two years.

Program Trajectory

• I said before the season that the bare minimum acceptable record for the regular season was 10-2. Well, we went 10-2, but man has 10-2 never felt so hollow. This team started off the season 9-0 only to lose 3 out of its last 4 games, miss the CFP, and lose to Iowa ******* State in the PopTart Bowl.
• There was progress*** this season in the win column. In the past three years Miami has gone from 5 --> 7 --> 10 wins. At most programs, that would be solid. Here though, it's simply not enough, especially with the talent that this team has had.
• Miami was competitive in all its games this year. We lost by margins of 5, 4, and 1. This is continuing a trend from 2023, where we lost by margins of 3, 10, 14, 7, 7, and 7. The past two years, we have lost games by an average of 6 points. This is really where you can see our deficiencies in game day coaching. Look at our nine losses over the last two years, and you'll likely find 1-2 crucial coaching decisions that, in retrospect, either cost us the game or made a situation worse.
• There was a clear path to making a big jump as a program in Year 3. I won't speculate on our 2025 team and how they will pan out as the roster is still in flux. Nevertheless, it's unclear to me whether this program is on the rise or plateauing.

Where This Season Went Right

• Cam Ward was sensational this year. An all-time great cane, record setter, and top to bottom great leader. He will be dearly missed, and I wish we would've had him for more than just this one season. We can't thank him enough for what he did. The man singlehandedly took this team from 6-6/7-5 to 10 wins.
• Damien Martinez was a great addition to this team, and had a solid year. Another great leader who'll be remembered fondly through the years.
• Xavier Restrepo proved that hard work pays off. Not only a great leader, but someone who genuinely bled orange and green and always did his best to elevate the program. X had a lot of great accomplishments here, I only hope people will remember those instead of the fumble against Syracuse.
• Hats of to Alex Mirabal, as Miami has one of the elite OLs in the country again. This was a unit that pushed around nearly everyone it played, and gave Cam Ward all of the time in the world. This unit will continue to be a strength for this team moving forward.
• Hats of to the RB room. Damien Martinez, Mark Fletcher, Jordan Lyle, and Ajay Allen were arguably the best RB room in the ACC and a top room in the country. Fletch and Lyle are gonna be one of the best 1-2 punch RB duos in the country come next year.
• Hats of the WR room. We've said a lot about X, but Jacolby George was solid this year. Sam Brown had some flashes, Isaiah Horton would've been a legit #1 WR for us next year, and the young guys like Jojo Trader are showing flashes. All in all, this will be a solid unit moving forward.
• Borregales, need a say more. All time great kicker here as consistent as they come.
• Hats of to the TE Room. Old Man Cam started off the season with a great TD against the Gator and was solid all year.. Elijah Arroyo showed up to his full potential and will be a factor on Sunday's.
• Our best coach/coordinator this year was, without a doubt, Shannon Dawson. Yes, there were moments where the play calling wasn't there and it felt like he didn't have a feel for the drive/moment. Nevertheless, he put together the best offense in the country, and his unit was never the reason we lost a game (except maybe for GT, but that's marginal considering how bad the D was).
• This team had an elite championship level offense. This was arguably the best Miami offense since the 2002 Canes. Unfortunately, where this season went right was completely derailed by where it went wrong, as I note below.

