It’s this. The home run or nothing mentality has invaded all levels of baseball.Emphasis on launch angle and looking to smoke a ball even with two strikes.
Emphasis on launch angle and looking to smoke a ball even with two strikes.
You may not like the aesthetics (I sure don't) but it's hard to disagree with the math. The most efficient way to score the most runs is to hit the most homeruns.It’s this. The home run or nothing mentality has invaded all levels of baseball.
Who said it was a bad thing??Why is that a bad thing?
Ted Williams was a big proponent of launch angle.
You may not like the aesthetics (I sure don't) but it's hard to disagree with the math. The most efficient way to score the most runs is to hit the most homeruns.
Same as with the 3 pointer in basketball and the HUNH/Spread offense in football.
The problem, though, is that EVERY guy thinks he is a home run hitter. So while you're trying to hit it 600 feet, you're actually batting .210 and not helping your team with your six home runs.You may not like the aesthetics (I sure don't) but it's hard to disagree with the math. The most efficient way to score the most runs is to hit the most homeruns.
Same as with the 3 pointer in basketball and the HUNH/Spread offense in football.
You may not like the aesthetics (I sure don't) but it's hard to disagree with the math. The most efficient way to score the most runs is to hit the most homeruns.
As was stated, I agree re "fan experience." But unless the ball is deadened or every major league team pulls a Camden Yards - at the major league level, the benefits (of the "homerun or nothing mentality") will continue to outweigh the risks.No one disagreed with the math. But it makes for a bad fan experience. At the MLB level, fewer people are watching because it's boring to watch 25 strikeouts while a dude can't put the ball in play to score a runner from 3rd and one out.
Interestingly, there is a stronger correlation between OBP and runs scored than there is between home runs and runs scored in MLB over the last 40 years. Same is true for doubles.
I think it's unfair to only look at the last 8-10 years since everyone has the same philosophy. That's like having 30 NFL teams run the veer and then when a veer team wins the Super Bowl, "see, the veer works". I purposely included the last 40 years in order to include different mindsets. When teams hit .89 home runs per game (1993) they scored 4.6 runs. When they hit 1.22 home runs per game (2021), they scored 4.53 runs.As was stated, I agree re "fan experience." But unless the ball is deadened or every major league team pulls a Camden Yards - at the major league level, the benefits (of the "homerun or nothing mentality") will continue to outweigh the risks.
Okay - now do the last 8? 10? (you know, around the time when "launch angle" became a talking point). I did 2021, and the results were... mixed. Houston scored the most runs, had the highest obp and only the 9th most homers - point wander. Tampa scored the second most runs, hit the 5th most homers but had only the 11th best obp - point AJ. There are a few other outliers, both ways, but most of the time the 3 tracked pretty evenly.
Again, I agree with the tenet - get on base more, score more runs. I always thought that was the math the HYP nerds who have infiltrated every front office were using, but it seems like something has changed. I guess it comes down to whether it is easier (or more efficient) to teach a player to hit for more power or to get on base more? The people with the money (most of them, anyway) seem to have made their decision. As was told to me (by one of those HYP nerds in a front office) - if you're only going to get one hit in an inning, it better be a homerun.
No one disagreed with the math. But it makes for a bad fan experience. At the MLB level, fewer people are watching because it's boring to watch 25 strikeouts while a dude can't put the ball in play to score a runner from 3rd and one out.
I appreciate the banter.I think it's unfair to only look at the last 8-10 years since everyone has the same philosophy. That's like having 30 NFL teams run the veer and then when a veer team wins the Super Bowl, "see, the veer works". I purposely included the last 40 years in order to include different mindsets. When teams hit .89 home runs per game (1993) they scored 4.6 runs. When they hit 1.22 home runs per game (2021), they scored 4.53 runs.
I agree with your last paragraph that front-office guys are demanding it. I wonder if some of it has to do with the short attention spans of youth and feeling the need to get their attention. The high school players I know don't watch games, but they love highlights. And the RBI ground out to second doesn't make it onto Tiktok.
Great discussion though!
HarvardYalePrincetonWhat is HYP?