Mario Recruiting vs Prior Coaches - 2025

TwentySix

Defund the Game Managers
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Started tracking this when the "3Stario" thing started getting tossed around a couple of years ago and some people were trying to rewrite history to say our recruiting had always been at this level. Seems like this year is likely wrapped up (though I wouldn't be shocked if someone like Wiley jumped into one of these tiers as final rankings come out). All of the below is based on the 247 Composite rankings. Also, the point of this wasn't to sunshine pump or mope, just was curious what the trends would look like.

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This year was a massive disappointment. I don't think anyone would disagree. No top 50 players and only 1 top 100 is brutal, especially coming off such a successful season and having a coach brought in for roster construction. We can't have another year in the 12-15 range with a coach who isn't an X's and O's savant. That being said, I do think the stacking of top 250 talent across the board over the past 4 years is encouraging. Depth is important. Both to be able to withstand injuries and also create discomfort so there isn't complacency (hopefully one day we won't be playing receivers that have the self-control of a 5 year old, but I digress)

We've signed roughly the same amount of top 50, 100, 150, and 200 players in Mario's 4 years as we did in Richt and Diaz's six years combined (6:7, 14:16, 26:23, 35:36). There will always be misses, but it's a numbers game and having more at bats leads to more hits.

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These numbers, to me, are more an indictment of our prior recruiting efforts than anything. Mario has been here for 4 years with one being a last minute transition class. To have already signed more than 50% the amount of top 150 and 200 players as we did in the 13 years prior to him showing up is not some great indicator of his recruiting prowess, it's inexcusable from prior staffs.

Have we been more talented than the majority of teams we've played in the past 10-15 years? Sure. But when we signed an average of less than 4 top 150 players per year over that time span, we haven't had as much of an advantage as public perception would lead you to believe.

I think this year showed everyone just how much high level depth matters. The UGAs and Bamas of the world don't have the same level of high end depth that they have because of NIL and the portal, and they all of a sudden are losing to Vandy and Oklahoma and find themselves in dogfights with Kentucky and Georgia Tech. If next year's class is more in line with 2025 than '23 and '24, we have a problem. But I think it's also okay to acknowledge the improvement we're seeing in the number of high level recruits we're getting in the building.

Anyway. This is probably interesting to exactly zero people but I was bored and after updating it I figured I'd share.
 
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It is an interesting read.

Thanks for doing this.
No worries. Like I said, it was really the rewriting of prior years that made me curious. The reality is we did not recruit the way people act like we did for over a decade. We had a couple of teams with real talent (2013 in particular ****es me off) but we haven’t been wasting the amount of high end talent that the national narrative would lead you to believe.

We’ve had some dudes over the years, but the truth of the matter is it’s really difficult to win consistently when you don’t have depth. Unless you have a game breaker of a QB, it’s hard to win 10 games when you’re recruiting like every other mid-level ACC team outside of a player or two that bumps you up the rankings. Even with a game breaker qb it’s hard. It’s the difference in USC going 7-5 with Caleb Williams vs us going 10-2 with Cam.

We’re on the right track imo, the question will now become can we not do the talent wasting that people have claimed we’ve always done now that we actually have a talented roster.
 
Also just as a reference point I took a look at Bama’s top 250 signees over the same 13 year period. While we had 84 (less than 7 per year), they had 222 (more than 17 per year). Mario has brought in more than 9 per year, and I think realistically we need to be in that 10-14 range.

We’re never going to recruit like Saban did, but just to show the gap in what we were doing.
 
Anyway. This is probably interesting to exactly zero people but I was bored and after updating it I figured I'd share.
I found it interesting and it does put some things in perspective, but I think most of the board's concerns are:

1. Mario was brought in specifically to recruit at a high level and was given a lot of money to do so and while the results are better (in some ways), they still aren't what was expected (especially this year)
2. Despite the higher recruiting, the team continues to play to the level of their competition
3. Despite getting more highly rated recruits overall, there continue to be entire position groups where we have struggled and are completely lacking.
- One could argue that Mario had to overcome prior recruiting failures particularly at certain positions, but 1) he just wrapped up year 3 and 2) he focuses so heavily on certain groups at the expense of others that positions like CB have ended up worse than they were previously.​
4. The overall recruiting results regressed significantly this year (hopefully an aberration)

So yeah, overall recruiting has improved but there are still glaring holes and the on field results haven't improved as much as people were expecting.
 
