If he really is the feature back, I say slightly over. We know OT will get carries, and we know Duke will be in the mix somehow, but like duppy mentioned about the YPC is what get's him everytime.
If he were to get and sustain an ungodly 30 carries a game(won't happen) I say he's way over, but at the number of carries he will realistically get for his running style, waay over is out of the question, and slightly over even seems optimistic.