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Jai Lucas set to become next men’s basketball coach

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Not gonna slam it and hope I’m dead wrong but I just don’t like hiring a guy with no head coaching experience. Feels like a mid-major move.

Just hope he can still recruit well now that he doesn’t have Duke/Kentucky/Texas brands behind him.
 
boom or bust hire. I like it

If your not going to get somebody already established , then go this route and let him be a star

We are 2 years removed from the final four in a top conference, Miami is a desirable place to play in the CBB world
 
Calinative said:
Grok Evaluation of Jai Lucas
As Miami searches for a new head coach following Jim Larrañaga’s retirement, Jai Lucas, the 36-year-old Associate Head Coach at Duke, emerges as a compelling candidate. With a strong reputation for recruiting and player development, Lucas offers significant upside, but his lack of head coaching experience introduces uncertainty.

Miami’s basketball program has a history of intermittent success under Larrañaga, including a Sweet 16 run in 2013 and an Elite Eight appearance in 2022. However, inconsistency has been a challenge, as evidenced by their 15-17 record in 2023-24. With NIL funds estimated in the top 10-20 nationally, Miami has a solid financial foundation to attract talent, though it falls short of blue-blood programs like Duke or Kentucky. This positions the Hurricanes to compete for high-level recruits but requires strategic coaching to maximize their resources.

Lucas has built an impressive résumé as an assistant coach at Texas, Kentucky, and Duke:
  • Recruiting Excellence: Named the second-best recruiter nationally in 2021-22 at Kentucky, Lucas has secured top-10 classes (e.g., Jarrett Allen at Texas, Cooper Flagg at Duke) and has deep ties to talent-rich regions like Texas and the Southeast.
  • Player Development: He excels at developing guards and big men, producing NBA-caliber talent.
  • Defensive Acumen: As Duke’s defensive coordinator, he’s contributed to top-30 national rankings in points allowed and field goal percentage defense.
At Miami, Lucas could elevate the program by leveraging his recruiting prowess to land top talent, particularly in the Southeast, and instilling a defensive identity to address recent inconsistencies. His player development skills could maximize Miami’s roster, aligning with the program’s NIL spending power. However, his lack of head coaching experience is a notable risk—he’ll need to quickly adapt to program leadership, in-game strategy, and staff coordination, areas untested in his assistant roles.

Fans should anticipate a gradual build with Lucas, with tangible progress by his second or third year:
  • Year 1: Focus on establishing a defensive foundation and roster cohesion. A .500 ACC record and a potential NIT berth are realistic, with an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament if transfers contribute immediately.
  • Year 2: With a full recruiting cycle, Lucas could secure a top-20 class, pushing Miami into the top half of the ACC and earning an NCAA Tournament bid (e.g., 7-10 seed).
  • Year 3: A top-10 recruiting class could position Miami as a consistent NCAA Tournament team and a dark horse for ACC contention, potentially landing a 3-5 seed and making a postseason splash.
Lucas’s recruiting edge and Miami’s NIL resources suggest the Hurricanes could become a regular NCAA Tournament contender, but instant success is unlikely given his inexperience. Patience will be key as he transitions to head coaching.

To contextualize Lucas’s potential trajectory, consider these parallels:
  • Best-Case Scenario: Brad Stevens at Butler
    Stevens, a young assistant with no head coaching experience, took over Butler in 2007 and led them to back-to-back national championship games (2010, 2011). Like Lucas, he excelled in recruiting and player development, building a defensive-minded program that punched above its weight. If Lucas adapts quickly, he could mirror Stevens, turning Miami into a top-25 program with deep tournament runs.
  • Worst-Case Scenario: Chris Mullin at St. John’s
    Mullin, a former NBA star with no coaching experience, struggled at St. John’s (2015-2019), finishing with a 59-73 record. Despite strong recruiting ties, he faltered in program management and strategy. If Lucas fails to adjust to head coaching demands, Miami could face a similar stagnant period.
Conclusion
Jai Lucas is a high-upside hire for Miami. Jai Lucas brings elite recruiting, player development, and defensive skills to Miami, offering the potential to elevate the Hurricanes into a consistent NCAA Tournament team by Year 2 or 3. With Miami’s top-10-20 NIL funds, he could capitalize on the program’s resources to compete in the ACC. However, his lack of head coaching experience introduces risk, and fans should expect a learning curve. In a best-case scenario, Lucas could emulate Brad Stevens’s rapid success. For now, realistic expectations center on steady improvement, with the promise of a brighter future if Lucas grows into the role.

Alt candidates: Wes Miller from Cinci, Chris Holtmann from Ohio St, Anthony Grant from Dayton. Ideal options: Tommy Lloyd from Arizona, Eric Musselman from Arkansas.
Click to expand...


Nice write up by Grok.

My concern is this: One and dones will be difficult to recruit to Miami. So my question is how heavily will Lucas hit the portal? Don't get me wrong, I believe a good balance of recruits and portal players is needed to establish culture and create equilibrium. That looks different for every coach at every program, though.

One thing I have noticed is a lot of coaches are moving away from recruiting high school kids. By and large the days of bringing in a class of freshmen and growing a program over 4 years are gone. Look at Pitino at SJU, Kelsey at Louisville, Pope at Kentucky, May at Michigan, etc.

That's the model now. I'm interested in seeing how Lucas navigates these waters at Miami, because recruiting kids to a blue blood program is a different ballgame.
 
