Lance Roffers
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The 2018 MLB Draft begins tonight and as usual the draft will impact the way that the 2019 Canes baseball roster will look. Here is a summary of the way the draft works and the players that could be impacted for the Canes; both currently on the roster and incoming recruits.
Each pick within the top-10 rounds is assigned a recommended slot amount. If the player does not sign, that bonus pool slot amount is deducted from the drafting teams overall pool allotment. For this reason, it is very rare for players drafted within the top-10 rounds not to sign a professional contract. Teams gauge the amount it will take to sign a player before each selection by contacting either the player or their representative and discussing the amount required to sign a contract. When a players’ bonus demands do not match up with the team’s bonus pool or their valuation of the player, that player slips to the rounds after the top-10. If a Miami player or recruit is drafted within the top-10 rounds expect them to sign a contract and leave the team.
Current Expected Draft Players:
Jeb Bargfeldt- Jeb is a senior left-handed pitcher for the team and has a chance to be drafted as a possible “senior sign.” As mentioned above, teams have a bonus pool recommendation for their top-10 round picks and one way to maximize the money they have to spend is by taking players with no more college eligibility and paying them far below the bonus pool to save more money to sign other picks. Jeb performed at a very high level in the ACC and some team might give him a chance, while also saving bonus money.
Romy Gonzalez- Romy is a player with quite a bit of draft potential thanks to his arm strength, his athleticism and frame, and his positional versatility.
Draft Outlook: Even though Romy had a down year, expect him to come off the board on the third day of the draft and begin his professional career.
Chance of Returning: Low
Danny Reyes- Reyes is another player with draft potential, as he has solid power and a good approach at the plate. The downside is that he does not really have a defensive home and will be limited to a corner as a right-handed bat.
Draft Outlook: Reyes’ type of player tends to slip in the draft. Throw in injury question marks this season and he is looking at a third day selection if he is selected.
Chance of Returning: I believe Reyes has a better than 50/50 chance to return to Miami and anchor the middle of the lineup as a senior.
Andrew Cabezas- Cabezas came to Miami as a top-500 prospect with Baseball America and enjoyed a solid three years with the team.
Draft Outlook: His combination of sink and velocity from an odd release point make him a solid third-day draft prospect.
Chance of Returning: Low. Expect Cabezas to begin his professional career and sign a contract.
Greg Veliz- Veliz had an injury-shortened season. He has the best arm on the staff as he is able to reach 97 mph with his fastball and shows a quick arm to spin a breaking ball.
Draft Outlook: As a draft-eligible sophomore, Veliz holds more leverage than your average draftee, as he has two potential years of eligibility to buy out, rather than just one. The range in which he is drafted will be almost entirely dependent on how much he will accept to sign. Due to command and injury concerns, expect Veliz to slip to the third-day of the draft.
Chance of Returning: High. I would expect Veliz to return to Miami and compete for the Friday night role in the weekend rotation. Veliz can improve his stock as much as any player on Miami’s roster by returning next season.
Frankie Bartow- The right-handed reliever has experienced a nice career at Miami to this point, having served as both the closer and set-up man.
Draft Outlook: Due to the fact he lacks plus velocity (89-91 mph) and he is seen as a reliever-only, Bartow will most likely not be selected before the third day.
Chance of Returning: Pitchers in this mold are fairly easy to find as draft prospects, so I would not expect Bartow to be offered an especially large bonus. For this reason, I would put his chances of returning at 50/50.
Incoming Recruits:
Triston Casas- Monster prospect who has performed for years and has massive power. I would try him at 3B to see if you could get him to stick, but in any scenario, he is not coming to Miami.
Draft Outlook: Day One.
Chance of Making to Campus: Most assuredly zero.
Slade Cecconi- Here is an interesting case, because there is some speculation that Cecconi may be a difficult sign for professional teams. 6-4 right-handed pitcher with velocity already up to 96, he’s exactly what pro teams are looking for.