Where This Season Went Wrong

• In the history of Canes football, there are names that elicit an almost universal negative reaction from fans. Two names that immediately come to mind are Patrick Nix and Mark D'Onofrio. After this year, one more name will be added: Lance Guidry.
• When Guidry was hired, there was a lot of fanfare. This was the guy who put together a defense that propelled G5 Marshall to beat the mighty Notre Dame Fighting Irish. With a coach who knew how to do more with less paired with Miami talent, what could go wrong? Unfortunately everything did.
• Our defense consistently struggled to get aligned play to play. We were constantly out of position and looked straight up lost.
• Our defense was - almost literally - stunted to death. If at first you don't succeed, try the same insanity again until it works was the motto for this defensive scheme.
• Our DL, a strength coming into this year, was almost always neutralized by opposing O's on scheme alone. We were always a missed tackle or a second late from stopping a big/chunk play. It was extremely frustrating to watch, especially with the talent up front.
• Our DB group was among the worst I've ever seen fielded here. Other than OJ, none of the other DBs would start at any other decent P4 school. Chevis Jackson seems like a nice guy, but he should not be at Miami next season. When we whiffed on DB in the 2024 portal we knew it wasn't ideal, but never could we have imagined that it would cost us the season.
• Our S group was among the worst we've had in a very long time. Completely unplayable at times, and subpar most of the time.
• Our LB group was average at best. I think Kiko has been a great leader and Cane, but I've never seen a player regress to the level he did this year. The 2023 and 2024 versions of him were complete opposites of each other.
• Our ST was a complete disaster top to bottom. A unit that squandered positive momentum routinely and put this team in legitimately terrible positions.
• If I had to grade our three units, I'd grade them as follows:
  • Offense: A+
  • Defense: Something worse than F
  • ST: C- (A+ for Borregales F for everyone else)
• This was an incredibly unbalanced team. Elite offense, horrific defense and terrible ST. That's all on coaching, development, and personnel management.
• Speaking of which, our personnel management was GOD AWFUL this year. There were moments where we seemed to rotate just for the sake or rotating or sticking to the script. Need a first on third/fourth and short? Lets bring in our TR FR RB instead of the two upperclassmen power backs that consistently gain 3-4 per carry at minimum. Need a first on third and mid? Let's rotate out our two best possession receivers and put the ball in Sam Brown's hands. Consistently, time and time again, this coaching staff did not put the best players on the field for the moment.
• I don't need to say more about this than has already been said on this board, but gameday coaching decisions arguably cost us two games.

Not Getting our Bang for our Buck

We're three years into the Cristobal Era, with the highest paid coach in Canes History at $8M a year. Here's where he compares to all our coaches going back to Randy.

Here's their overall records.

Here are their records against AP Top 25 teams over the same first three season period.

Here are their records in the ACC over the same first three season period.

Here are their records against teams that finished the season with 6 losses or more.

The realization here is pretty clear: Mario is underperforming all of his predecessors. For $8M a year, he is not getting the job done plain and simple. I anticipate that he has another 2 years before the heat really turns up (if he doesn't turn things around) and 3 years of seriously being relieved. We'll see what happens, but the benefit of the doubt is over. Three years in, he hasn't gotten it done.

Next Steps

• Mario needs to bring in the best available DC in the country to coach this unit, and give them full autonomy in filling out the defensive staff. Make the guy the highest paid DC in the country, do whatever it takes. Because the only way Mario will ever win anything here is as a CEO with elite/borderline elite coordinators.
• Lance Guidry needed to be dismissed weeks ago, but there's no time like the present. I understand Mario's style is to let outgoing coordinators find a stop before announcing their departure, but some moments call for a decisive act and message. Mario should've relieved Guidry after the Syracuse game with one clear message: what happened was unacceptable and can never happen again. Instead, he let him coach in the bowl game and our D blew another winnable game.
• We need a portal QB ASAP. I like Emory Williams as a person and leader. He won over that locker room in 2023 and is a very hard worker. However, what we saw yesterday shows he cannot be our starting QB in 2025. He doesn't work through his progressions, the game moves too fast for him, and he routinely has passes batted down. Going into the 2025 season with a QB room of Emory, Judd, and TR FR Nickell would be a disaster. At that point, run Nickell for the whole year with the goal of a big 2026 season. I'd rather go 7-5/8-4 with Nickell and a run heavy offense then the same or worse record with Emory. And yes, I think Nickell would beat our Emory and Judd in the spring.

All in all, as I said in my post yesterday, I believe that Mario will never take us to the CFP Natty or win one. I hope he proves me wrong, but nothing I've seen these past three years shows me anything other than a coach that's set in his ways and won't adapt to win the future. I'll always be a fan, but one with the proper expectations moving forward.