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JZCane0825 said:
Duke boards thought he could do better than Miami fwiw
Click to expand...
They are just worried Miami has a younger guy with recruiting chops! Miami under Jim Larranage was recruiting the best in Miami history! He was getting highly rated 4star, 5star and Mcdonald AA! Well, at 75, Jim clear was done like Coach K, Nick Saban and other older coaches with the new NCAA with NIL and transfer portal! Now, Miami has young HC at 36. NIL is all he knows. Those Duke people fear, a young Jai Lucas could elevate Miami national recruiting even better than Jim Larranage. That would be a threat to Duke recruiting. It doesn't suck to play CBB at Miami at Coral Gables in the ACC! Larrage was putting alot of guys in the NBA!
 
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Calinative said:
Grok Evaluation of Jai Lucas
As Miami searches for a new head coach following Jim Larrañaga’s retirement, Jai Lucas, the 36-year-old Associate Head Coach at Duke, emerges as a compelling candidate. With a strong reputation for recruiting and player development, Lucas offers significant upside, but his lack of head coaching experience introduces uncertainty.

Miami’s basketball program has a history of intermittent success under Larrañaga, including a Sweet 16 run in 2013 and an Elite Eight appearance in 2022. However, inconsistency has been a challenge, as evidenced by their 15-17 record in 2023-24. With NIL funds estimated in the top 10-20 nationally, Miami has a solid financial foundation to attract talent, though it falls short of blue-blood programs like Duke or Kentucky. This positions the Hurricanes to compete for high-level recruits but requires strategic coaching to maximize their resources.

Lucas has built an impressive résumé as an assistant coach at Texas, Kentucky, and Duke:
  • Recruiting Excellence: Named the second-best recruiter nationally in 2021-22 at Kentucky, Lucas has secured top-10 classes (e.g., Jarrett Allen at Texas, Cooper Flagg at Duke) and has deep ties to talent-rich regions like Texas and the Southeast.
  • Player Development: He excels at developing guards and big men, producing NBA-caliber talent.
  • Defensive Acumen: As Duke’s defensive coordinator, he’s contributed to top-30 national rankings in points allowed and field goal percentage defense.
At Miami, Lucas could elevate the program by leveraging his recruiting prowess to land top talent, particularly in the Southeast, and instilling a defensive identity to address recent inconsistencies. His player development skills could maximize Miami’s roster, aligning with the program’s NIL spending power. However, his lack of head coaching experience is a notable risk—he’ll need to quickly adapt to program leadership, in-game strategy, and staff coordination, areas untested in his assistant roles.

Fans should anticipate a gradual build with Lucas, with tangible progress by his second or third year:
  • Year 1: Focus on establishing a defensive foundation and roster cohesion. A .500 ACC record and a potential NIT berth are realistic, with an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament if transfers contribute immediately.
  • Year 2: With a full recruiting cycle, Lucas could secure a top-20 class, pushing Miami into the top half of the ACC and earning an NCAA Tournament bid (e.g., 7-10 seed).
  • Year 3: A top-10 recruiting class could position Miami as a consistent NCAA Tournament team and a dark horse for ACC contention, potentially landing a 3-5 seed and making a postseason splash.
Lucas’s recruiting edge and Miami’s NIL resources suggest the Hurricanes could become a regular NCAA Tournament contender, but instant success is unlikely given his inexperience. Patience will be key as he transitions to head coaching.

To contextualize Lucas’s potential trajectory, consider these parallels:
  • Best-Case Scenario: Brad Stevens at Butler
    Stevens, a young assistant with no head coaching experience, took over Butler in 2007 and led them to back-to-back national championship games (2010, 2011). Like Lucas, he excelled in recruiting and player development, building a defensive-minded program that punched above its weight. If Lucas adapts quickly, he could mirror Stevens, turning Miami into a top-25 program with deep tournament runs.
  • Worst-Case Scenario: Chris Mullin at St. John’s
    Mullin, a former NBA star with no coaching experience, struggled at St. John’s (2015-2019), finishing with a 59-73 record. Despite strong recruiting ties, he faltered in program management and strategy. If Lucas fails to adjust to head coaching demands, Miami could face a similar stagnant period.
Conclusion
Jai Lucas is a high-upside hire for Miami. Jai Lucas brings elite recruiting, player development, and defensive skills to Miami, offering the potential to elevate the Hurricanes into a consistent NCAA Tournament team by Year 2 or 3. With Miami’s top-10-20 NIL funds, he could capitalize on the program’s resources to compete in the ACC. However, his lack of head coaching experience introduces risk, and fans should expect a learning curve. In a best-case scenario, Lucas could emulate Brad Stevens’s rapid success. For now, realistic expectations center on steady improvement, with the promise of a brighter future if Lucas grows into the role.

Alt candidates: Wes Miller from Cinci, Chris Holtmann from Ohio St, Anthony Grant from Dayton. Ideal options: Tommy Lloyd from Arizona, Eric Musselman from Arkansas.
Click to expand...
I know we're talking about Lucas here, but how do you like paid Grok compared to others (assuming you pay)?
 
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Welp...... if we're gonna go the Asst. Coach route, then this would be considered a home run hire. If we were looking at "the best we could find", then this hire is a stand up double, IMO. I personally thought that we needed a man with head coaching experience. This conference chews up and spits out inexperienced coaches, left and right. I'll take a wait and see approach. but as I always say, "Miami is not a school for first time Head Coaches". I sure hope this works out.
 
this feels like a disaster hire to me. all of Calipari’s assistants have flopped and recruiting for Duke has to be one of the easiest jobs in college basketball.

and in the off chance that you have hit on a superstar coach here, he’s leaving for a bigger job in 3 years. so i’m not sure what the upside even is here really.

L showed that you don’t need to have some major recruiting reputation to get 4 and 5 stars to come here. put good teams on the floor, put some guys into the draft, and use your connections as a coach and guys will want to play in Miami — and of course now we have the NIL aspect. the entire direction of this hire feels misplaced to me

happy to proven wrong of course. we will see
 
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