Draft Outlook: Major league teams place a value on every prospect and his outlook depends almost entirely on a team believing his talent matches his asking price. If they see him as worth his price, he’s a Day One, early Day Two selection. If the price doesn’t match up, he will fall until Day Three and then things get interesting.
Chance of Making to Campus: Cecconi is one of the high notoriety recruits in college baseball with a chance to make it to campus. I would still put it at less than 50/50, but there is some hope we see him don a Miami uniform next year.
Brennen Davis- Toolsy CF prospect who also is an accomplished basketball player. Professional teams believe there is a ton of potential now that he is solely focused on baseball.
Draft Outlook: Davis is not the current prospect that Cecconi is, but he may go before him due to a combination of price and upside. Day Two pick most likely.
Chance of Making to Campus: Nearly zero.
Jonathan Gates- Gates is a left-handed pitcher who has a fastball that can touch 92 mph. Has developed as a pitcher and really performed well at top showcase events.
Draft Outlook: Expect Gates to hear his name called on third day of the draft.
Chance of Making to Campus: His development has continued to the point that it is a question as to whether or not he makes it to campus. I’d expect him to come to school and improve his stock even more, but it’s not a lock.
Adrian Del Castillo- Very athletic, left-handed hitting catcher enjoyed a breakout senior campaign.
Draft Outlook: Del Castillo has taken himself from a player that teams were unsure if he could stay at catcher, to a player seen as a plus hitting catching prospect with more athleticism than the position usually brings. He could go on Day Two, which would make him likely to sign a contract, or the third day, which would make him a wait-and-see.
Chance of Making to Campus: I believe it is less than 50/50 he makes it campus and I now expect him to sign to play professionally.
I would expect the remaining Miami signees to come to campus (in no particular order):
Bailey Mantilla- LHP
Cal Conley- SS
Jordan Lala- CF
Luis Tuero- 2B
Ryan Wimbush- RHP
Austin Pollak- 2B
Chet Moore- LF
Michael Montes De Oca- 3B
Henry Anthony Villar- SS
Each pick within the top-10 rounds is assigned a recommended slot amount. If the player does not sign, that bonus pool slot amount is deducted from the drafting teams overall pool allotment. For this reason, it is very rare for players drafted within the top-10 rounds not to sign a professional contract. Teams gauge the amount it will take to sign a player before each selection by contacting either the player or their representative and discussing the amount required to sign a contract. When a players’ bonus demands do not match up with the team’s bonus pool or their valuation of the player, that player slips to the rounds after the top-10. If a Miami player or recruit is drafted within the top-10 rounds expect them to sign a contract and leave the team.
Current Expected Draft Players:
Jeb Bargfeldt- Jeb is a senior left-handed pitcher for the team and has a chance to be drafted as a possible “senior sign.” As mentioned above, teams have a bonus pool recommendation for their top-10 round picks and one way to maximize the money they have to spend is by taking players with no more college eligibility and paying them far below the bonus pool to save more money to sign other picks. Jeb performed at a very high level in the ACC and some team might give him a chance, while also saving bonus money.
Romy Gonzalez- Romy is a player with quite a bit of draft potential thanks to his arm strength, his athleticism and frame, and his positional versatility.
Draft Outlook: Even though Romy had a down year, expect him to come off the board on the third day of the draft and begin his professional career.
Chance of Returning: Low
Danny Reyes- Reyes is another player with draft potential, as he has solid power and a good approach at the plate. The downside is that he does not really have a defensive home and will be limited to a corner as a right-handed bat.
Draft Outlook: Reyes’ type of player tends to slip in the draft. Throw in injury question marks this season and he is looking at a third day selection if he is selected.
Chance of Returning: I believe Reyes has a better than 50/50 chance to return to Miami and anchor the middle of the lineup as a senior.
Andrew Cabezas- Cabezas came to Miami as a top-500 prospect with Baseball America and enjoyed a solid three years with the team.