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TrumpyCane thinks now you should do how many of those top 250 players are here after 2 years
 
TrumpyCane thinks now you should do how many of those top 250 players are here after 2 years
Yeah this is the more telling stat to me. Like Samson, Jayden Wayne, Citizen, Skinner etc. none of those guys did a thing here so counting them as big ‘wins’ means nothing.
 
I found it interesting and it does put some things in perspective, but I think most of the board's concerns are:

1. Mario was brought in specifically to recruit at a high level and was given a lot of money to do so and while the results are better (in some ways), they still aren't what was expected (especially this year)
2. Despite the higher recruiting, the team continues to play to the level of their competition
3. Despite getting more highly rated recruits overall, there continue to be entire position groups where we have struggled and are completely lacking.
- One could argue that Mario had to overcome prior recruiting failures particularly at certain positions, but 1) he just wrapped up year 3 and 2) he focuses so heavily on certain groups at the expense of others that positions like CB have ended up worse than they were previously.​
4. The overall recruiting results regressed significantly this year (hopefully an aberration)

So yeah, overall recruiting has improved but there are still glaring holes and the on field results haven't improved as much as people were expecting.
Lot of agreement with what you mentioned.

Specific to this year, just a total disappointment. I had pretty much penciled in that we would surpass the Richt/Diaz years in every tier other than potentially top 250.

If the two years prior didn’t meet expectations, I think that’s more an issue of overinflated expectations. Top 4 and top 7 is in line with any reasonable expectations imo. We haven’t won anything since before current high schoolers were born. We play in a second rate conference. To sign the classes we did despite that means something.

We’ve played down to competition but I also think that is part of the lack of talent across the board. Our offense always put up points. I think we would all agree the defensive talent isn’t special, but starting next year Mario’s two full classes will be going into their third and second years. If the talent brought in there doesn’t show itself next year I think a lot of questions will need to be asked. We won 10 games this year playing down. The defense completely let us down but I’m not going to just ignore that progress, personally.
 
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I think we would all agree the defensive talent isn’t special, but starting next year Mario’s two full classes will be going into their third and second years. If the talent brought in there doesn’t show itself next year I think a lot of questions will need to be asked. We won 10 games this year playing down. The defense completely let us down but I’m not going to just ignore that progress, personally.
I hope that you are right - and there is a chance we address some of theses things in the portal - but as of right now it seems like several positions will either take a step back (QB, WR) or not improve as much as needed (Safety, CB).

This year was setup really well for us with the best QB we have had in some time, FSU and Clemson having down years, no one else in the ACC really stepping up and an easy schedule. Not sure how many of those will favor us next year.
 
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Yeah this is the more telling stat to me. Like Samson, Jayden Wayne, Citizen, Skinner etc. none of those guys did a thing here so counting them as big ‘wins’ means nothing.
True, but that happens everywhere. ****, FSU stacked their team with high level recruit flameouts from mighty Bama and Georgia.
 
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True, but that happens everywhere. ****, FSU stacked their team with high level recruit flameouts from mighty Bama and Georgia.
I hear you. But to me however a coach does on NSD really needs to be measured at the start of the season two years later. Who actually made an impact.
 
I hear you. But to me however a coach does on NSD really needs to be measured at the start of the season two years later. Who actually made an impact.
Definitely agree with that. Class rankings only tell a very incomplete story...even moreso in the new reality of easy, endless transferring where lots of kids have no interest in waiting. The whole "stacking chips" concept becomes far less viable when higher level recruits don't have the patience to be the lower chip waiting to be played, and can now up and leave at any time
 
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