Draft Outlook: His combination of sink and velocity from an odd release point make him a solid third-day draft prospect.
Chance of Returning: Low. Expect Cabezas to begin his professional career and sign a contract.
Greg Veliz- Veliz had an injury-shortened season. He has the best arm on the staff as he is able to reach 97 mph with his fastball and shows a quick arm to spin a breaking ball.
Draft Outlook: As a draft-eligible sophomore, Veliz holds more leverage than your average draftee, as he has two potential years of eligibility to buy out, rather than just one. The range in which he is drafted will be almost entirely dependent on how much he will accept to sign. Due to command and injury concerns, expect Veliz to slip to the third-day of the draft.
Chance of Returning: High. I would expect Veliz to return to Miami and compete for the Friday night role in the weekend rotation. Veliz can improve his stock as much as any player on Miami’s roster by returning next season.
Frankie Bartow- The right-handed reliever has experienced a nice career at Miami to this point, having served as both the closer and set-up man.
Draft Outlook: Due to the fact he lacks plus velocity (89-91 mph) and he is seen as a reliever-only, Bartow will most likely not be selected before the third day.
Chance of Returning: Pitchers in this mold are fairly easy to find as draft prospects, so I would not expect Bartow to be offered an especially large bonus. For this reason, I would put his chances of returning at 50/50.
Incoming Recruits:
Triston Casas- Monster prospect who has performed for years and has massive power. I would try him at 3B to see if you could get him to stick, but in any scenario, he is not coming to Miami.
Draft Outlook: Day One.
Chance of Making to Campus: Most assuredly zero.
Slade Cecconi- Here is an interesting case, because there is some speculation that Cecconi may be a difficult sign for professional teams. 6-4 right-handed pitcher with velocity already up to 96, he’s exactly what pro teams are looking for.
Draft Outlook: Major league teams place a value on every prospect and his outlook depends almost entirely on a team believing his talent matches his asking price. If they see him as worth his price, he’s a Day One, early Day Two selection. If the price doesn’t match up, he will fall until Day Three and then things get interesting.
Chance of Making to Campus: Cecconi is one of the high notoriety recruits in college baseball with a chance to make it to campus. I would still put it at less than 50/50, but there is some hope we see him don a Miami uniform next year.
Brennen Davis- Toolsy CF prospect who also is an accomplished basketball player. Professional teams believe there is a ton of potential now that he is solely focused on baseball.
Draft Outlook: Davis is not the current prospect that Cecconi is, but he may go before him due to a combination of price and upside. Day Two pick most likely.
Chance of Making to Campus: Nearly zero.
Jonathan Gates- Gates is a left-handed pitcher who has a fastball that can touch 92 mph. Has developed as a pitcher and really performed well at top showcase events.
Draft Outlook: Expect Gates to hear his name called on third day of the draft.
Chance of Making to Campus: His development has continued to the point that it is a question as to whether or not he makes it to campus. I’d expect him to come to school and improve his stock even more, but it’s not a lock.
Adrian Del Castillo- Very athletic, left-handed hitting catcher enjoyed a breakout senior campaign.
Draft Outlook: Del Castillo has taken himself from a player that teams were unsure if he could stay at catcher, to a player seen as a plus hitting catching prospect with more athleticism than the position usually brings. He could go on Day Two, which would make him likely to sign a contract, or the third day, which would make him a wait-and-see.
Chance of Making to Campus: I believe it is less than 50/50 he makes it campus and I now expect him to sign to play professionally.
I would expect the remaining Miami signees to come to campus (in no particular order):
Bailey Mantilla- LHP
Cal Conley- SS
Jordan Lala- CF
Luis Tuero- 2B
Ryan Wimbush- RHP
Austin Pollak- 2B
Chet Moore- LF
Michael Montes De Oca- 3B
Henry Anthony Villar- SS
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